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March 13, 2024 at 12:21 pm #2933
GVI Forex 2
EURJPY 4-Hour Chart

Red AT lines are now dominating as pre-BpJ trading sees USDJPY firm back towards 148 and offsets giving EURUSD some support.

Levels are clear on the chart with a bid while above 161.56 and the trendline.

These are fickle times ahead of the BoJ but for now there seems to be some cold feet from the JOY longs.
March 13, 2024 at 11:31 am #2930
Belgrade Bobby
Keymaster
5 Pip trades

When we talk about idea – strategy to trade for cca 5 pips profit per trade, I have to say that it is Real.

I have been trading that way in last 10 years constantly , developing different systems and learning from every single mistake that I made. It is very demanding way of trading, both physically and psychologically – and probably that is a bigger problem than achieving 5 pips…

You can use from 2 min to 5 min chart ( 1 minute is untradeable in real market conditions )

Firm Risk management has to be applied :

R/R minimum 1:2 – preferably 1:3

Stop Loss pre set and never changed

Profit taking manually depending on the situation ( experience )

Leverage High to Extremely High ( so from 1:100 – 1:500 otherwise you are wasting your time )

Never change the trading plan in between ( you enter on a signal of 3 min and decide to stick around longer as you saw something on 5,10,15 min chart – you’re dead )

Never hesitate – just execute – or from +3 you go to -5 in seconds

Probability of your system has to be over 80%

You can’t chose which signals you’re gonna trade and which not – you must execute all of them. Or you’ll end up picking the wrong ones.

To be able to come to such a system, you have to use very simple techniques – anything even remotely complicated takes too much time – trade gone ( also, no time to do your yoga exercise prior to entering the position – coffee is ok as long as it is on the table and exactly in the same place …every single day, or you gonna have it all over your comp )

Trading can be done in hour and half to tops 2 h at the time..anything more, you are lost.

Important – you have to have a broker that gives you max 0.5 spread, or fixed 0.0 with the commission .

Depending on the day, you end up with everything between 2-3 and 30+ pips

You trade only in the bracket between Europe open and NY close

High liquidity will pump up your profits, but there are days with Low liquidity that made my day big time – somehow clearer to trade…
March 13, 2024 at 11:26 am #2928
Mtl JP
Participant
betting is open
–
“Biden and Trump clinch nominations, heading to another general election rematch” – cnn

I maintain my op that joe will “POOF!” (begone) by May / June.
of course that is a “maybe
March 13, 2024 at 11:02 am #2926
Mtl JP
Participant
Jay / 5 pip ranges / “several times 5 pips per day and you fly first class!” (Bobby ?)

IF you trade at least one lot AND don’t get caught in a breakout.

***
lots of pundits having a field day on account of jerome and his data-dependent inflation fight and will he / wont he cut and if at all in 2024
March 13, 2024 at 10:32 am #2925
GVI Forex 2
JP, when ranges are tight, a 5-pip swing can change sentiment quickly.
March 13, 2024 at 9:44 am #2924
Mtl JP
Participant
10-yr Yield 4.143% | 4:39 AM EDT
new day, maybe new way

eurdlr sentiment, so far, technically: UP
March 13, 2024 at 9:27 am #2923
Mtl JP
Participant
Reuters Mar 13, 2024 at 7:55 am GMT
ECB’s Villeroy: spring interest rate cut remains probable

PARIS, March 13 (Reuters) -The European Central Bank will probably start cutting rates during the spring, between April and June 21, as the “victory” against inflation is in sight, …. Lagarde earlier this month hinted strongly that a long-awaited rate cut would be more likely to happen at the central bank’s meeting in early June, rather than in April

EURO 1.0930
March 13, 2024 at 8:30 am #2922
GVI Forex 2
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

Big Japanese companies have agreed in full to union pay demands, a sign that workers could perhaps have pushed a bit harder, but also that wage momentum could encourage a historic policy shift by the Bank of Japan.

MORNING BID EUROPE-Japan wage deals put BOJ at centre stage
March 13, 2024 at 8:26 am #2921
Forex Cycle
Participant
AUDUSD Analysis: Uptrend Continuation and Key Levels

AUDUSD continues its upward trajectory from 0.6477, with the recent retracement from 0.6667 likely representing a period of consolidation within the uptrend.

As long as the support at 0.6584 remains intact, the uptrend is anticipated to resume, potentially leading to a further ascent towards the 0.6750 region.

The initial resistance level to monitor is at 0.6640. A successful breakout above this level could propel the price towards testing the 0.6667 resistance. Subsequent breakthrough above 0.6667 would set the stage for a push towards 0.6750.

