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[GVI Forex 2]

It looks like there may be another tariff news opening week gap.

Trump said his next focus is on car imports.

I found this in home web.

As of February 2025, the European Union (EU) imposes a 10% tariff on imported vehicles from the United States, while the U.S. applies a 2.5% tariff on European car imports. This disparity has been a point of contention in transatlantic trade relations. In response, the EU has proposed reducing its tariff on U.S. car imports to 2.5%, aligning with the U.S. rate, in an effort to ease trade tensions. 

Additionally, President Donald Trump has announced plans to impose new tariffs on countries with value-added tax (VAT) systems, arguing that these taxes act as trade barriers disadvantaging U.S. exports. This policy could significantly impact the EU, where VAT rates average around 22%. 

These developments indicate ongoing negotiations and potential changes in tariff structures affecting U.S.-EU automotive trade.

[Rafe]

JP// Thought better to clarify…

I’m planning longer business hours/days for myself now… So I guess you’d understand now re: IF I don’t object…

Should suffice for now or at least it should… It drives me nuts because I can be better and accomplish much better and higher levels with so much ease that it’s unbelievable!

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights 17-21st February 2025

Highlights include RBA, RBNZ, FOMC Minutes, PMIs, Canada, UK and Japan inflation

 

[Rafe]

The way Zelensky behaves is as if all of the countries in the world are obligated to make him into a heir to the Russian throne or that he is entitled heir to the Russian Throne… and that ain’t right…

[Rafe]

Putin has something in him called Benevolence,.. not a wicked man or cruel man or madman as made out to be. Putin is the one who made a great success of Post USSR Russia… Let us not forget that.

In the early days they did not have money to pay the military but he grew the country out of those conditions and improved the quality of life in his country and many other nearby countries to a great extent and many of the best things are in store for Russia. If he had not sold a drop of oil to Europe from those days until today then where would Europe be now?

Other people need to not forget the good things he has done for their countries and their economies…

[Rafe]

February 14, 2025 at 8:44 pm #19592

Zelensky and Putin must not meet or at least better put Zelensky must not be allowed near Putin… This is a very serious thing… I don’t recommend a peace deal instead I recommend Zelensky concede a full defeat and handover to Russia. Like that there will be peace.

I said this before many years ago. You see Ukraine was working on weapons not to defend itself from Russia but to carry out offensives against Russia in spite of Russia’s size… they were getting ready to carry out unprovoked military activities against neighboring areas and to capture and to rule them… Russia found out and then that’s why Putin put a stop to it, they had found nuclear blueprints in the early days and destroyed them… And to hide their culpability Ukraine blew up their own bridge and lied that Russia did it and that was found out and posted by CNN eventually that Ukraine was behind that bridge explosion. If at all they do meet then Zelensky has got some kinda spy trick to kill Putin on the spot… It’s too technical I don’t know how to explain it. I used to respect Ukraine equally and to the maximum as Russia but when the invasion happened then I started checking and realized Ukraine’s style is like a malicious woman’s method for her to have her way to control the man… She tore her own clothes in front of the man and called the authorities on him and when the police reached the scene she lied to them that he tried to torture her for what she owns.

[GVI Forex 2]

I posted this after the retail saLes report yet bond yields went even lower before backing up a touch into the close.

It was another example of how a market can remain illogical longer than one can remain solvent.

I am not sure if it is a case of the algos running the trading asylum as the bond market is usually a truer barometer but maybe it has joined the club

As I posted after tghe retail sakes report

DOLLAR DOWN AFTER RETAIL SALES MISS

I wonder whether the LA fires and winter storms distorted the numbers but the reaction tO the news is all that mattersz.

10 year yield falls below 4.50%

To illudtrate my point

WASHINGTON, Feb 14 (Reuters) – U.S. retail sales dropped by the most in nearly two years in January, likely weighed down by frigid temperatures, wildfires and motor vehicle shortages, suggesting a sharp slowdown in economic growth early in the first quarter

But the larger-than-expected and across the board decline in retail sales reported by the Commerce Department on Friday probably does not reflect a material shift in consumer spending as it also followed four straight months of hefty increases.

