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Maybe I’ve missed it but nowhere is anyone talking recession.
Is the U.S. headed for a recession by the Savvy Trader?
EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – Upside capped
1.0418 AMAZING TRADER resistance so far capping the upside.
1.0400 former key support_is pivtoal
Beware of Trump headlines although focus today should be on Zelensxky’s meeting.
Trading tip 11: Take a Pause and Review: Stops as They Drive the Forex Market
Let me start by saying the forex market is on a never-ending quest to run stops. Master this concept and you can learn to beat the market.
Look at this chart and tell me whether you woud have been able to identify in advance where stops werel ying.
Ad in this chart you can see where there were stops (i.e. low of the day)
While there are stops in all markets, it is easier to identify those in forex and use that knowledge to your advantage.
One reason is that the only rate feed used by everyone is in forex. The only difference one might see is in the spread quoted by a broker. Otherwise, everyone involved in forex are essentially looking at the same chart levels.
The more who look at a specific level the more significant it becomes.
It is therefore easier to identify where stops might be lying vs.CFDs, where rate feeds can vary between brokers, ecen those uswing thw same symbol.
In this tip, I am going to refer you to previous tips: (scroll down)
Trading Tip 3: Use stops and Live to Trade Another Day
Trading Tip 3A: Watch Out for Stops and Use Them to Your Advantage!
And to this video, which I suggest watching or watching again.
If you then have any quextions, postask away.
It pays to take a moment to revisit this artice, especially given the sharp moves down in stockx this month
Have you ever heard of the term “month-end rebalancing?”
US OPEN
ES/NQ gain ahead of US PCE, sentiment hit amid trade angst but off worst levels
Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.
4 Things You Need to Know
European bourses are in the red, but with sentiment off lows; ES/NQ gain ahead of US PCE.
USD remains underpinned by trade angst; Antipodeans lag given the risk-tone.
Bonds bid after Trump’s latest on tariffs & tech pressure, though benchmarks are off highs.
Commodities lower on month end and ahead of weekend uncertainty.
XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Outside week
At a minimum, the 8 week pattern of higher lows/higher highs was broken by an outside week. This leaves the focus on last week’s low at 2877 to see iit finishes the day below it for an outside week key reversal.
So far, 2852 support has held, which is close enough to the pivotal 2850 to make this level the one to watch on the downside (I always pay attention when the “50” level is involved). Below that is 2834 and then a void to aub-2800.
On the upaise. A close above 2777 and a move above 2888 would be needed to ease the risk
Using my platform as a HEATMAP
Liquidating markets across asset classes taking no prisoners.
The dollar holding firm at month end with USDJPY back above 150 and AUD and NZD underperforming. .
Watch month end rebalancing flows to see whether a risk of dollar buying (hard to say how much has already taken place) given weaker stocks. I read bank report earlier in the week indicating it expects EURUSD selling given the underperformance of US stocks relative to European stocks
This is not an exact science so keep an eye on what looks like real money flows, especially ahead of the 4 PM month end London fixing
Elsewhere;
Golfdextending its retreat.
Cryptos down sharply
US bond yields falling further but off earlier lows.
US stocks finding some support but the day is young.
Looking ahead
US PCE (watch the core reading) is the key data release… See a detailed preview
Watch for Trump comments, especially after the carnage triggered by his tariff comments yesterday.
