[SF Monedge]

Since its quiet in here – In my algo once UsdJpy crossed and held 153.20 on Monday the entire week was dangerous overshoot for those buying and has been riding the line since Thursday.  This pair is done on the buy side.

[SF Monedge]

UsdJpy is going to close the week around 154.50 unless the market gets a clue that this isn’t the time to ride the upside heading into next week.  Inevitably I am quite confident the pair will see 153.50 and ultimately 153.

[SF Monedge]

UsdChf is the 50% spot in my algo is 9080 and it is Friday so unless the market decides it should accelerate the selling again a bit later to not make the mistake of being behind the curve Monday the pair is likely to finish the week around there (likely closer to 9100).  My hope is the less boring version.

[GVI Forex 2]

It is a good feeling when a Currency That Feels “Bid in an Offered Market has a reality check.

[SF Monedge]

For novices in this, here is what it is like to actively get into the volatility I was involved in when UsdChf and UsdJpy so aggressively sold off while globally the same volatility occurred on a massive scale across markets.  I sold at the top in both pairs in Asia before it hit.  I did very handsomely and got out.  I thought it was a consortium of entities intervening and found out quickly after it was the military strike.  I hit a retracement and did ok.  I hit again but it was near the lows and paid for it on a very significant pull back that is very not normal in scope or speed and coughed up a portion of the gains unnecessarily before going “flat.”  Balanced intent matters in such conditions.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Timely post below

EURGBP .8594
GBOUSD 1.2410

Path of least resistance is selling GBP, not buying EURUSD

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 1 HOUR CHART — KEY RESISTANCE

Shifting expectations of a sooner UK rate may be behind a softer GBP.

Key level is at .8586 (not seen on this chart)

Note offsets out of this cross are giving EURUSD some support while capping GBPUSD upside.

[michael Calif]

Bobby, yes, the top has formed, per Option Profile alerts over the past week

[Belgrade Bobby]

Gold Daily

Are we watching the Top being formed ?

[GVI Forex 2]

I’LL TAKE THE OTHER SIDE OF THAT ARGUMENT GIVEN DIFFERING ECB AND FRD RATE OUTLOOKS. YOU CAN SEE WHY I SAY THAT BY READING THIS ARTICLE IN OUR BLOG.

What Does it Mean When a Currency Feels “Bid in an Offered Market?”

 

[SF Monedge]

JP – April 19, 2024 at 8:45 am – Agree the climate is in the middle on the MEast escalation (for the moment) but they are crazy over there and one of my question is when the proxies and plants and perhaps even the Suez Canal being targeted sits on the radar.   On Usd, I think if it starts holding intraday  below 105.75 Dxy we see 105ish inevitably.

[michael Calif]

…  Option Profile continues to affirm lower USD futures and higher Euro futures, over the near term

[GVI Forex 2]

With stops wiped out on the dollar and risk off the side, there is little incentive to push for these lows (or highs such as in gold and oil). Leaves a Friday whipsawed market at the mercy of thin liquidity or book squaring or any stops on the other side.

As for EURUSD, edged through 1.0665 but still within 1.06-1.07.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – TRAPPED FOR NOW?

When the dust settles on this latest geopolitical scare, the focus will likely shift back to interest rates where ECB OFFICIALS ARE signaling a cut in Hune and Fed officials ARE PUTTING RATE CUTS ON HOLD.

EURUSD, meanwhile, seems trapped between 1.06-1.07 (1.0650 = midpoint) but as long as it trades below 1,.0665, there is a limit on the upside.

With that said, I am not sure how much gas this market had in the tank after the whipsaws seen so far today,

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Purely Intraday

Close of this hour Bar above 1.06500 would call for more Up

[Belgrade Bobby]

I was accused by some of being too quick to declare The Third World War.

I still have the same feeling / opinion on the situation at hands…

Read it again – https://global-test.financialmarkets.media/trading-in-war-conditions-middle-east-boiling/

Haven’t called for the WW3 – yet….

[Belgrade Bobby]

Knez…don’t you laugh…it is Friday 😀 I need some relaxation

[Belgrade Knez]

April 19, 2024 at 11:08 am
Belgrade Bobby

LOL 😂

[SF Monedge]

On gold I have a very hard time believing futures will get under 2385/90 and hold today.  That is an easy buy.  Dxy should easily hold 106 one would think.  See Sterling holding the upside around 2450.

[Belgrade Bobby]

What Data ??? Look at the Economic Calendar first…you schmuck

[Author]

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