[GVI Forex 2]

Hi Gunther Salzburg

Re USDJPY, going strictly by the way I use AT for my charting, onLy a firm break above 151.30 would negate the lingering downside risk.

On the other side, which supports your bullish vieW, CURRENT MOMENTUM IS TILTED UP WHILE ABOVE 148.15.

[Mtl JP]

fwiw, from a post on ZH
“A Negative Surprise”: Goldman Warns Market Expectations For Trump’s April 2 Reciprocal Tariffs Are Far Too Optimistic

“Trump plans to announce his “reciprocal” tariff policy on April 2. Recent media reports suggest a more benign approach, but we believe the risks lean toward an initial tariff announcement that negatively surprises markets, for two reasons.”

[Alex Lugano]

MTL JP- I agree fully.

For me it is essential to have some logic behind it all.

To be able to not only take a position, but survive holding onto it, I need input.

I know sometimes it is just grabbing at straws, but whatever works.

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Daily

Yen has to first take out that 151 – it is EMA 50 acting as a barrier.

Supports: 150.050, 149.300 & 149.050

Resistances: obviously 151.000, 151.250 & 152.450

Pattern wise – it looks good for tomorrows break above 151, as long as the day closes above 150.100

With so much fundamentals in front of us, it is not wise to try to predict so much in advance.

 

[Mtl JP]

Lugano …”not a good thing for the economy” …

BUT President Trump tariffs policies are outstandigly good for trading FX
which is the main focus for me at least on this forum

which is something that can be explained to some folks BUT it can not be made understood by them

[Gunther Salzburg]

Is it time to start Buying USDJPY?

I think it is going for 157

Any suggestions?

[Alex Lugano]

US Dollar Index

US Dollar index hasn’t been doing much lately. We just got the strong downward push triggered by the German defence spending news which saw EU-US yield differentials jumping in favour of the Euro. As a reminder, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is basically EUR/USD upside down as the Euro makes up for 60% of the index.

This is harder to square but the greenback will most likely be influenced by the risk sentiment following the catalyst as positive news should keep rate cuts expectations around two for this year, while negative news could push those to four or more.

 

[Alex Lugano]

The markets are setting up for big moves on April 2nd
The key date for the markets is next Wednesday when the US will finally unveil the tariffs plan. Trump has been calling it “Liberation Day” and that will likely be the same for the markets as uncertainty has been historically high.

The expectations for tariffs rates is around 9% for universal and 50% on China. Q1 has been a tough quarter for the markets as the tariffs noise increased the volatility and sent markets into a spin. Uncertainty is not a good thing for the economy and we’ve been seeing that cited a lot across many business surveys.

Therefore, the best approach from a risk management perspective would be to just wait for the key date and start taking positions after the tariffs plan announcement as we will likely get some long lasting trends from there.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD may be getting some relief from this headline

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[Alex Lugano]

                         FX option expiries for 26 March 10am New York cut

[GVI Forex 2]

What I love about our forum is you never know when some post will catch your attention. This one from yesterday I kept on my blotter

March 25, 2025 at 8:59 pm#
ST London
Participant

EurUsd has a large bid at 1.0770

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin

BTC failed again in front of EMA 50

It needs support at 86.400 to hold and underpin it higher

Has to make it above 90K today-tomorrow in order to escape downward pressures.

[GVI Forex 2]

Let’s see about that 1.0770 buy order… 1.0750-65 below it.

[Dora]

First trade today – EURUSD 30 min – perfect time, perfect 1,2,3 signal. I am increasing size using previous day profits.

[Dora]

First trade today – EURUSD 30 min – perfect time, perfect 1,2,3 signal. I am increasing size using previous day profits.

[GVI Forex 2]

Chart updated in this timely blog post

What is this USDCAD chart telling us about tariffs?

[Edikan Matthew]

EURUSD Price below the 50 EMA, stochastic below 50%, breakout of the 1 hour bearish candle, I’m going short, take profit at 1 ATR, stop loss at 3 ATR

[Edikan Matthew]

[GVI Forex 2]

Durable goods orders report beats but volaitle data that is subject to big revisions.

See our Economic Data Calendar

UK Spring Statement due next

[David Shepherd]

[Author]

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