[Mtl JP]

this peasant would like ideas on how trade this:
Reuters Explainer
–
Why huge European Central Bank losses matter

FRANKFURT (Reuters) – The European Central Bank chalked up another large financial loss in 2023, burning through the last of its provisions, and said more losses are forthcoming as high rates push up interest payments to banks.

While the bank said it can operate effectively “regardless of any losses”, the accounts have broader implications – from reputation and independence to state finances. …/.

somehow, knowing my european princes, reputation and independence are not a part of their calculus.
and when it comes to state finances, again by my own understanding, for them it is “my way or a beating” dictates

TIA for ideas

[Mtl JP]

to re-iterate what is already widely known:
jeff cox:
–
Fed officials expressed caution about lowering rates too quickly at last meeting, minutes show
Jeff Cox

players will probably need to align with what FED considers totality of data inspiring “confidence” ref jerome presser of jan 31

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD Daily Chart

Flash PMI whipsaw day: Up on stringer French flash PMI, down on weaker German PMI

The solid break of 1.0805 saw a move up that came within 9 pips of the target at 1.0897

If 1.08=1.09 has replaced the 1.07-1.08 range then 1.0850 is the obvious bias setter.

Technicals are still positive, expect support if 1.0840 holds

If not then it is back to 1.0800-20

[Mtl JP]

animal spirits unchained
–
US 10-YR 4.309% -0.014

SnP looking to hit new record, Nazdaq looking to pop up 350 pts …

nvidia up now 14%

[Mtl JP]

Feb 21 4:32 SF Monedge I think players will start to make contingency reaction investment / financial plans to the election probably much closer to it , something like 4 , 3 weeks to it.

[Mtl JP]

GVI Forex 9:29 wanna see what you missed on “solid beat” ?

an after-hours near 9% price pop

[Belgrade Bobby]

From yesterday/s A Day Ahead :

Buying at that level seems prudent, for the move to 1.08500 and even 1.08875.

FWIW today’s high has been 1.0888

So what now ?? Well, let see what happens after the US Data…

[GVI Forex 2]

German Flash PNI misses to downside led by fall in manufacturing PMI

[GVI Forex 2]

French flash PMI beats to the upside

See our Economic Calendat

[Forex Cycle]

USDJPY Analysis: Sideways Movement Continues, Resistance and Support Levels

The USDJPY pair has attempted to break below the 149.52 support level but failed and has since moved sideways within a trading range between 149.52 and 150.88.

As long as the 149.52 support level holds, the sideways movement could be seen as consolidation for the uptrend from 145.89. A breakthrough of the 150.88 resistance level could trigger another rise towards the 151.90 resistance level.

On the other hand, a breakdown below the 149.52 support level would indicate that the upside move from 145.89 has already completed at 150.88. In this case, the pair would find support around the 147.50 area.

[SF Monedge]

As noted previously, our friends at Gtwo3.com continue to maintain long positions in nearby Euro futures.  A rally through 108.62 could lead to 110.97, or so.

[GVI Forex 2]

Nividia earnings: A solid beat

[GVI Forex 2]

\EURUSD 4-hour chart: Inside day on Wednesday.

Good update Bobby. I will add my thoughts

I asked the question last week whether EURUSD is bid or bid in an offered market?

Looking at this chart technicals support the former but only if 1.0761 holds and 1.08+, trades, which would suggest there is more room on the upside.

Resistance comes in at 1.0824-39, the letter is the high for the week and then a void until 1.0897
‘

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Day Ahead

Looking at the Daily chart, seeing a Pattern emerging that is calling for further Upside  move.

Support at 1.07950 and it is quite possible to be revisited tomorrow, so Buying at that level seems prudent, for the move to 1.08500 and even 1.08875.

Tomorrow we have some important data – check Economic Calendar –

Maintain Stops , avoid being dragged into the data !

[Mtl JP]

all I am looking at is price re-action of the 10-yr

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

1D 1M settings

fwiw

[Mtl JP]

10-yr yield on the giddy-up a bit 4.317, near its 4.3290 hod

[SF Monedge]

Long usd/chf 8790 filled, we shall see, very tight stop

[Mtl JP]

should be good music to FED’s ears
ref “sacrifice ratio”
–
“Finance Chiefs Chip Away at Expenses Despite Sunnier Economic Outlook” – wsj

and then the FED will be needing to see some “confidence inspiring” numbers that “demand” is waning and associated price pressures

[SF Monedge]

Short for Eur/Jpy is 162.57 with a very, very tight stop.  Aud/Jpy is same fashion.  Not short Usd/Jpy due to USD strength overall.  These are only small pip trades and only for the bored and agile, as well as being counter trades.  Purely intra-day.  The proper call has been to be long these pairs.

[SF Monedge]

Preference this morning has been a long aud/jpy, long eur/jpy, long usd/jpy so far, but now countering out of boredom and seeing possible exhaustion even if only for small pips

[Author]

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