Just posted in our blog
Good reading during the wait for the FOMC
What is President Trump’s Tariff Game Plan?
Watch the Dot Plots
FOMC dot plot projections are updated at today’s meeting. Given the economic uncertainties resulting from tariffs, Fed members will have a hard time making interest rate projections.
What is the dot plot?
The FOMC dot plot is a chart published by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve that shows the interest rate projections of its members. It is released four times a year as part of the Summary of Economic Projections (from the internet).
European rally faces tariff reckoning
Is it a time for some clear thinking ?
·        STOXX 600 up 0.1%
·        IT firm Softcat pops on results
·        Fed rate decision awaited
·        Turkish assets tumble
·        Wall St futures inch up
·        Fast money investors have been a key force behind this year’s strong rally in Europe, and now that real money flows are starting to pour in, tariff risks are back to the fore.
·        This could keep volatility high and curb gains near term, say Barclays, pointing to the April 2 deadline by which reciprocal tariff rates in the U.S. are intended to take effect.
·        “A ‘worst case’ 25% blanket tariff, should it materialise, would indeed take away most of the growth expected this year in Europe,” says strategist Emmanuel Cau at the UK bank.
·        “However, US goods exports are only c.12% of revenues for (the STOXX 600)… And, with tariff losers underperforming notably ytd, some of the risks are arguably priced in.”
·        Despite the short-term risks, Cau is upbeat about the long-term as a landmark fiscal reform in Germany will likely boost the broader European growth for 2026 and beyond.
·        This could drive “more inflows/rotation”, Cau notes.
·        As a result, Barclays has doubled its 2026 EPS growth forecast for the STOXX SXXP to 8%, lifting the year-end target to 580 from 545 – a 4.7% upside to Tuesday’s close.
EURO 1.0887
–
PUPPY CAME TO REST ATM IN THE HIGHER 1.088″s after majestically failing to pierce N of 1.0950
on the larger time frames puppy still in uP trend and still I d be looking to B-o-minorDips
for this puppy to turn in its trand would probably take over 100 – 125 pips dump and stay there.
which raises the Q of what thinng would make the dollar rally thusly
–
14:00 FOMC decision on policy around “money”
— players and pundits are expecting no change (to 4.5%)
— markets is pricing total of 50bps easing for all of 2025 max.
—- half hour later jerome will try to explain his and gang’s thinking about inlation that is NOT working its way towards his 2% target and that in the by tariff muddied and fogged environment. Jerpme may try to bambooxle players using his staff’s dot-plot and thus try to wash his hands off any allusions to future directional prognostication.
At this junction for the dollar to rally players would somehow have to draw a perception that the FED is in a hawk mood (if only to try to piss off donald)
European stocks steady while U.S. futures tick up, Turkish assets tumble
·        European stocks little changed, U.S. futures up
·        Investors focused on tariff and growth concerns
·        Turkish assets drop after arrest of Erdogan rival
European shares struggled for direction on Wednesday while U.S. futures ticked up after a selloff on Wall Street, as investors waited for the Federal Reserve rates decision later in the day.
Meanwhile, Turkish stocks, bonds and the lira all slid, helping boost the safe-haven U.S. dollar, after authorities detained President Tayyip Erdogan’s main political rival on Wednesday.
TURKISH SELL-OFF
The Turkish lira slid in its biggest daily fall since the peak of the country’s most recent currency crisis in June 2023 and last traded at around 38 per dollar, down around 4%Â USDTRY.
Investors ditched Turkish assets after authorities detained Ekrem Imamoglu, the Istanbul mayor, on Wednesday on charges including corruption and aiding a terrorist group. The main opposition party called the arrest “a coup against our next president”.
USDJPY
The yen weakened against the dollar, which rose 0.3% to 149.805 in volatile trade as investors mulled the BOJ decision to hold rates steady and comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda
he widely expected BOJ decision underscored policymakers’ preference to spend more time gauging how mounting global economic risks from higher U.S. tariffs could affect Japan’s fragile recovery.
“The decision to leave monetary policy unchanged itself is not a surprise, so its impact on exchange rates is limited. However, the earlier-than-usual timing of the announcement seems to have led financial markets to initially interpret that the BOJ (did not consider) bringing forward a rate hike,” said Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at SMBC.
Dollar rises ahead of Fed; Turkish lira drop reins in G10 currencies
Key points:
·        Dollar up, Fed decision key for markets on Wednesday
·        Safe haven currencies rise after Turkey lira plunges
·        Yen up after BOJ stands pat on rates
·        Euro stays near five-month peak on German fiscal reform
The dollar rallied on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, but retreated from the day’s highs after markets stabilised from an early shock caused by the detention of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s main rival.
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What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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