[SF Monedge]

Tick ratios in S/P 500 stocks have lost 1/3 of their 20 day range indicating consolidation and an upcoming strong move either up or down from current/recent levels.

Looking further out and with a macro perspective, considering that there is a tremendous gap between US stocks and Fed Fund futures, which has to converge at some point, this begs the question – what will happen to EurUsd as that transpires?  The answer would be a selloff in stocks and in bonds and the yields rise over time, especially looking out toward the 4th quarter of the year.

I like Bobby’s notation of Nvidia looking like a sell and I am on board with that.  That could very well impact EurUsd longs if it does transpire.

[michael Calif]

if it helps, Option Profile remains SELLER controlled from the 18709 TOP in NQ futures  …

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 DAILY CHART – TESTING 18K

NAS00 reacting to the retreat in bond yields and fresh rate cut expectations.

As this chart shows, it is coming in sight of the major resistance zone where 18000 needs to become support to put it on the radar.

Note CFD price feeds differ between brokers, even with the same symbols so I show the chart patterns rather than specific levels.

[Mtl JP]

yeaaaahh …. but gunning for 3 or 5 pips over 20 minutes is a hard way to try support one’s mistress(es), especially if she is the high maintenance type that like to fly 1rst class

[Mtl JP]

maybe kashkari’s piece – https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2024/policy-has-tightened-a-lot-how-tight-is-it-an-update – caused a little scattering of the cats

[SF Monedge]

Put to Call ratio in S/P 500 is right in the middle, up overall, most other gauges are the same, including the volume ratio I noted earlier that had a sudden drop off which was somebody big either getting out or taking some money off of the table.  Bottom line with these and other gauges are ending up with EurUsd up overall but not convincingly to this point intra-day.  Stocks and Eur often move well together.

[SF Monedge]

If you are in and out rapidly like I am often, EurUsd is stalling here, wait around 20 minutes and hit it long again for a few pips.

[Mtl JP]

monedge I saw a bit of a dlr acceleration in the dlrchf pair
might it be connected to your reading of stocks volume ?

[michael Calif]

EURUSD prices should zig-zag higher til around June5, per Option Profile, at which time we’ll reevaluate

[SF Monedge]

Very sharp drop in stocks volume ratio just now, heads up.

[Mtl JP]

earlier Neel Kashkari says
– recent inflation data raise questions about whether monetary policy is restrictive enough to fully return price growth to the central bank’s 2% target.
–
haven’t read anything from his fireside chat yet

[GVI Forex 2]

Non-correlation day: Lower US bond yields, stocks up, USD mostly higher.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – CONSOLIDATING

Similar to other pairs AUDUSD is trading below highs set after Friday’; US jobs report.

What I like about this type of chart is that the key levels are clear, which gives a framework to trade with shorter time frames.

In this regard, ,6565 needs to hold to keep the .6648  high on the radar while the upside is limited unless the high is taken out,

[Mtl JP]

insanity reigns
US 10-YR 4.441%
—-
DLRx 104.98 . sub 105.40 puppy is now tilting

kashkari chats by some fire at 11:30

and janet peddles off 58 billion in 3yr paper
13:00

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4H

One Picture – Thousand words

Support at 1.07750 & 1.07650

Resistance at 1.07950 and 1.08200

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 30 MINUTE CHART – 155 TOUGH

As I wrote yesterday 152-155 is sort of a no man’s land and the run at the top end has so far run into a stone wall as can be seen on this chart.

On the downside, supports are between 153.80-00

Note, lower US bond yields have helped cap the upside so far.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY 1 HOUR CHART

i assume I am not alone in only trading the JPY very selectively and shying away from being on the short JPY side other than for a scalp.

However, I look at this cross (along with other EUR crosses)for clues trading EURUSD (currently supported by firmer EUR cross offsets).

As for EURJPY, the key level is at 167.38/ Momentum is currently tilted up in this cross but expect caution at any approach to this level.

[Mtl JP]

…”an addict having a tough time without his/her latest fix” …

in tough time getting a fix addict might lower caution, whatever caution thay may have to begin with.

is that an extra exploitable opportunity for the fix peddler ?

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

World markets have returned to levels of almost month ago as fears of an overheated U.S. economy abate even as corporate profit growth remains brisk.

The April miss on new payrolls and the sight of annual wage growth ebbing below 4% have been enough to switch the narrative back to a Federal Reserve which is on hold for now, rather than one that may even consider further interest rate hikes.

Morning Bid: Cooler US takes edginess off markets, UBS jumps

[GVI Forex 2]

With the US economic calendar basically empty of key events this week it is like an addict having a tough time without his/her latest fix.

What we are left with is some revived Fed risk cut expectations as seen by slipping bond yields but little to go after on the dollar downside unless last Friday’s post-US job USD lows are threatened.

Otherwise, a mixed bag with JPY and AUD the underperformers.

EURUSD is holding up while above 1.0752, close to unchanged as it has been the benficaiory of varioius cross flows (note firmer EURGBP).

[Author]

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