This is the third week that we are starting the day with one outlook, just to close it with an opposite one.
Seems as the Bulls and the Bears are just waiting for some data to try to use it to prove their point.
Personally, I couldn’t care less about data and/or interest rates, news and rumours .
It is enough to determine what might happen next few hours , based on 4h chart, and then switch to 30 min and wait for appropriate signal.
Right now, I have to tell you that the picture is changing – once again – The pattern calls for a push Up.
Bare in mind that unless 1.07350 and subsequently 1.07550 are taken out, we can have any pattern we like, but we ain’t gonna go higher.
This is not rectangle ( yet ), this is not the range trading ( waves are too short ) – this is some kind of Sideways to Up …a bit….so take it as it comes and do not try to predict bigger picture.
Similar to the EURUSD 1.07 pattern cited earlier GBPUSD has extended its pattern trading on either side of 1.25 to 6 days in a row today.
Over this period there have been”
3 closes above 1.25
2 closes below 1.25
As I noted in EURUSD, the longer this pattern goes on the greater the chance of a directional move once it is broken.
Note today GBPUSD traded lower, helped by GBPJPY selling but the GBPUSD sell part was more easily absorbed than the USDJPY selling out of the cross (same for EURUSD selling more easily absorbed).
Jay – Option Profile is our proprietary instrument at gtwo3.com. It tracks “house” money versus player money in thr futures casino … (“house” money almost always wins it’s bets)
My note on worker productivity is for the overall, not this report which moderated. Gbp should inevitably begin pricing in Fed rate cut in the near future and target 2800 in my view. Price activity is the sell side this morning but the complementing issues are bid, which is why I am selling euro but trying to position long in Gbp.
I’m long Gbp 2480 which is very aggressive, likely moves further toward 2440 but locked so lets see. If not, small tiny gain and reload deeper, or hold if it sticks.
I pay attention to what Bobby says on the EURUSD. As he posted earlier, so far a good guide
Technically speaking, this does not look good for the EUR , and as we can see lower and lower Daily Highs in previous days, picture is slowly starting to get some sense…
DLRx 105.63
–
After jerome’s yak players are left with the suggestion that rates have likely peaked and that FEDs next rates move is likely down although not soon fault of “no conviction” level data.
Bottom line
– Dlr is now vulnerable. Move sub 105.4 would see me jump in join the slide for potential 104.50/40
imo patience , usually, brings rewards
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