EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Only a retracement
As we have been saying, the EURUSD rebound should be treated as a retracement unless `1.0610 is taken out.
Stall at 1.0596 confirms this view.
For today, 1.05 will clearly dictate whether it can go after1.0455-75.
Current down momentum stays intact as long as 1.0537 is not broken.
Only 1.0545-50+ would retore a bid.
The euro fell due to political uncertainty in France, where the government faces a no-confidence vote, while the US dollar strengthened ahead of a key week for US interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s decision on December 18 is expected to impact markets, with traders predicting a 66% chance of a quarter-point rate cut. Global shares were lifted by tech stocks, and oil prices rose after Chinese manufacturing data, while gold sank under pressure from the strong dollar.
THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)
Monday kicks off with final PMIs for November, with Germany’s manufacturing PMI expected to remain at a weak 43.2 and the UK’s at 48.6. In the US, the ISM manufacturing index may edge up to 47.6, still signaling contraction as concerns about weak demand and policy uncertainty linger.
Tuesday, South Korea’s inflation is forecasted at 1.6% annually for November after a rate cut last week due to economic slowdown fears.
Wednesday’s PMI updates for France, Germany, and the UK are expected unchanged, while the US ADP report forecasts private payrolls rising by 165,000.
Thursday, Eurozone retail sales should hold steady for October, while the US trade deficit is expected to narrow to $75.4 billion. Canada’s trade deficit is projected at C$0.65 billion.
Friday, Japan’s household spending is predicted to drop 2.6% annually due to sluggish demand, while US nonfarm payrolls may rebound by 200,000, with unemployment ticking up to 4.2%. Canada expects a modest 30,000 job gain, with unemployment rising slightly to 6.6%.
Econoday
In scanning headlines and journalistic pieces I see nothing which would ring risk alarm bells, despite conflicts overseas. So if there are no dramatic events it seems this week could be a risk on environment even if not stellar. I mentioned Friday I felt we are entering a stock picking environment for a bit and so that is how I am approaching the week until proven wrong.
That being the case there is potential for non-US Dollar currencies to benefit after an obvious sell cycle.
There was a 2nd bite of the cherry with the EurJpy rally to 162 but the UsdJpy could not maintain 150 and so now there will be trapped longs in both pairs who will try to manage their positions Sunday night.
All I will say is “how is that working out for them?”
Now for those that either missed out or are looking for a bottom to buy I say
Beware of what you wish for
Latest USDJPY and EURJPY Updates From the Savvy Trader
XRPUSD
Ripple Surpasses Solana as XRP Price Hits 6-Year High Above $2
The impressive performance of Ripple’s native token continues with another surge in the past 24 hours that pushed its price above $2 for the first time since early 2018.
In the process, XRP has surpassed SOL to become the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
Big week ahead for US data with fu;ll previews
On Tariffs.
I could be completely wrong in my views on Tariffs but …
The Congressional Research Service notes that Trump’s approach to tariffs marks a departure from previous administrations, employing Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.
The Congressional Budget Office projects the 2025 deficit will approach $2 trillion. The Tax Policy Center estimates that Trump’s tariffs could reduce the deficit by about $200 billion, or roughly 10%.
The effect can benefit domestic companies by making goods cheaper than imports and increase demand.
The US Trade Imbalance is almost 5 times that of the nearest deficit holder, Great Britain, almost 6 times that of France, and well over 10 times that of Japan.
The US Trade Deficit is enormous and out of control.
The current NAFTA agreement is out of balance as is the incoming USMCA agreement as is the BRICS agreement.
If the status quo remains intact the savings of US households will continue to deteriorate.
In 2023, China registered a trade surplus of over 823 billion U.S. dollars, ranking first among all countries and territories. The United States was this year’s largest source of trade surplus for China, with a trade balance of approximately 336 billion U.S. dollars.
Tariffs are expected to drag on the US Dollar. The irony is that, if so, may also act as a buffer to any aggressive declines should they occur. On the contrary, import prices could gradually increase. But so could domestic producer prices and savings accounts. There is no pure glass of milk in this.
The finances of the US are basically on borrowed money and borrowed time. Federal special interest spending has been so insanely allocated to projects such as financing of child sex mutilation research in favor of special interest groups at a level that would make Dennis Rodman shake his head.
Something has to give.
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What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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