A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Europe’s defence stocks (.SXPARO), opens new tab, up almost 20% for the year so far, surged another 1% on Tuesday as U.S. officials met Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia for talks about ending the war in Ukraine and Germany prepared to go to the polls this weekend.
U.S. markets were closed on Monday for the President’s Day holiday and are set to return in relatively buoyant mood, with stock futures firmer near record highs even with Treasury yields and the dollar ticking back higher again.
GBP initially outperforming via firmer crosses…helped by the UK jobs report (dip in jobless rate, hotter wages)… but giving back early gains,,, e.g. EURGBP bounced after holding .8290 support (cited yesterday)
USDJPY focus is back on pivotal 152, brief test above failed to hold … US 10 year back above 4.50% marginally so far
EURUSD moves farther below 1.05. needs to hold 1.0447 or focus shifts to 1.0370-00
AUDUSD up marginally after widely expected 25bps rate cut, first one in 4 yearsa
Light US economic calendar means looking for news headlines elsewhere
“As it stands “the data are not supporting a reduction in the policy rate,” Waller said. “But if 2025 plays out like 2024, rate cuts would be appropriate at some point this year.”
I remember the term leads and lags from my studies in economics but it is not a term I see these days. While I am not privy to the way corporates hedge currency risk, leads and lags are important to understand as they can have an impact when a currency is trending as a business looks to hedge risk or take advantage of it. .
A MISTAKE boyz n gurlz …
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US 10-YR 4.478% -0.047
“Treasury yields fall as investors weigh the state of the U.S. economy” – cnbc
and earlier this morning: “Fed’s Bowman says more progress on inflation needed before further rate cuts” – cnbc
POOF! confidence in “on sustained path towards 2% inflation target”