old news by now (i.e priced in) so fwiw
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squeal ings about in australia about things being expensive and expected to not just continue to be so but also grow more expensive
Somewhat significant misses on the JPY data as Japan slides to now the world’s 4th largest economy behind US China and Germany… XXX/JPY looks like it could be on the verge of higher numbers. Will be interesting to see where CNY comes in next week….
EURUSD Analysis: Downtrend Continues, Resistance and Downside Targets
The EURUSD pair remains below a falling trend line on the 4-hour chart, indicating the continuation of the downtrend from 1.1139.
As long as the price remains below the falling trend line, it is likely that the downside move will persist. The next target area for the pair would be around 1.0670, followed by 1.0600.
The initial resistance level is located at 1.0750. A breakthrough above this level would suggest a consolidation phase for the downtrend is underway. In such a scenario, the price could retest the 1.0805 resistance level. If this level is surpassed, it may trigger further upside movement towards the falling trend line.
It is important to note that only a break above the trend line resistance would indicate the completion of the downtrend.
In summary, the EURUSD pair remains in a downtrend, with the price staying below a falling trend line on the 4-hour chart. Downside targets have been identified, while resistance levels have also been highlighted for potential retracements. The completion of the downtrend would require a significant break above the trend line resistance.
It is generally safer to trade in anticipation of how a market will trade ahead of a data release than holding a position into the data.
This is my philosophy and you can see why after the surprise CPI print.
US 20-year 4.28% – note JP’s past posts of 4.20% being sort of usd pivot.
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The best way to trade is holding a position and let it rip into the data… it’s like getting on the big kahuna to the shore line… This ain’t just talk I do this in real life…
sometimes you guys sound so scared that i read your posts and then I get scared too!!!
But speaking of ample liquidity maybe worth putting a note on the calendar to watch out for March 11 when BTFP (Bank Term Funding Program) runs off…. Maybe some liquidity choke points to follow soon after….
Not tradable on the basis of 1- timing and or 2- Frequency. There’s nothing saying it HAS TO BE 3 cuts of 25 bps. It could come as a combination of…
Time for the financial press and those calling for financial armagedon to tap the breaks and give yesterdays CPI some perspective. The YOY number actually dropped sowing signs of annual improvement. The MOM numbers missed expectations by 0.1 otherwise known as a rounding error OR like previously mentioned maybe expectations were just too low…..
This number alone is not enough to send equities into a tailspin or the USD to the moon. IMO I see it as a range trade 1.0650-1.0750 until next NFP with some bias towards relative weakness in the CHF and JPY….
FED’s policy mistake
according to mohamed
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“june and three cuts is much more realistic BUT
IF the FED delays much longer than that AND doesn’t come through with three cuts … then THAT will be the policy mistake” – Feb 14, 2024 Mohamed El-Erian
So here I have a Qtn: is mohamed’s fed mistake idea tradeable ?
animal spirit wants to know
TIA !
This is EURUSD 30 min chart – Pattern suggest that the next move is down. Without some outside push, we should be trying the low again in next few hours
DLRx 104.73 / 10-yr 4.3030
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things appear somewhat settled this morn.
except Japanese suits who whine and complain about things ‘rapid” LoL
come ….. intervene yayayaya
some players – the revolutionary pioneer types – now pricing june fed cut
couple of ecb gumflappers still on deck
16:00 – barr yaks