Conversely, a breakdown below the 0.6584 support level would signal a potential completion of the upward movement at 0.6667, potentially resulting in a decline towards the 0.6500 level.
March 13, 2024 at 3:16 am #2920
Mtl JP
Participant
ya ya yeah
–
A focus at the next Fed meeting will be whether most officials continue to expect three cuts this year—or fewer

Inflation Uptick Unlikely to Derail Fed Cut Later This Year

we ll all be making a bet on that
March 13, 2024 at 12:55 am #2919
GVI Forex 2
UK GDP (WED): Expectations are for a 0.2% expansion in M/M GDP for January vs. the 0.1% contraction seen in December. The December release saw a 0.1% M/M contraction vs. the 0.2% expansion in November with the monthly data coinciding with the Q4 metrics which showed the UK entered into a technical recession at the end of 2024.

For the upcoming report, Pantheon Macro is of the view that the January data will show the UK “leaving last year’s minor recession firmly behind”. The consultancy adds that the 3.4% jump in January retail sales will explain “almost all” of the 0.2% M/M expansion it expects for the January data.

Furthermore, Pantheon is of the view that strength in the upcoming release will not be a “flash in the pan” given that PMI data has continued to recover since October with the February composite metric of 53.0 consistent with 0.25% Q/Q growth. From a policy perspective, a favourable release will likely put the UK on track to exceed the BoE’s mild 0.1% forecast for Q1 Q/Q GDP. However, it is unlikely to shift market pricing materially given the Bank’s ongoing focus on real wages and services inflation.

Newsquaek.com
March 13, 2024 at 12:06 am #2918
Mtl JP
Participant
Reminder to the peasants
“‘Theirs not to reason why, / Theirs but to do and die’”
—
* Fund managers want the EU to issue debt to upgrade defense
* Underspending has left states vulnerable to Russian aggression

BBRG Bond Investors Are Lining Up to Fund the War Against Putin

Sadliest best line – imho : “A debt-funded EU defense program “would be a very welcome development — an Hamiltonian moment so to say,” said Kaspar Hense, a senior portfolio manager at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, referring to the Treasury secretary who in 1790 helped turn the US into a federation by pooling the debt of various states. “I would not worry about there not being demand.”
March 12, 2024 at 10:52 pm #2917
Mtl JP
Participant
ahead of fed blackout next week
–
Citadel’s Ken Griffin says the Fed shouldn’t cut too quickly, citing big tailwinds supporting inflation

all that is missing is for players to come around to ken’s idea and re-price their eagerness for FED cutting
March 12, 2024 at 9:07 pm #2916
GVI Forex 2
XAUUSD 4-hour Chart – Is the high in at 2195 for now?

Is XAUUSD set up for a correction?

Technicians will point to a wedge formed by trendlines on both sides.

I can only go by what AT shows me. When there are 3 lines, in this case blue, drawn off the high, it is often followed by an acceleration in the direction of the lines. In this case, it would be to the downside.

Watch the up trendline to see if it holds or can be broken.
March 12, 2024 at 7:25 pm #2914
SF Monedge
Participant
Ok. The market is trying to fill the gap in GbpChf around 1.2630. This is where I have sell orders. Make or break. If make, cancel and ride. If not, sell.
March 12, 2024 at 7:18 pm #2913
Mtl JP
Participant
us electioneering now under way
–
cnn’s oliver darcy thinks cnbc squawk box’s joe kernan reports to him:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/12/media/cnbc-trump-interview-lies/index.html

got myself some popcorn
March 12, 2024 at 7:13 pm #2912
SF Monedge
Participant
JP – As you know so well. international markets are fluid. And much money flow. Fascinating actually. I learned, among other things, as explained to me from many CTA’s, including a guy in San Diego who told me “markets overshoot.” So to trade that philosophy requires patience and taking a lump or two. If you are limited in capital, we must be as precise as possible. What I found is to pat attention to the big picture and navigate inward so you can recognize money flow. But do not discount the larger picture. I do not know everything.
March 12, 2024 at 7:00 pm #2911
Mtl JP
Participant
monedge … the CBs are trying to herd cats and gv forum is a quilting bee – aka husking bee to strip maize
March 12, 2024 at 6:53 pm #2910
Mtl JP
Participant
as reuters reports :
post CPI
–
Fed seen on hold until June, with rate-cut pace in focus
March 12 (Reuters) – A second straight month of stronger-than-expected inflation has effectively shut the door on the possibility of a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut before June, and makes back-to-back reductions after that look increasingly less likely. …/,,
March 12, 2024 at 6:49 pm #2909
SF Monedge
Participant
JP – As you know so well. international markets are fluid. And much money flow. Fascinating actually. I learned, among other things, as explained to me from many CTA’s, including a guy in San Diego who told me “markets overshoot.” So to trade that philosophy requires patience and taking a lump or two. If you are limited in capital, we must be as precise as possible. What I found is to pat attention to the big picture and navigate inward so you can recognize money flow. But do not discount the larger picture.
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What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum

For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.

We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!

What is Risk Management in Trading?

Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.

It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.

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In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.

Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading

Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:

Not Setting a Trading Plan:

Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.

Not Understanding Risk:

Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.

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Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:

Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.

Over-Trading:

Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.

Not Diversifying Risk:

Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.

Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?

Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.

Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.

Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.

Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.

What are Some Common Risk Management Strategies?

Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.

Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.

How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan

Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.

A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:

never increasing position size

never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.

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Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.

Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.

Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.

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