Yen futures trended down all of last week (strength in UsdJpy). What I would like to see is a drop toward 153.80 so I can get on the buy side again and if it holds so will I.
EurJpy is going in the opposite direction of UsdJpy and for many a good reason. Fundamentals matter and Europe’s economic ideologies are failing again albeit gradually. Socialism is a wonderful idea because not everyone can work and people need help. It has never worked however. Hopefully some better ideas come about in years to come.
The US is about to go on an economic eruption unless it is sabotaged.
Following the choice of a new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, I have added an addendum to this timely article.
Why the Choice of the US Treasury Secretary is Important for Trading.
I would just like to comment regarding the price behavior of Thursday and Friday of this week.
A lot of people were waiting to pounce on a perceived bottom in Euro, Sterling, Swiss, and EurJpy at what amounted to mass positioning at a 6 month low being run through by a very aggressive sword.
Even a lot of professionals were hit hard there when markets fired through it like an out of control train.
So the question many ask is .. well then what use are pivots and if you only go with momentum or a combination you still don’t know positively what the outcome will be so what do I do?
1.     Don’t become top and bottom happy.
2.     Don’t think momentum is the only way to go.
3.     Never convince yourself you are perfect if you go on a long win streak.
Answer: Pick those spots but be fleet of foot to adjust when necessary even when it means taking a small loss and immediately going with the reverse of what you thought would transpire.
I have been at this for a long time and have dealt with a lot of CTA’s on a personal level. I was one, albeit small.
If you wish to converse I am very receptive and helpful and can be reached through Jay with Global View by email.
There is a light economic calendar in the coming week but it pays to look ahead after the way the EURUSD reacted to the weaker PMIs on Friday
NewsquawkWeek Ahead:Highlights 25 th-29nd November 2024
President elect Trump nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary
Mr. Bessent, the founder of the investment firm Key Square Capital Management, has emerged as a central economic adviser… Unlike many on Wall Street, Mr. Bessent, 62, has also defended the use of tariffs, which are Mr. Trump’s favorite economic tool….NYT
BTCUSD – Bitcoin
High so far 99.804,98 – few bucks short of 100K 😀
So what next ??
Technically speaking , it has more room to go – that upper trend line is at 108.285 right now.
Experience wise : we should see another 2-3 days of blow of rally…
Trading wise – it is about time to cash in on any further rally.
Very simply Yen is in a buy cycle and UsdJpy is not. I would love to see futures dip again to start next week for another solid entry in spot. EurJpy is not moving with UsdJpy well and so for that one remains a good sell. Maybe long term. You really do benefit from at least paying attention to fundamentals.
GBPUSD WEEKLY CHART -8 down weeks in a row
EURGBP at .8310 says GBPUSD is being pulled along for the ride by the falling EURUSD.
It has been 8 down weeks in a row so until/unless this pattern changes, it will stay in a sell mode but dependent on EURUSD for direction.
Key focal point is 1.25, solidly below it would be needed to put 1.2444 and the 1.2298 2024 low in play.
1.0220/1.2298 = .,8310
OnlineBroker.Fr is the best resource for French language information on the best online trading platforms and crypto exchanges in France.
https://www.onlinebroker.fr
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What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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