Robert – Re: RSI
I have been using it long ago, but never as exclusive Indicator.
RSI 9 was my favourite.
What I can see from your Cheat Sheet, idea to draw trend lines on it never crossed my mind to be honest 😀 And just by looking at it right now, I can see logic.
Let me give you some unorthodox view on RSI – my approach was the same as everyone else’s and it gave me hard time many times, until I had a chit chat with a friend of mine. At the time ( late 90’s) he was a chief dealer at one of the Central Banks.
He told me how they use it – and I was shocked :
When RSI gets above 100 or below 20 – so overbought or oversold, and hesitates to change the direction, it is a prime sign that market will continue strongly in the direction it was already in – so while we water rabbits were going contra, expecting it to change the trend, market ( and all those CB’s) were just using our stops and orders to continue their Rally.
Of course, after some time market changes the direction, but it is not the same when it does like 3-500 pips higher/lower: D
I am not saying that it always works, but just one interesting Tip for you…
good morning
DLRx a bit on the backfoot this morning after failing to hold 104
Tariff morpho-dynamics still an issue for players.
Some squeakings from ECB gumflappers about possible “easing” pause in april
Other squeakings from US gumflappers suggested that relatively high dollar is contributing to trade imbalabce and that FX is a potential tool but not right away.
Trump repeated his wish for a lower dollar.
The dollar has a nega-feel while under 104
FED yakkers kugler and williams on deck this morning
data-wise consumer conf and US housing numbers
European shares rise after German business morale improves in March
Baloise gains after results, lifts insurer sector
Energy stocks track oil prices higher after Venezuela tariffs
German business sentiment rises in March, Ifo survey shows
STOXX 600 up 0.4%
European shares rose on Tuesday after a German survey indicated business sentiment improved in the region’s largest economy, days after a historic debt deal aimed at boosting stagnating growth.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index SXXP was up 0.4% at 0910 GMT. Most regional stocks markets rose, led by a 0.9% gain in Spanish stocks IBC, followed by an 0.8% advance in French shares PX1.
Energy stocks (.SXEP) jumped 1.1% as oil prices firmed for the fifth day on supply concerns after the U.S. announced tariffs on countries that buy Venezuelan crude.
Swiss insurer Baloise BALN advanced 6% to the top of the STOXX 600 after reporting a 60.6% surge in its 2024 profit. The broader insurers index (.SXIP) firmed about 1%.
A survey from Munich-based Ifo Institute showed the business climate index rose to 86.7 in March, in line with economists’ forecast, up from 85.2 the previous month.
Germany’s plans to invest hundreds of billions of euros in defence and infrastructure have led to upgrades for the euro zone economy, contributing to European equities outperforming their U.S. counterparts so far this year.
Investors are also keeping an eye on U.S. trade policy that has roiled global markets.
Data and tariff talk lift dollar to three-week high
The dollar ticked up to an almost three-week high on Tuesday after some strong U.S. services data and cautious optimism on the tariff front.
President Donald Trump said not all of his threatened levies would be imposed on April 2 and some countries may get breaks, which helped the mood on Wall Street overnight by soothing some fears about a possible slowdown in U.S growth.
The U.S. dollar index DXY notched a fifth straight session of gains, rising 0.15% to 104.46, its highest since March 5.
Meanwhile the euro EURUSD slipped to $1.0777, around its lowest in three weeks, and was last down 0.1%.
A strong services component in S&P Global’s flash U.S. PMI figures on Monday alongside a rotation back into Wall Street stocks helped push up U.S. bond yields, which supported the dollar.
The dollar has rebounded somewhat after falling to a five-month low in mid-March as Trump’s stop-start tariff campaigns dented company and investor confidence and darkened the outlook for U.S. growth.
The view that tariffs are unambiguously bullish U.S dollar has been challenged by the price action in 2025, and so even when we get the information on what tariffs look like next week, it will be hard to know what we are supposed to do.
<p style=”text-align: center;”></p>
US OPEN
European bourses positive despite lower US futures, DXY veers lower and Crude climbs on Venezuelan tariffs
Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start!
Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.
5 Things You Need to Know
US President Trump sanctioned Venezuelan oil. Elsewhere, India has proposed the removal/reduction of tariffs
European bourses defied the lead from futures and opened in the green, US futures in the red but only modestly so and hold onto the bulk of Monday’s gains
DXY steady throughout the morning but most recently at a session low to the benefit of peers across the board, EUR also aided by Ifo
Fixed benchmarks in the red, weighed on by Ifo and supply; USTs await Fed speak
Crude bid in an extension of Monday’s action, TTF softer on Ukraine updates while Gold has inched to fresh highs
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EURUSD 4h
Supports: 1.08100, 1.07950 & 1.07750
Resistances: 1.08300, 1.08550 & 1.08900
Current momentum Up
As long as below 1.08550 daily direction is Down
Looking at 2-3 days period, EUR can spike up to around 1.09200 and then turn down again.
If above 1.09200 targets 1.10850
Personally, I would like to see this correction going all the way to 1.06850 before Up again.
In our weekly email, I called this a tricky week with attention looking ahead to next week when there will be month/quarter end (Monday) and reciprocal tariff day (Wednesday). .
Barring any definitive tariff news, this is a week that should be dominated by position adjustmwents (including pre quarter end) rather than aggressive positioning.
Markets seem to be grabbing on to any headline that gives a glimmer of hope on the tariff front.
USDJPY 4 HOUR – Chart tells the story
This is one of those days where this chart tells the whole story
Bid while above 150.18 but upside contained unless 151.30 is taken out.
Back below 150.18 would negate yesterday’s mini breakout and shift the range to 149.50-150.00
150 the clear bias setting level going forward.
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Consolidating
I hate the word consolidating but with that said…
XAUUSD still consolidating between 2999 – 3038, seemingly biding its time for another run up unless 3000 is firmly broken.
Otherwise, break of 3038 would cool lingering retracement risk
Break of 2999 would expose 2978, which is the key level to maintain the daily uptrend. .
Using my platform as a HEARMAP shows
…the dollar trading close to unchanged after briefly extending its rebound overnight.
EURUSD 1.08 is the bias setting level…. what caight my eye is the low (1.0777) poauxed above the 1.0765 ley support/target. .
XAUUSD a touch firmer after holding iff another run at 3000
US equities consolidating and so far not following through on yesterday’s rally.
Light news day… headline watch remains on the next Trump tariff comment
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What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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