A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
After an intense month focused on election risk around the world, markets quickly switched back to the more prosaic matter of the cost of money – and whether disinflation is resuming to the extent it allows borrowing costs to finally fall.
Thursday’s U.S. consumer price update for June is the key moment of the week for many investors – with the headline rate expected to have fallen two tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% but with ‘core’ rates still stuck at 3.4%.
Morning Bid: Eyes switch to inflation vs elections, Powell up
The foreign exchange (forex) market is where banks and individuals buy, sell, or exchange currencies. It’s the largest financial market in the world, according to the latest reliable data from 2022, when global daily trading was $7.5 trillion.
Made up of banks, commercial companies, central banks, investment management firms, hedge funds, retail forex brokers, and investors, the forex trade is in the mid-2020s more than seven times the daily currency value traded at the beginning of the millennium.
The forex market allows participants, including banks, funds, and individuals to buy, sell or exchange currencies for both hedging and speculative purposes.
The forex market operates 24 hours, five days a week, and handles trillions of dollars in daily trading.
The forex market is an over-the-counter (OTC) market.
Many forex accounts can be opened with as little as $100.
The forex market is not dominated by a single market exchange but involves a global network of computers and brokers from worldwide. Forex brokers act as market makers as well and may post bids and ask prices for a currency pair that differs from the most competitive bid in the market.
EURUSD 4 HOUR – WAITING FOR POWELL
Given expectations of a dovish tilt for Fed Chair Powell’s testimony today, the dollar upside should be limited ahead of it.
This suggests markets should be positioned for a more dovish testimony so it will be the reaction to his comments that will be more important than what he says barring some clear signal of a rate cut (markets are pricing in an 80% chance of a Sept cut).
Otherwise, expect support as long as 1.08+ trades but needing to take out 1.0845-50 to suggest a run at key targets in the 1.09-1.10 area.
AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – AIMING FOR .68?
Key target is close to .69 with .6800 the next obstacle. To make a run at .68, .6750 would need to become support.
Minor range .6710-.6761
Split the range and .6735 is the midpoint… needs to hold to keep a bid.
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TSLA – Tesla
Tesla on Track for Longest Winning Streak Since June 2023
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is currently at $252.54, up $1.02 or 0.41%Would be highest close since Dec. 28, 2023, when it closed at $253.18
Currently up 10 of the past 11 days
Currently up nine consecutive days; up 38.32% over this period
Longest winning streak since June 13, 2023, when it rose for 13 straight trading days
Best nine day stretch since the nine days ending Feb. 2, 2023, when it rose 41.11%
Up 27.62% month-to-date
Up 1.63% year-to-date
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