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US OPEN
USD firmer, EUR and GBP hit by JPY-action on Ueda’s press conference, US futures a touch firmer ahead of FOMC
Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.
5 Things You Need to Know
European bourses began the session on the backfoot with the risk tone dented as a few potential factors influenced, US futures modestly firmer pre-Fed
USD firmer, EUR and GBP hit by JPY-action on Ueda’s press conference; BoJ itself was as expected, Ueda began balanced but had some hawkish points in his presser
Fixed income initially benefited on the slip in the risk tone but has since eased off best with USTs now slightly softer into the FOMC
Crude remains pressured after Tuesday’s geopolitical developments while Gas has picked up as strikes on energy infrastructure seemingly continue
Ukraine’s Zelensky to speak with US’ Trump on Wednesday and hopes a ceasefire will eventually be implemented
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Watch 150
Chart showing an upside risk but would need to get through the pivotl/magic150 to expose…
…potential tough levels at 150.18 and 151.30… at risk while above 149.09
Otherwise, expect more chop ahead of the FOMC but only below 149.09 would negate the current risk on the upside
High so far today 150.02
EURUSD 15 MIN CHART – Watch 1.09
Support: 1.0868-73
Resistance 1.0911. 1.0929 (only above it would negate the downside risk)
1.09 has printed except one day when high was 1.0897) 7 days in a row…. Range over this period has been 1.0921-1.0946
While 1.09 is not a magic level, the longer this pattern goes on the greater the risk of a directional move once it is broken.
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – PAY ATTENTION
I always pay attention when any instrument trades around the :50” level….
This time it is XAUUSD pausing below 3050 (high 3045)
It is hard to call for a correction given the strength of trend but stall below 3050 suggests some consolidation
BUT only below 3000 would dent the risk on the upside, below 2978 would negate it..
Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows
… the dollar trading firmer
EURUSD back to 1.09 for the 7th day in a row after running stops to a low at 1.0873. Note a failure again to make a serious run above 1.0950 (this time paused below it).
Perhaps some disappointment the Trump-Putin call did not result in a full ceasefire
USDJPY 150 briefly tested (high 150.02) after the BoJ kept policy steady
Turkish lira smashed following arrest of chief political rival
XAUUSD consolidating after surging to another record high yesterday
Looking ahead… Fed day today… see detailed FOMC preview
NAS100 WEEKLY CHART _ Similar to US500
The current pattern is 4 weeks in a row down… lower highs/lower lows => 4 red candles
To break the pattern and reverse the risk it would need a higher low/higher high above 20120.
An inside week would suggest just a pause.
Extending the pattern would be bearish, which makes the 19113 low most important.
Posted over the weekend in GTA
CHART OF THE WEEK – US500 WEEKLY
With the focus on equities to set the risk on/risk off mood, the current pattern in US500 is my chart of the week.
The current pattern is 4 weeks in a row down… lower highs/lower lows => 4 red candles
To break the pattern and reverse the risk it would need a higher low/higher high above 5750).
An inside week would suggest just a pause.
Extending the pattern would be bearish, which makes the 5504 low most important.
(Note there iw a double bottom at .5597).
See if you can apply the lesson from reading this article to others (hint: EURUSD making a fresh run at its upsaide)
How was GOLD (XAUUSD) a victim of collateral damage?
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What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
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In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
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Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
What are Some Common Risk Management Strategies?
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
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Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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