[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

Tariffs  -> Gaps => USD up, stocks down, bond yields down s

Those currencies of countries most affected, directly or indirectly,  by Trump’s tariffs hit the hardest (red arrows)

JPY the outperformer, GBP second (weaker but not as much as EUR) as UK seems not to be on the tariff hit list

Watch for headlines as Trudeau (Canada) and Sheinbaum (Mexico) are due to speak with Trump today. Note tariffs go into effect on Tuesday.

 

[Idris Sagamu]

[Mtl JP]

please …. please me !
“The EU would respond firmly to any trading partner that unfairly or arbitrarily imposes tariffs on EU goods,” – spokesperson. “There is a lot at stake.”

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD   DAILY CHART –Next on the tariff hit liat

Big gap down puts 1.0177 back on the radar… if firmly broken, then there will be calls for parity although a pivotal 1.02 may be equally important in this regard.

Watch the headlines as this is news, not technically driven. Stay aware that Trump could announce EIU tariffs at any time, which should act as a cloud over the EUR. At a minimum, expect a  limit on its upside as long as the opening week gap stays unfilled. ..

[GVI Forex 2]

Openings…

USD up sharply
Stocks down sharply
BTC down
Gold lower
Oil up
Bonds?

[GVI Forex 2]

Trump going through his list of grievances

Trade deficits

Tariffs coming for EU….. no time given

Panama Canal… China influence

Speaking with heads of Canada and Mexico… doesn’t expect anything will come of it… bears keeping an eye on it nonetheless

[GVI Forex 2]

Trump due to speak to the media at 7.20pm US EST (0020 GMT)

[GVI Forex 2]

As I have been saying EU is on Trump’s tariff hit list.

Out earlier … another reason for a EURUSD gap

Newsquawk.com

[Mtl JP]

The Dummies
Canada, Mexico strike back with retaliatory tariffs on American goods hours after Trump’s executive action

Be time soon for President Trump to deliver second spanking for misbehaving to the raskals,
squish and squeeze until they squeal, make it hurt

[GVI Forex 2]

Beware of opening week gaps: USD (likely up), stocks (likely down).

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

Monday, the PMI manufacturing finals are expected to have no revisions from the flash across France, Germany, the Eurozone area, the United Kingdom and the United States. France is expected to post 45.3, Germany 44.1, Eurozone 46.1, the United Kingdom 48.2 and the United States 50.1.

Tuesday, US JOLTS are expected to have job openings pretty flat at 8.00 million in December.

Wednesday, the PMI composite is also expected to show no change in Germany. Germany’s composite is expected to be 50.1 and 52.5 for services while the United States PMI services is expected to be 52.8.

Thursday, the United Kingdom’s Bank of England is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut to 4.5 percent as the economy is stalling. Forecasters expect the BOE to signal more rate cuts ahead as the bank updates its economic forecasts.

Also, the United States productivity and costs first estimate for the fourth quarter is expected to show an annual gain of 1.8 percent compared with 2.2 percent in Q3. Unit labor costs are seen up 3.3 percent versus 0.8 percent in Q3.

Friday, Japan’s real household spending is forecast to post a fifth straight drop in December, down 0.3 percent on year, as flat growth in real wages amid elevated costs for food and other necessities continued squeezing consumers, following a 0.4 percent dip in November. Lower temperatures supported demand for winter clothing. Forecasts range widely from a 1.0 percent drop to a 1.5 percent gain. On the month, real average expenditures by households with two or more people are expected to fall 1.4 percent after edging up 0.4 percent in November, surging 2.9 percent in October and slumping 1.3 percent in September

Econoday

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

Monday, the PMI manufacturing finals are expected to have no revisions from the flash across France, Germany, the Eurozone area, the United Kingdom and the United States. France is expected to post 45.3, Germany 44.1, Eurozone 46.1, the United Kingdom 48.2 and the United States 50.1.

Tuesday, US JOLTS are expected to have job openings pretty flat at 8.00 million in December.

Wednesday, the PMI composite is also expected to show no change in Germany. Germany’s composite is expected to be 50.1 and 52.5 for services while the United States PMI services is expected to be 52.8.

Thursday, the United Kingdom’s Bank of England is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut to 4.5 percent as the economy is stalling. Forecasters expect the BOE to signal more rate cuts ahead as the bank updates its economic forecasts.

Also, the United States productivity and costs first estimate for the fourth quarter is expected to show an annual gain of 1.8 percent compared with 2.2 percent in Q3. Unit labor costs are seen up 3.3 percent versus 0.8 percent in Q3.

Friday, Japan’s real household spending is forecast to post a fifth straight drop in December, down 0.3 percent on year, as flat growth in real wages amid elevated costs for food and other necessities continued squeezing consumers, following a 0.4 percent dip in November. Lower temperatures supported demand for winter clothing. Forecasts range widely from a 1.0 percent drop to a 1.5 percent gain. On the month, real average expenditures by households with two or more people are expected to fall 1.4 percent after edging up 0.4 percent in November, surging 2.9 percent in October and slumping 1.3 percent in September

Econoday

[Rafe]

Buy bonds and if there is rate hike risk then switch to treasuries… it pays to have good money in them and keep turning them over for smaller gains but when the right stocks come along buy ’em… all in all… if that is not suitable then there is always BAT available at a throwaway valuation of @ 3197 and headed to double in value to target GBP 6515… or a profit of USD$6000 per share just for buying right and sitting tight…

Tobacco is not from China and cigars/cigarettes are not made in the “imperial dynasty” we call China… if they were then it would become another horse meat scandal… lol

[Rafe]

GVI Forex // February 2, 2025 at 2:07 pm #18884

Thats why I sayy… be calm… & buy bonds…

I have been saying this for ever and people thought I was crazy!!!… lol

Trading History has proven me right on all counts… Always has and always will…

[Rafe]

2025: I said and hinted in 2021//2022 that 2025 will be a geopolitical year.
Trump is inaugurated in 2025 and within 1 month of his inauguration places tariffs among other actions he has already taken to save his country from chimpanzees pondering their next moves … sitting on their hunches with hands on their heads until the wild gorilla comes along … they scamper up the trees screaming in fear … perhaps not so intelligent that Armageddon is close by watching silently and waiting for them to serve themselves to him as his next meal …

[Idris Sagamu]

any correction , i used CRT

[GVI Forex 2]

A Warning for All Traders Trading Trump’s Tariff Market: Timely suggestion to all the traders out there:

[Mtl JP]

President Trump’s tariffs on

CHINA – over and abouve all kinds of impediments on already in place: 10%
MEXICO – 25%
CANADA – 25%

politicians of all by donald’s tariffs are screaming like a band of chimpanzees at sight of an approaching leopard

ON THE OTHER HAND:
WSJ opinion:
The Dumbest Trade War in History
Trump will impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for no good reason.

By The Editorial Board
5,567
January 31, 2025

[Mtl JP]

our current and still prime minister justin – maybe boy maybe girl – trudeau is to come out with a counter tit-for-tat tariff on american goods n services coming to canada iminnently this evening. donald trump has already indicated that IF trudeau dares to try to act tuff, tariff on canadian imports will be raised beyond the current 25%.

possible GAPS in the making at upcoming market open

[Mtl JP]

active week …. AND preferably volatile

“U.S. informs Canada tariffs will be imposed Tuesday
Across-the-board tariffs of 25% will be on most Canadian goods starting Tuesday, with 10% tariffs on energy, a source says” – globe and mail

[Author]

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