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[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

Pronounced risk off into ‘Liberation Day’, though crude remains underpinned on US-Iran relations

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 6 things you need to know for today’s market.

6 Things You Need to Know

US President Trump is said to be pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy as they prepare for ‘Liberation Day’ on April 2nd; reportedly revived the idea of a flat universal tariff single rate on most imports.

European bourses and US futures in the red given the above and into month & quarter end, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5%, ES -1.0%; NQ -1.3% with NVDA pressured.

DXY has been on either side of the unchanged mark throughout the morning, EUR and GBP flat/slightly softer while USD/JPY hit a 148.71 low as the Nikkei 225 entered correction territory.

Fixed benchmarks bid on the broad risk tone, German State CPIs sparked a fleeing move lower into the mainland figure, JGBs slipped as the BoJ cut its bond purchase amounts.

Crude firmer as geopolitical tensions outweigh the macro tone following reports around Trump on Iran, XAU at a fresh record high, base metals dented.

US President Trump threatened to bomb Iran if a nuclear deal can’t be reached, while he also warned of secondary tariffs on Russian oil.

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[GVI Forex 2]

Why is consumer confidence sagging and there is increasing talk of a recession risk (how about stagflation?):

I just turned on the tv and saw these headlines:

Coffee prices surging, highest in decades

Cost of a new car could rise by $10,000+

Inflation expectations at a 32 year high

[GVI Forex 2]

Reminder, it is month/quarter end where forecasts have been for USD demand for rebalancing and adjustment of FX hedges,

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART – Safe haven

JPY getting the safe haven flows, helped by a fall in US bond yields )10 YEAR 4.20%) In a risk off start to the week.

Trendline broken at 149.80 following the failure to reach 151.30

Key support at 148.15… only below it (and then 148) would shift the focus from 150.

Intra-day range: 148.70-149.74

Conspiracy theory says, if I was the MoF/BoJ I would be on alert to prevent a meltdown if the downside starts to accelerate.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD DAILY CHART –   NEXT TARGET?

Soars to another record high (3128) as Trump Liberation (reciprocal tariff) Day looms.

The surge in GOLD should be setting off alarmw in the White House but it is falling on deaf ears,

No reason to guess at a top so if I had to try, I would put 3150 and 3200 on the radar. In the meantime, use the new rexord high (3128) as the key resistance.

On the downside, 3057 is closest key area so 3080-3100 needs to hold to keep an uber bid.

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

Risk off… stocks down, bonds up, gold soars…and..

… dollar mixed.. JPY up on safe haven flows… AUD, CAD, NZD down.. EUR and GBP not far from unchanged

What caught my eye in EURUSD was a failure at 1.0850 (high 1.0849)

Looking ahead: German CPI, Chicago PMI… month/quarter end
… April 2 reciprocal tariffs

[Rafe]

JP//property market will start to boom soon… esp investing in high rise buildings.

[Mtl JP]

poetry ?

“Stock futures slip as a jittery Wall Street awaits ‘Liberation Day’” – cnbc

[Mtl JP]

GVI 11:32 / I , thusly , stand corrected.

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

The coming week brings crucial economic data amid intensifying global trade tensions triggered by new US auto tariffs. Investors will watch closely for signs of labor market softening in the US, stability in Eurozone inflation, and growth signals from Asia’s manufacturing sectors. Central banks, including the RBA, remain cautious, navigating sticky inflation and slowing demand.

Econoday

[GVI Forex 2]

Actions speak louder than words.

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[GVI Forex 2]

JP, Trump said in a phone call with NBC that he doesn’t care if car prices go up

The White House did damage control with the statement you posted but it was mopt what he said.

[Mtl JP]

re “Doesn’t care if car prices go up”

and the full and real statement by President Trump:

Asked if he was concerned about car prices going up, Trump said, “No, I couldn’t care less, because if the prices on foreign cars go up, they’re going to buy American cars.”

Trump says he ‘couldn’t care less’ if foreign automakers raise prices due to tariffs – cnbc

[GVI Forex 2]

Risk off start (stocks down)

TrumP:

Threatens to attack Iran if no nuclear deal

Threatens Russaia with sanctions on oil

Doesn’t care if car prices go up

Watch out for month/quarter end flows

[Rafe]

Those in the western world can exit BTC and look into diversifying into safe assets such as buying residential & commercial properties… the property markets there are gonna enter a boom.

[Rafe]

March 29, 2025 at 4:26 pm #21664

Global Synchoronity between central banks to bring about a global stagflationary environment… to de-dollarize into CBDC which is repegged and counter pegged to dollar via gold, of which the plan is to make dollar become worthless but it’s not possible for them to shake up the dollar as a reserve… so they first buy large amounts of gold…

They are going to fuck with my status quo and suffer consequences of their own doings.

If they feel adventurous enough to do that then it’s better for them to go jump into the sea rather than try to tamper with the reserved status,…

They have done some real damage to the franc’s safe haven status already.

[Rafe]

From the man on the street on Trump’s auto tariffs

What is the end game on auto tariffs?

stop reading comics… quit worrying… get a sports bike and fly like Mike…

It’s all there in the first video: >> watch?v=4zDBeuqOYQo

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights: 31st March-4th April 2025

Highlights include US Trade Policy Review, US NFP and ISM PMIs,RBA, ECB Minutes and Canada Jobs

[Mtl JP]

Prudent Trader Asks AND Considers

Lets say President Trump and his counterparties around the globe press on the tariff trade war accelerator
and Recession AND Inflation both hit AT the same time ?

[Mtl JP]

New Month and New Quarter
–
First some base points from which markets will head into a new month and quarter
SPX 5 day -1.53%; 1m -6.27%; 3 m -6.53%; ytd -5.11%
DJIA 5 day -0.96%; 1m -5.15; 3m -3.28%; ytd -2.26%
Nazdaq 5 day-.25%; 1m -8.09%; 3m -12.16%; ytd -10.29%

Group-think pundits observe that Q1 bear sentiment is typically a seasonal phenom.
(As is, typically, positive for the DLR)

Partial-group think optimists speculate that next month “could” offer “an opportunity” for players.

Recent incoming data related to growth in economic activity has been rather dismal, referring to metrics that the FED claims matter to it.

Businesses and individuals, for their part, have been sending out smoke signal data indicating concern about future financial and economic growth prospects. Some portion of pundits are protracting that into increasing odds of coming Recession. But not all – i.e. no consensus on the matter.
There appears to be a softening amongst pundits about “soft landing” and increased itchings about potential of stagflation in various degrees of intensity.

On the topic of anchor, inflation and expectation:
University of Michigan: Inflation Expectation (MICH

[Author]

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