I would not make a big thing out of the tariff threat. Trump is just setting the table to negotiate for more balanced terms because at present there are imbalances. I don’t believe global trade will be disrupted significantly other than how the import/export supply chain is managed and some carry over strength in USD.
US public debt per capita
It is doubtful this trend will change under the new administration… risk is that it could accelerate
As of October 31, 2024, the US public debt per capita is $103,410, which is a 7.17% increase from the previous year. This is a moderate increase from the previous month, when the per capita debt was $102,810.
The total US debt has been increasing at an average rate of 5% per year since 2001. In 2023, the total federal debt was $34 trillion.
(AI Overview)
Yen futures are pulling back and rebalancing, the dominant flows are uphill. There is another good sell side UsdJpy trade coming up and especially EurJpy due to its clear fundamental weakness that is growing in economic terms. Futures 6500 is an area where larger orders are to rebalance uphill in Yen futures. If flows remain consistent it may get there in about 90 minutes. Hopefully.
Part of what is transpiring is there is enthusiasm and a risk on tone which is largely carrying out in stocks, which is putting pressure on the Dollar. Bearing in mind that is not a constant, it often simply goes that way. The next cycle is likely to be related to pre-holiday hedging and Dollar strength again due to this condition and others, partly related to statements on tariffs. This also eases pressure on the FED to continue lowering rates without the same level of concern over inflation.
So Dollar should remain strong overall and temper inflation concerns and retain attraction at the same time. It will move in cycles.
Trading in a Holiday Season
Lots have been said on this issue, and all of it was more or less right.
Trying to guess the next move on any given pair can be at least difficult if not impossible.
There are many reasons behind it, and I am going to highlight the most important ones :
End of Year positions squaring
Lack of interest to establish new positions
Low liquidity
Traders going places
But I want to give you another angle of trading at the very end of the year…
Nothing has changed in the dominant US Dollar dynamic. The market is simply rebalancing after yesterday’s run. There are good buy side trades coming up if you are patient. Use USDSgd 1.3430 as a reference point of where larger sized entities maybe. And if you do not trade UsdChf (Franc) you can use it as a guage as well with an eye on 8830. On a fundamental basis, yesterday’s run was fundamental news driven but without proof, hence the rebalancing. In time markets will reconsider and make the “what if” adjustment right back up. Give it time. I scored/booked 295 points since Sunday in multiple currency pairs, I am fairly precise right now.
Position adjustments rather than adding to risk is still the way of iy during this weeek. There was hope for more after Trump’s tariff comments and in this regard CAD and MXN remai the biggest losers.
There is some US data due out at 15:00 GMT
Richmond Fed, CB Consumer Confidencde, New Home Sales
OnlineBroker.Fr is the best resource for French language information on the best online trading platforms and crypto exchanges in France.
https://www.onlinebroker.fr
If you are just starting out with forex trading and you are still searching for an online trading platform to go with, then check out the top online trading platforms in review by business 24-7 Forex traders may find daytrading.com a powerful resource. In addition to the broker comparison tables, it also provides insight and strategy on short term, intraday forex trades.
You may find this useful U.K. Investors may find investing.co.uk a useful resource. In addition to the broker comparisons table, the site also provides detailed reviews, bonus information and strategy articles.
Current and potential Scandinavian currency traders will likely enjoy Valutahandel.se , a website about forex trading in Sweden.
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What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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