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EUR/USD is at 1.03754 and the market looks good for a sell. Mind you, in the past 2 hours market has been on a steady ascention. I have been expecting the decline until a perfect candle emerged. The long sell candle on the 15′ chart and the market took a tumble as expected. I will sell from its present position at 1.03754 and exit at 1.03623 for a small profit and then rest a while.
Mind you, taking few pips at a time ensures that you retain your capital and with good money Management skills you keep growing your Account. Just Trade 2-5% of your capital at most. Being consistent is the key.
I will make further analysis soon.THANKS,
TOPNINE.USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART – Waiting for Trump
The risk in USDCAD is a gap opening Sunday night depending on what Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Feb 1 turns out to be..
If I was a Canadian official, I would be relieved that Trump’s focus is on the border rather than addressing the trade gap. There is uncertainty, whether Trump will levy a tariff on Canadian oil exports. However, logic says given his push for lower oil prices such a levy would be counterproductive.
The knee jerk reaction leaves 1.4595 as the top of the range.
Key area on the downside is not until 1.4261-1.4300. To keep the focus on the bias wetting 1.45 level, 1.4390-00 need to hold aw zuppot.
As of charts, the range is 1.44-1.46 where 1.45 will dictate the tone. Just in case, the broad range is 1.4261/1.4300. – 1.4595.
EURGBP 4 HOIUR CHARTT – MONTH END
I have observed EURGBP being one of the more active flows at month end. So, keep an eye on this cross, not only by itself but its influence of EURUSD and GBPUSD, especially ahead of the 4PM London fix.
Charts show the retreat from a failure to reach .85 only sees minor support within .83-.84 so look for .8350 to be pivotal.
Note, looking ahead, the BOE is expected to cut rates by 25bps next week.
XAUUSD DAILY CHART – Mission accomplished?
The break of 2790 opened a clear path to test 2800. So, is it mission accomplished or is there more on the upside?
So far, 2800 has been met with profit taking and now needs to hold 2885-90 as support to keep 2800 (and potentially above) on the radar..
Only back below 2745 would suggest the top is in for now. `
Using my platform as a HEATMAP
It’s month end and with stocks up this month, there should be some rebalancing of fx hedges. While I am not privy to such flows, given the surge in the DAX this month, rebalancing would see EUR selling and could account for some of the early EURUSD weakness.
Whatever the case, just be aware of month end erratic price action, especially heading into the 4PM London fix.
With US stocks up this month as well there could be some rebalancing of fx hedges here as well but so far any such flows have been adsorbed.
As I have noted many times, identifying the side to trade is more than half the battle in putting on successful trades. In this regard, one way to do this is by drilling down on your charts as I will explain in the following:
Trading Tip: Why You Should Drill Down on Your Charts
US stocks are higher this month… read this very popular and timely article in our blog
Many international equity managers like to minimize the forex exposure of their equity portfolio and put on forex hedges to reduce that risk. Thus, at the end of each month they adjust the size of their hedges to bring them back into line with the current size of their portfolio.
What does this mean for the forex trader?
Have you ever heard of the term “month-end rebalancing?”
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