[GVI Forex 2]

Back to funnymentals + geopolitical risks remain ahead of the weekend

U of M 1 and 5-year inflation expectations boith rise to 3.1 and 3.0% respectively, highest since Nov 2023

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 105.72
–
one would have to be somehow handicapped not to see the DLR romping and rampaging accorss the boad (except maybe vs the yen)

as players are likely gaming a few energy vectors:
– goodly yield spread
— eyeballing and anxiously re-pricing FED gang miscalutations about inflation bumps
— GOLD continues to look uP (i.e. good) as is energy in form of oil

some thanks has to go to wild media headlines about harsh diplomacy between Israel and Iran for at least some portion of players running into dlrs thinking “haven”.

on deck
10:00 – U o M sentiment and U o M 1yr inflation
13:00 – schmid yaks about “econ Outlook”
14:30 – bostic yaks about housing
15:30 – daly chitchats at fireside

earlier this morn collins prognosticateg that she sees no urgency to cut rates (and eyeballs two cuts in 2024)

I am biased BoD DLRx (and some dlr crosses)

[Ab hk]

When there are no stops on the upside, there must be many stops on the downside

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 1h

As you can see from the chart, we had a second leg down today, so one prolonged move.

We need to rebound to at least 1.06850 and even 1.07050 , and still will be in Down mode.

Support comes at 1.06150.

Keep in mind that it is Friday, so trading interest is fading fast.

I am going to prepare some rules and tips on how to follow my trades /ideas over this weekend.

Probably will write the whole article, so everyone can go slowly over it and be ready for things to come J

I have to do lots of accounting for my wife (her company) , and if I don’t …well you know how it goes

I’ll be around later tonight as well…

[Swiss Frank]

A slightly longer view of the eur/jpy charyt will show a break below the trendline that came off the lows from Dec 7, 2023 that came in today around 163.00.

If you like macro explanations of why you can check out this podcast that talks about a tweek in jpy management policy between the BoJ and MoF. JPY talk starts around 28 minutes…

Cognitive Dissidents #190 Weekly Update: 47 Crises in 17 Years
https://www.cognitive.investments/podcast

[SF Monedge]

Ok I hope everyone enjoyed Monedge yesterday lol.  Back to business.  Could use some calls from you Bobby.  I am spread in every major and a few minors,basically long dollar, could use input on levels like Jy just did, lets make sure I don’t lose money today.  My first mistake was watching Christina Aguilera videos while trading, and because I literally was a fighter, a real fighter, like in the ring, I was trading and watching “Fighter” by Christina while trading and got too darn emotional lol.  So sitting on multiple positions, can give levels it needed lol.  Green almost across the board.  Its getting easy.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJJPY 4 HOUR- HOW WE KNOW IT IS RISK OFF?

\

Look at USDJPY and any JPY cross and you will see a run for cover.

On this 4 hour chart there is a key support at 161.90 and a trendlkine, so far untouched

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART – 2400 TESTED

XAUUSD Backing off from its test of 2400

Risk off takinb over elsewhere as geopolitical fears of an Iranian retaliatory strike on headlines that Israel is preparing for an attack, either directly or via proxies.

\USD up, sticks down, bond yields down on flight to safety.
‘

[GVI Forex 2]

GPBUSD WEEKLY – UNCHARTERED TERRITORY AS WELL

I had to go to a weekly chart to find key levels following the 1.2499 break (now resistance).

As long as it stays below 1.25, risk is down. With a void of nearby supports, look for 1.2450 to be pivotal.

Of interest, shirt JPU crosses are being unwound, which is one soiurce of USD demand oither than vs USDJOY, which is a touch lower.

[GVI Forex 2]

FRANKFURT, April 12 (Reuters) – Economists are sticking to their view that inflation in the euro zone will fall to 2% and stay there, a European Central Bank poll showed on Friday, in comforting news as the ECB prepares to cut interest rates.

The ECB’s latest Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) put inflation at 2.4% this year and 2.0% in 2025, 2026 and in the longer term — unchanged from the previous round of the poll three months earlier.

Economists confident euro zone inflation will fall to 2% – ECB poll

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

With markets now re-shuffling central bank rate cut calendars, attention switches abruptly to the first quarter U.S. corporate earnings season on Friday – against a backdrop of an alarming swoon in China trade last month and rising Middle East tension.

Morning Bid: Eyes switch to earnings, China trade miss, tense Middle East

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD – 1.06000 is the target .

Roughly range is 1.07400 – 1.06000

[GVI Forex 2]

Unchartered water trading where support is a guess

EURUSD broke through 1.0650 after a brief pause. If the break holds, 1.0600-20 would be the next pivotal zone.

If not, 1.0650+ would slow the risk.

[Mtl JP]

AI detection software
–
Study out claims 60% of detection result is false positive

now IF for example one is a student submitting paper … your future risks being nega-affected

[GVI Forex 2]

Poweebif 50

EURUSD 1.0669 sacred like a magnet

[GVI Forex 2]

Poweebif 50

EURUSD 1.0669 sacred like a magnet

[Mtl JP]

dilemma ?
–
how about propaganda ( not just psychological, sociological, ethical, and political dimensions )
— but especially “formation of mens’ attitudes” (Jacques Ellul).

and game-able by savvy degenerate traders

[GVI Forex 2]

Isn’t it a dilemma –

Cut rates because of falling inflation => weak euro => increases inflation

[Ab hk]

The feeling of coordinated intervention is close……

[Belgrade Knez]

April 12, 2024 at 10:39 am
GVI Forex
I am not sure if these comments, which came out overnight, were a catalyst for the EURUSD breakdown but it bears repeating

ECB’s Stournaras says now is the time to diverge from the Fed, reiterates call for four rate cuts this year, here is a risk inflation will undershoot 2%

——————————————————

European leaders can’t decide anything without US not even do they want to keep daylight savings time or not…..same with the rates ….. it will be what Fed decide and say ECB what to do

 

[Author]

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