[Alex Lugano]

US inflation rate YoY

USIRYY Bureau of Labour Statistics

Key data points
Last release Feb 12, 2025

Actual: 3 % Forecast: 2.9 % Prior: 2.9 %

Observation period Jan 2025

Next release Mar 12, 2025

Forecast 2.90 %

Highest 23.70 % on Jun 30, 1920

Lowest −15.80 % on Jun 30, 1921

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Supports : 1.04550, 1.04150 & 1.03550

Resistances : 1.04950, 1.05200 & 1.05350

As long as it holds above 1.04600 next hour or so, it will try for higher.

Possible back drops to 1.04150 won’t change that picture, but just slow it down a bit.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

As world stocks got a fresh lift, the U.S. dollar has retreated to its lowest of the year so far on a mix of reversing U.S. Treasury yields and another delay in tariff implementation.

Multiple cross-currents have hit macro markets this week – a whipsaw effect from two big U.S. inflation reports, Washington’s push for Ukraine peace talks alongside threats of sweeping tariffs and another heavy schedule of corporate earnings and Treasury debt sales.

But as Friday trading gets underway, the net impact on the dollar index has been to sink it to its lowest in almost two months – driven in part by a benign take on January’s U.S. producer price report and a Ukraine-related rally in the euro.

Morning Bid: Unloved dollar hit by tariff delays, yield recoil

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQYAWK US OPEN’

Indices mixed amid varied Russia/Ukraine commentary, USD lower ahead of Retail Sales

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.

5 Things You Need to Know

European bourses & US futures began the session mixed but have deteriorated on geopols; Luxury lifted by Hermes post-earnings.

USD remains pressured post-Trump tariff announcement, Antipodeans lead.

Bonds retain a bearish biasbut are off lows as geopolitics drives recent price action

Gas continues to deflate, crude rangebound & metals advance.

Russia has said its officials are not attending the Munich conference, US VP Vance & Ukraine’s Zelensky set to meet at 11:00EST; recent remarks from Zelensky have tempered recent optimism

Source: Newsquawk.com

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – 1.05 OR BUST

A tepid run at 1.05 so far (high 1.0487)… key chart level is 1.0534_

Needs to hold 1.0440-50 as support to keep the focua on 1.05 and away from 1.04.

Note, 1.05 is likely an options barrier so much may depend on how hard it is defended.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

GER30 4 HOUR CHART –  Just a pause?

Tentative sign of a pause (22629) but keeps a boid as long as it trades above 22000.

Keep an eye on EURUSD to see if a stronger currency negatively impacts the currency.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART   Bid but a Double top

2942 record high retested (double top)

For a new leg targeting the much talked about 3000 level, 2942 not only has to be broken but then become support.

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP

TGIF

Dollar is weaker across the board

Question for today is how hard 1.05 likely options barrier) will defended.

Key event: US Retail Sakes

Reminder: US markets are closed Monday for President’s Day

.

 

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 106.80/30 zone – on the daily

evokes conciderations of players’ reasessing of hedge holdings of the dollar

and a prospect of a woosh of the dollar (to say euro 1.08)

[Adam Global]

Eur is closing in on 1.05 quarter point

It may resist since it would be double top

[Adam Global]

GBP has broken the 1.25000 quarter point

1.2600 or 1.2700 is expected to hit thats my 61.8 fib level

Watch out 4 retail sales 2day 15h30

[Adam Global]

Bye buy gold 📈 2955.00 is expected to hit today or by Monday

3000.00 is the expected globally by everyone

[Adam Global]

Bitcoin still consolidating inside the triangle

Breakout is expected below 95000.00 or above 100000.00

[Adam Global]

Japan really fooled alot of people thinking 155.0000 will hit but near miss

N trendline still holding

150.000 still coming or

[GVI Forex 2]

Looking ahead to next week’s RBA meeting

Source: Newsquawk.com

[GVI Forex 2]

Looking ahead to next week’s RBA meeting

Source: Newsquawk.com

[GVI Forex 2]

As I noted, Trading in the New Trump Effect Era: Actions Speak Louder Than Words.

Well, President Trump is never at a loss for words as he has followed through on his campaign promise to impose tariffs.

However, these are still just words until tariffs are actually enacted.

Should Traders Take President Trump at His Word?

[GVI Forex 2]

Many have seen me say when there is a geopolitical event or crisis, markets tend to price in the worst-case outcome and reassess later. The Trump tariff soap opera feels like a combination of the two (geopolitical event/crisis)..

After President Trump took office markets started to price in the worst-case impact of tariffs (e.g. inflation/higher bond yields/trade war, etc).

EURUSD, for example, set its low at 1.01777 on January 13 and one month later it has had an erratic recovery that has 1.05 on its radar, helped by hope for an end to the Ukraine war.

My point is if you take a step back after the frenetic headline driven whipsaw trading seen each day this week, there is some logic to the price action. The worst-case outcome does not appear will materialize

As you can see in forex, equities and bonds, markets have adjusted accordingly to reality. At a minimum, a two-way risk has been restored to what looked like might become a one-way street.

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 DAILY CHART – Record high looms

Record 22141 high is on the radar as long as it trades above 21533, stronger risk while above 21907.

The star remains Meta, extending its winning streak to 19 DAYS IN A ROW

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – High on the radar?

Fresh run at the upside that would put the record 6118 high on the radar while 6092 becomes support.

[Author]

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