A sharp upward revision to December’s sales took some of the sting from the report. Economists also noted that it was difficult to strip out large seasonal swings from the data at the turn of the year, which was also evident in the January consumer inflation report.

US retail saleUS retails post biggest drop in nearly two years amid winter freeze

[Mtl JP]

sounds like a subtle message to donald:
–
Lower inflation wouldn’t assure rate cuts, Fed’s Logan says – Bloomberg

[GVI Forex 2]

 

NAS100 DAILY CHART – Record high looms

Too close to the record high around 22130 not to see it at least tested or broken… to signal a fresh leg up into unchartered territory, 22140 would not only need to be broken but then become support.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART   Logic prevails

There’s an old saying in trading, Markets can remain illogical longer than you can stay solvent.

I thought of this saying as the dollar sold off on easing tariff concerns and hopes for an end to the Ukraine war yet GOLD continued to press higher.’

Well, today logic prevailed after 2942 held for a double top.

Now XAUUSD needs to stay above 2863 as a break would negate the last leg to 2952 and expose a risk if a retracement.

[Rafe]

Anyone got the bid on XAUUSD? I have not seen the the charts today.

[Rafe]

What right does Trump have to decide for how much Walmart sells eggs?

He has all his presidential rights and authority however to implement a higher sales tax on imported eggs which would make them cost the same as locally produced ones.

The Prime Ministers of other countries will come to Trump and tell him to drop sales taxes for eggs sold by retailers? They can’t decide prices in their own countries then how will they do that in the United States? Who gives them the right and authority to do that here?

[Rafe]

Then Trump can get busy negotiating deals on a sustainable future for the country mainly focused on being forward looking. You see how the Sheikh’s in the United Arab Emirates think 50-100 years ahead of time?… That’s how I look at things for the people too, even before I even knew a placed called Emirates existed…

[Rafe]

Tariffs OR Higher Sales Taxes.

There should be no tariffs on imported goods because that will have the war effect…

The USA can however put in higher sales taxes on aaallll imported goods so they cost the same to buy as locally manufactured/produced goods.

Can’t deny consumers their right to buy whatever they want from which ever country it comes from…

What wins in this game is quality…

[Belgrade Bobby]

ETHUSD – Ethereum

Similar situation as with Bitcoin – forming a potential Bullish pattern.

However, it is clear that before 3050.00 taken out, nothing significant can be expected.

Supports : 2660.00, 2520.00 & 2440.00

Resistances: 2795.00, 2855.00 & 2920.00

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin Daily

Supports : 96.250, 96.830

Resistances : 98.000, 100.200

Bullish formation is slowly forming, but it is necessary to show the strength and move above 98.500 to confirm.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 15 min

Supports : 1.04850, 1.04700 & 1.04500

Resistances : 1.05050, 1.05150 & 1.05300

If support at 1.04850 holds, we’ll be seeing next attempt Up.

If lost, more deeper correction towards 1.04500

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – Hit a wal (so far)

Hit a wall at the record 6118 high… stays at risk while above 6092

However, anything other than a new record high and beyond would be a disappointment.

[Mtl JP]

happy valentine’s vance

wsj – Vance Wields Threat of Sanctions, Military Action to Push Putin Into Ukraine Deal

In interview with The Wall Street Journal, vice president says Ukraine must have ‘sovereign independence’
By Bojan Pancevski and Alexander Ward,
Updated Feb. 14, 2025 8:00 am ET

( https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/vance-wields-threat-of-sanctions-military-action-to-push-putin-into-ukraine-deal-da9c18ac )

[Topnine]

THE GOLD (XU/USD) has retraced after days of a bullish run. The retracement started at price 2939 this early morning, and has steadily declined ever since then. it is now at price 2895…a long bullish retracement. There was a core retail sales m/m news release at 2:30pm this afternoon.

Market will soon start returning to it’s usual buy bias so Traders should beware not to be stuuck in the sell bias. A word is enough for the wise.

Don’t risk more than 2-5% of your capital on any Trade.
Thanks,
TOPNINE.

[Author]

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