Forum Replies Created
-
European stocks steady while U.S. futures tick up, Turkish assets tumble
· European stocks little changed, U.S. futures up· Investors focused on tariff and growth concerns
· Turkish assets drop after arrest of Erdogan rival
European shares struggled for direction on Wednesday while U.S. futures ticked up after a selloff on Wall Street, as investors waited for the Federal Reserve rates decision later in the day.
Meanwhile, Turkish stocks, bonds and the lira all slid, helping boost the safe-haven U.S. dollar, after authorities detained President Tayyip Erdogan’s main political rival on Wednesday.
TURKISH SELL-OFF
The Turkish lira slid in its biggest daily fall since the peak of the country’s most recent currency crisis in June 2023 and last traded at around 38 per dollar, down around 4% USDTRY.
Investors ditched Turkish assets after authorities detained Ekrem Imamoglu, the Istanbul mayor, on Wednesday on charges including corruption and aiding a terrorist group. The main opposition party called the arrest “a coup against our next president”.
USDJPY
The yen weakened against the dollar, which rose 0.3% to 149.805 in volatile trade as investors mulled the BOJ decision to hold rates steady and comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda
he widely expected BOJ decision underscored policymakers’ preference to spend more time gauging how mounting global economic risks from higher U.S. tariffs could affect Japan’s fragile recovery.
“The decision to leave monetary policy unchanged itself is not a surprise, so its impact on exchange rates is limited. However, the earlier-than-usual timing of the announcement seems to have led financial markets to initially interpret that the BOJ (did not consider) bringing forward a rate hike,” said Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at SMBC.
US OPEN
USD firmer, EUR and GBP hit by JPY-action on Ueda’s press conference, US futures a touch firmer ahead of FOMC
Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.
5 Things You Need to Know
European bourses began the session on the backfoot with the risk tone dented as a few potential factors influenced, US futures modestly firmer pre-Fed
USD firmer, EUR and GBP hit by JPY-action on Ueda’s press conference; BoJ itself was as expected, Ueda began balanced but had some hawkish points in his presser
Fixed income initially benefited on the slip in the risk tone but has since eased off best with USTs now slightly softer into the FOMC
Crude remains pressured after Tuesday’s geopolitical developments while Gas has picked up as strikes on energy infrastructure seemingly continue
Ukraine’s Zelensky to speak with US’ Trump on Wednesday and hopes a ceasefire will eventually be implemented
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Watch 150
Chart showing an upside risk but would need to get through the pivotl/magic150 to expose…
…potential tough levels at 150.18 and 151.30… at risk while above 149.09
Otherwise, expect more chop ahead of the FOMC but only below 149.09 would negate the current risk on the upside
High so far today 150.02
EURUSD 15 MIN CHART – Watch 1.09
Support: 1.0868-73
Resistance 1.0911. 1.0929 (only above it would negate the downside risk)
1.09 has printed except one day when high was 1.0897) 7 days in a row…. Range over this period has been 1.0921-1.0946
While 1.09 is not a magic level, the longer this pattern goes on the greater the risk of a directional move once it is broken.
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – PAY ATTENTION
I always pay attention when any instrument trades around the :50” level….
This time it is XAUUSD pausing below 3050 (high 3045)
It is hard to call for a correction given the strength of trend but stall below 3050 suggests some consolidation
BUT only below 3000 would dent the risk on the upside, below 2978 would negate it..
Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows
… the dollar trading firmer
EURUSD back to 1.09 for the 7th day in a row after running stops to a low at 1.0873. Note a failure again to make a serious run above 1.0950 (this time paused below it).
Perhaps some disappointment the Trump-Putin call did not result in a full ceasefire
USDJPY 150 briefly tested (high 150.02) after the BoJ kept policy steady
Turkish lira smashed following arrest of chief political rival
XAUUSD consolidating after surging to another record high yesterday
Looking ahead… Fed day today… see detailed FOMC preview
NAS100 WEEKLY CHART _ Similar to US500
The current pattern is 4 weeks in a row down… lower highs/lower lows => 4 red candles
To break the pattern and reverse the risk it would need a higher low/higher high above 20120.
An inside week would suggest just a pause.
Extending the pattern would be bearish, which makes the 19113 low most important.
Posted over the weekend in GTA
CHART OF THE WEEK – US500 WEEKLY
With the focus on equities to set the risk on/risk off mood, the current pattern in US500 is my chart of the week.
The current pattern is 4 weeks in a row down… lower highs/lower lows => 4 red candles
To break the pattern and reverse the risk it would need a higher low/higher high above 5750).
An inside week would suggest just a pause.
Extending the pattern would be bearish, which makes the 5504 low most important.
(Note there iw a double bottom at .5597).
