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[GVI Forex 2]

I can’t resist posting this Amazing Trader 5 minute chart… what should stand out os the bounce off support and then a run at the high for a near double top- no coincidence if you are using AT)

[Mtl JP]

re (10 yr last 4.457%) …
I am sensing that in the backdrop of trumps tariffs AND increasingly load voices screaming “inflationary” , the risk is that manufacturers are increasingly ably to pass along their increased costs and that without fear as , again me sensing, that “inflationary expectaions” are getting closer to becoming acceptable and run the risk of becoming anchored. with a non-chalant attitude.

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 106.50

puppy looks lets say softish. close around here or lower would portend lower still next week

looks like players are starting to be annoyed by donald’s tariff theatricks.
and , having watched early morning plebian news w / journos sticking a microphone in front of folks on the street about prices of eggs and most folks just shrugging “so-what” shoulders about inflation .. a danger for donald I suggest

[GVI Forex 2]

It’s hard for the dollar to maintain any blips while bond yields reamin under pressure (10 yr last 4.457%)

[GVI Forex 2]

DOLLAR DOWN AFTER RETAIL SALES MISS

I wonder whether the LA fires and winter storms distorted the numbers but the reaction tio the news is all that mattersz.

10 year yield falls below 4.50%

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – GER 30

Hanging up there…

For more to come – has to hold above 22.400

Any positive news towards the end of war in Ukraine and some kind of normalisation can fuel it further.

[Alex Lugano]

Europe to bat away U.S. tariffs, weaker currency to help
Another day, another story on tariffs.

This time, U.S. President Trump has tasked his economics team with devising plans for reciprocal tariffs on every country that taxes U.S. imports, starting from April.

While that may look bad for Europe on the surface, Barclays is sanguine about the possible impact, especially as the delayed implementation opens the door for negotiation.

“The actual hit to growth is likely manageable and largely offset by weaker EURUSD,” Barclays says.

The staples, autos and chemicals sectors exhibit the widest tariff gaps, Barclays notes, so they would be most exposed to reciprocal tariffs, but these sectors have underperformed since the U.S. election.

“Some of the earnings downside is arguably priced in already,” Barclays notes.

[Alex Lugano]

Germany inflation rate YoY

DEIRYY Federal Statistical Office

 

Key data points
Actual: 2.3 % Forecast: 2.3 % Prior: 2.6 %

Last release Jan 31, 2025

Observation period Jan 2025

Next release Feb 28, 2025

Highest 11.70 % on Oct 31, 1951

Lowest −7.62 % on Jun 30, 1950

[Alex Lugano]

US inflation rate YoY

USIRYY Bureau of Labour Statistics

Key data points
Last release Feb 12, 2025

Actual: 3 % Forecast: 2.9 % Prior: 2.9 %

Observation period Jan 2025

Next release Mar 12, 2025

Forecast 2.90 %

Highest 23.70 % on Jun 30, 1920

Lowest −15.80 % on Jun 30, 1921

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Supports : 1.04550, 1.04150 & 1.03550

Resistances : 1.04950, 1.05200 & 1.05350

As long as it holds above 1.04600 next hour or so, it will try for higher.

Possible back drops to 1.04150 won’t change that picture, but just slow it down a bit.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

As world stocks got a fresh lift, the U.S. dollar has retreated to its lowest of the year so far on a mix of reversing U.S. Treasury yields and another delay in tariff implementation.

Multiple cross-currents have hit macro markets this week – a whipsaw effect from two big U.S. inflation reports, Washington’s push for Ukraine peace talks alongside threats of sweeping tariffs and another heavy schedule of corporate earnings and Treasury debt sales.

But as Friday trading gets underway, the net impact on the dollar index has been to sink it to its lowest in almost two months – driven in part by a benign take on January’s U.S. producer price report and a Ukraine-related rally in the euro.

Morning Bid: Unloved dollar hit by tariff delays, yield recoil

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQYAWK US OPEN’

Indices mixed amid varied Russia/Ukraine commentary, USD lower ahead of Retail Sales

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.

5 Things You Need to Know

European bourses & US futures began the session mixed but have deteriorated on geopols; Luxury lifted by Hermes post-earnings.

USD remains pressured post-Trump tariff announcement, Antipodeans lead.

Bonds retain a bearish biasbut are off lows as geopolitics drives recent price action

Gas continues to deflate, crude rangebound & metals advance.

Russia has said its officials are not attending the Munich conference, US VP Vance & Ukraine’s Zelensky set to meet at 11:00EST; recent remarks from Zelensky have tempered recent optimism

Source: Newsquawk.com

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – 1.05 OR BUST

A tepid run at 1.05 so far (high 1.0487)… key chart level is 1.0534_

Needs to hold 1.0440-50 as support to keep the focua on 1.05 and away from 1.04.

Note, 1.05 is likely an options barrier so much may depend on how hard it is defended.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

GER30 4 HOUR CHART –  Just a pause?

Tentative sign of a pause (22629) but keeps a boid as long as it trades above 22000.

Keep an eye on EURUSD to see if a stronger currency negatively impacts the currency.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART   Bid but a Double top

2942 record high retested (double top)

For a new leg targeting the much talked about 3000 level, 2942 not only has to be broken but then become support.

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP

TGIF

Dollar is weaker across the board

Question for today is how hard 1.05 likely options barrier) will defended.

Key event: US Retail Sakes

Reminder: US markets are closed Monday for President’s Day

.

 

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 106.80/30 zone – on the daily

evokes conciderations of players’ reasessing of hedge holdings of the dollar

and a prospect of a woosh of the dollar (to say euro 1.08)

[Adam Global]

Eur is closing in on 1.05 quarter point

It may resist since it would be double top

[Adam Global]

GBP has broken the 1.25000 quarter point

1.2600 or 1.2700 is expected to hit thats my 61.8 fib level

Watch out 4 retail sales 2day 15h30

[Adam Global]

Bye buy gold 📈 2955.00 is expected to hit today or by Monday

3000.00 is the expected globally by everyone

[Author]

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