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[SF Monedge]

JP – To explain my position on Trump vs someone else, I communicate with people across the country from all circles…the real estate fraud prosecution has no merit.  There were no victims, and every bank approved the transactions in question and none have complained.  Trump will appeal, which will go beyond the election process.  His base is very angry, millions of democrats have left the party.  Biden’s administration is an economic and national strategic disaster and done.  It will be someone else.

[Mtl JP]

how SF ?

[SF Monedge]

JP – my bet is, barring something dramatic, it will be Trump vs someone other than Biden

[Mtl JP]

and IF you have too much idle boring time on hand …
–
Joe Rennison in New York Times posits that
“Wall Street Is Already Placing Bets on the Biden-Trump Rematch”
Traders and strategists are thinking about all the ways that November’s election could alter the mood in markets.

anyone can point out the bets to me ?
tia!

[SF Monedge]

JP – Indeed.  Hence the only thing that looks good until the minutes is long Aud from 6550 just for pips, long Usd/Chf from 8790 for the same reason, and job Usd/Jpy in and out.  Then the market may talk with the minutes.

[Mtl JP]

monedge – players appear more idle than not ahead of aft’s minutes and nvidia report AFTER the bell hahaha.
you have to appreciate player sentiment in face of streched run … like everyone in a theater eyeballing exits just in case the crowd starts to rise and head for exits . I love tentions like this

re DLRx … dlr has low steam pressure in the tank. imo for it to rally it ll need some more new awsome incoming data.

in the meantime minutes will be made to make players still think that yes rate cuts are coming, just not yet anytime soon aaka May, and just waiting for more convincing data. so tame your horse, ya hear ?

[SF Monedge]

DXY 104.10.  In our model today above it is strength and below it is weakness.  Usd/Chf is the most extended on a percent basis and has been moderately under pressure.  Everything else is in the middle and could bolt either direction so they are good for buy/sell stops or waiting for some strong moves to exhaust.  Preference for us is the stops.  So best R/R at the moment (6:05 Pst) is long that pair from lower (currently 8795).

[GVI Forex 2]

US Dollar Index (15 min chart)

So far it has been one of those days.

USD is off earlier highs so looking a tad soft but all pairs are trading just about unchanged on the day except NZDUSD (+0.28$)

[Swiss Frank]

Maybe for lack of anything better to do I kinda like adding to silver longs or at least opening with less than a full allocation here. Regardless of whether NVDA beats (or not) maybe stocks correct for a couple months, bonds go down for the wrong reasons, and well, at the end of the day there’s still a lot of liquidity, and its gotta go someplace… Maybe consolidation from May last year sees upside resolution towards 26.00 over the next few weeks/months. Maybe…

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Market Open: US futures are lower ahead of NVDA earnings, NZD bid & Crude softer; FOMC Minutes due

Newsquawk.com

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD – 30 min chart

Res – 1.08105 Supp – 1.07850

[Belgrade Bobby]

FX option expiries for 21 February 10am New York cut

The first being for EUR/USD at around 1.0778-80, which could help to limit any downside action in the session ahead. That also sits near the 100-hour moving average, seen at 1.0776 currently. As such, the expiries could double up as a supportive layer for price action before rolling off later.

Then, there is the one for USD/JPY near 150.00 again. The large expiries there should keep price action more limited and centered around the figure level still, as we have seen through the week so far.

[Mtl JP]

brave new world ?

fwiw:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rise-teen-stock-traders-gamification-trading-apps-creates-new-gamblers

[Mtl JP]

froth fear greed
–
Over half of the gains in the S&P 500 so far this year can be ascribed to just three stocks: Microsoft, Meta (aka Facebook) and Nvidia.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD – one possibility just occurred to me – if it goes bellow 1.07600 , it would be a perfect tail for Sale….just a thought

[Mtl JP]

according to
Reuters
Marketmind: Markets wait on Nvidia, Fed minutes

according to
Bloomberg
Hedge Funds Cut Magnificent Seven in Last Quarter, Goldman Says

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY

Still in a corrective phase.

Supports at 150.050 , 149.850 and 149.300

Resistances at 150.400 and 150.885

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD

Supports at 1.08000 and 1.07850

[Forex Cycle]

AUDUSD Bounces, But Can It Break the Downtrend?

AUDUSD has staged a comeback from its recent low of 0.6442, but faces a stiff challenge at the upper boundary of the falling price channel on the 4-hour chart. This resistance zone will determine whether the current rally is a mere blip in the downtrend or a sign of a potential trend reversal.

Upside Potential: Can the Rally Extend?

• 0.6624 Resistance in Sight: If the bulls manage to push the price above the price channel resistance, it could signal a significant breakout and pave the way for further gains towards the next resistance level at 0.6624. This would indicate a shift in momentum and potentially mark the start of a new uptrend.

Support Levels to Watch for Downtrend Continuation

• 0.6520: Initial Hurdle: If the upside momentum fades and sellers regain control, a breakdown below the initial support level of 0.6520 could trigger another decline. This could lead to a retest of the 0.6442 support level that marked the recent low.
• Lower Support Levels: Further breakdown below 0.6442 would open the door for falls towards the 0.6400 area, solidifying the downtrend and suggesting the recent bounce was just a corrective move within the larger downward trend.

Overall Sentiment

The outcome of the price action around the 0.6520 support level and the price channel resistance will be crucial in determining AUDUSD’s next move. A breakout above the channel could indicate a potential trend reversal and upside potential towards 0.6624. Conversely, a breakdown below 0.6520 and subsequent breach of 0.6442 would reinforce the downtrend and suggest further decline towards 0.6400 or lower.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.

[Mtl JP]

watson … can you help plz
–
CNBC
More Americans are feeling better about their finances—here’s why, in 5 charts
10 hours ago

MSNBC News
Why are Americans unhappy about Biden’s economy?
5 hours ago

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