USDJPY Daily
This is what I wrote on 12.12.2024. :
Pattern – Bullish
If we get over 152.850 -we might see a run over 154.000 tomorrow
Now do not get me wrong – I don’t want to show off or gloat !
I want to prove the point and share some insights as how I trade…
Trading in a Holiday Season
Lots have been said on this issue, and all of it was more or less right.
Trying to guess the next move on any given pair can be at least difficult if not impossible.
There are many reasons behind it, and I am going to highlight the most important ones :
End of Year positions squaring
Lack of interest to establish new positions
Low liquidity
Traders going places
But I want to give you another angle of trading at the very end of the year…
The US Dollar Index is a Joke
I don’t know why it is called the USD index but the name is a joke. It is only composed of 6 currencies (see below) and the EUR makes up 57.6% If you add in the CHF, which generally moves in the same direction as the EUR vs the USD, then this bloc makes up over 60% of the index. If you include the Swedish krona in this bloc, the percentage rises to 65.4.
Forex – Order of The Pack
What is the order of the Wolfpack?
The alpha pair commands the whole group, while the beta pair directs the mid-level wolves, and the adults take charge of the remaining pack members in the middle and lower ranks.
While searching the internet in a quest of finding the Best Keywords for Google, I have stumbled upon numerous articles explaining Forex, loads of conspiracy theories about it, even more kind of “ motivational Guru / Experts type “ theories…most of it -crap…
I have written who knows how many articles explaining Forex and how it works, but never really touched the real base of it – what is behind the trading in foreign currency exchange and who runs it.
So here we go….
Trading in current conditions
We have all said a lot about trading in geopolitical turmoil’s, but I would like to mention something that is directly causing a havoc within all those trading on Small time frames ( just like me 😀
No matter how good your system/strategy is, right now we have to rethink our entry and stop loss levels – every now and then we can see some “unnatural” spikes happening where they shouldn’t be.
In reality, your trade would be just fine if there wasn’t that silly spike….hitting your stop loss just for fun.
So what to do?? Well, idea of widening my stop is not something that I favour – so for me better solution is to move to a bit bigger time frame ( from let’s say 4min chart to 10 min chart, or even bigger) as those spikes would be more natural and easier to avoid.
Just my 10 cents worth….
Offensive Selling: How to Set Targets and Profit Using Fib Extensions
How to Use Fibonacci Extensions
The Fibonacci extension is a mathematical-based technical analysis tool used to project price targets. The Fibonacci method is for many a preferred tool to use for offensive selling for two reasons:
1. Flexibility: Fibs eliminate the need for all or none decisions by providing multiple target levels, allowing investors to pyramid out of the position.
2. Reactive: Whether it is due to a “self-fulfilling prophecy” or not, the history shows that price tends to react and “respect” key Fib levels.
Traders may each have unique ways of using fibs, but I use them as follows:
– I draw extensions from the top of the base to the bottom. For targets, I use the 1.618% as my first trim area, 2.618% for my second target zone, and the 4.236% extreme extension for my remaining position (normally, I am out of most of my position by this time and only have runners left).
Understand that you can use Fibs for any time frame but I have found that they are the most powerful for long-term price targets.
Importance of Specializing in one/few instruments vs Running after everything that moves
Most of you have seen on the net those video ads that show you a mobile phone in hands of a guy, sitting behind the wheel of Lamborghini , scrolling it up and down and showing numerous instruments being traded at the same time – yeah right…
I don’t want to insult anyone, but c’mon guys – don’t you know it better.
I have explained some basics on the risk management ( stop loss, trade size, R/R ) and if you paid just a bit of attention to it, you would know what kind of calamity comes your way if you open more than one position at the same time.
So I am not going to waste my ( and your ) time in going deeper into this.
What I am going to try to explain here is the Importance of Specializing in few Instruments.
To be able to successfully trade every single day, and to come up with positive results at the end of the road, you must know your enemy ( and yes, all these instruments are your enemies ).
Why is it so important when we use the same techniques, same charts, same strategies on all ?
Well, because every instrument has it’s own set of rules and the behaviour differs .
First of all, those differences are visible and levelled in the Crosses – so unless you want to follow every single one of them ( Crosses), 24/5 , you better concentrate on the main pair.
You can spot the behaviour of different pairs if you follow them on smaller time frames.
At first you might not see/understand what is so unique with any given pair, but after some serious time it will start coming back to you – first as a Hunch/Gut feeling ( your sub consciousness will recognize it) , and then you will slowly start to see it and use it.
Trading forex is not the same as trading Stocks or Metals for the example, and all those very old rules used in last hundred years and more are useless when it comes to currencies.
That old adage – Don’t put your eggs in the same basket might have some sense today if you are creating your 401K , but in Intraday trading it is just ridiculous.
If you open few positions at the same time, with different instruments you are on the road to lose on all of them.
Probability is not going in your favour – on contrary ( Murphy’s Law ) , and you are going to start looking like a crazed chicken running around.
You need to come to the point where you live, breathe, dream of and follow every step of the instrument you trade.
I am sorry if this is not what you expected from trading to be , and that making it big is a very difficult, long and tiresome process, but I am telling you what you have to do if you want to be successful in trading.
Intraday Trading Techniques – Part 2
As explained in previous lesson, determining the daily / 4h chart direction will give you a more clear view on intraday actions.
Let me repeat once again :
It has been said many times: “The trend is your friend.”b The question is, how does one find the trend? It often comes down to using various indicators to help determine which way a market has been moving, and thus where it might go next. One of the most popular to use to help determine this information is the moving average.
When the price of the market stays below the moving average, then the pair is said to be in a downtrend.
When it is above the moving average, it is said to be in an uptrend. Both are movements that can potentially be capitalized on, but the trader needs to be aware of how the different trends should impact their trades.
The best recommendation from most experienced traders is that a trade should be placed in line with the prevailing trend.
There is no heroism in placing a trade that goes hard against the trend. This is actually a recipe for disaster in most scenarios, and it is a good way to lose money.
Don’t Get Faked Out
Try not to get too caught up in whether the price is just above or just below the moving average. Sometimes, using the moving averages alone is too simplistic.
There is one way to have a high probability of any given trade :
Always wait for the confirmation – in the case of Moving Averages it is most of the time two consecutive closings of bars ( above or below the MA’s)
Most of the traders will tell you to use additional Indicators in confirming the move, but I am always for a Simple solutions :
If you start combining too many different indicators, you are going to end up frustrated and missing trades
You will start to hang on your opinion , trying to find an indicator that supports it – The Disaster
You better arrange your Stop Loss in line with Profit Target and Risk/Reward Ratio and never commit too much of your current margin to just one trade.
That way, you have an upper hand and as long as your Probability in any given trade is above 50% , you can’t miss it.
Intraday Trading Techniques – Part 1
Anyone that came even close to some form of speculating in the markets, be it a forex, cfd’s, metals, crypto or any other existing instrument , started dreaming of making it a full time job ( with lots of money as a reward, of course J
Once first steps are taken, very quickly it becomes clear that just surviving in it is close to impossible, not to mention the original dream : full time job, lots of money, lots of free time, independence….
Still, the hope stays…there are some people out there that did it.
But is it really possible ??
Every single one of you was ( and is ) watching charts, seeing great moves ( OMG, if I just bought/sold it) , calculating possible profits and thinking of all the nice things that you could have done with that easily made money…
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