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[Ab hk]

I believe that this is the last part of the craziness. Good Luck to all before the avalanche takes place. Let the stop sell guide you.

[SF Monedge]

150.10 equilibrium

[SF Monedge]

Usd/Jpy is an equilibrium price for the pair in our model, the pair has been sideways overall for 5 days.  As long as the market is not too aggressive in the eyes of the BOJ I could see the market testing 151 due to interest rate differentials and other factors, but clearly that level is a concern for the BOJ.  A bit of a quandy.  Favoring the bid from the 149.50 and 150 areas unless the market gives up.

[SF Monedge]

Adding long Aud from 6542 to hold if it sticks

[SF Monedge]

Adding long Gbp from 1.2614 and targeting 2680 or higher if it holds in general

[Mtl JP]

hello millionaires and billionaires (I almost feel ashamed for the billionaires to include millionaires in same sentence)
evasion .. avoidance .. one can (or should) carry more significant consequence than the other n’est pas? watson
–
* The nation’s millionaires and billionaires are evading more than $150 billion a year in taxes, according to the head of the Internal Revenue Service.

* The IRS, with billion of dollars in new funding from Congress, has launched a sweeping crackdown on wealthy taxpayers, partnerships and large companies.

* “We have to make investments to make sure that whether you’re a complicated filer who can afford to hire an army of lawyers and accountants, or a more simple filer who has one income and takes the standard deduction, the IRS is equally able to determine what’s owed to us. That’s a fairer system,” IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel told CNBC.

Tax evasion by millionaires and billionaires tops $150 billion a year, says IRS chief

[SF Monedge]

As long as 43.05 holds in the 10yr note Usd should remain bid overall in our model, otherwise it likely heads for 42.80

[GVI Forex 2]

S&P global flash PMI lower.

There was a time this report was ignored as ISM PMI gets more attention.

Whatever the case, bond yields reacted and usd came off its highs(probably overreacted)

[SF Monedge]

2y and 5yr announcements at 11am EST may have a bit of an effect on price activity due to the 2yr/5yr spread carrying weight for institutions in portfolio management.  My bet is a solid announcement and added stability to treasuries and Usd.  Difficult to gauge reactions on those things ahead of time, especially considering most institutions have already priced in various scenarios to some extent

[Mtl JP]

nearing 10am NY
either one is really capable of jobbing the pricing ying-yangs OR one just rides the +/- 10mins around it

[SF Monedge]

Eur 1.0810 is a key pivot in our model if it holds the pair is bid, if not it’s a sell.  Secondary pivot on the upside is 0830 which should inevitably be targeted if 0910 holds in our model.

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 103.99 responding favorably to yield

maybe things are getting back to the ways they should be
i.e stomp out enthusiastic froth

[Mtl JP]

finaly bond types asking for a bit more compensation
Yield | 9:27 AM EST 4.327% off earlier 4.30

[Belgrade Knez]

EU DO at 1.0815 …… if it closes below it, that would be some nice wick on daily ….

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD

As posted earlier,

Technicals are still positive, expect support if 1.0840 holds

If not then it is back to 1.0800-20

[Swiss Frank]

EU bond spreads should widen as increased deficit financing precludes. Absent other overriding factors it’s ultimately a negative for the €. Maybe.

[GVI Forex 2]

Weekly jobless claims lower than expected (201k)

[Mtl JP]

this peasant would like ideas on how trade this:
Reuters Explainer
–
Why huge European Central Bank losses matter

FRANKFURT (Reuters) – The European Central Bank chalked up another large financial loss in 2023, burning through the last of its provisions, and said more losses are forthcoming as high rates push up interest payments to banks.

While the bank said it can operate effectively “regardless of any losses”, the accounts have broader implications – from reputation and independence to state finances. …/.

somehow, knowing my european princes, reputation and independence are not a part of their calculus.
and when it comes to state finances, again by my own understanding, for them it is “my way or a beating” dictates

TIA for ideas

[Mtl JP]

to re-iterate what is already widely known:
jeff cox:
–
Fed officials expressed caution about lowering rates too quickly at last meeting, minutes show
Jeff Cox

players will probably need to align with what FED considers totality of data inspiring “confidence” ref jerome presser of jan 31

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD Daily Chart

Flash PMI whipsaw day: Up on stringer French flash PMI, down on weaker German PMI

The solid break of 1.0805 saw a move up that came within 9 pips of the target at 1.0897

If 1.08=1.09 has replaced the 1.07-1.08 range then 1.0850 is the obvious bias setter.

Technicals are still positive, expect support if 1.0840 holds

If not then it is back to 1.0800-20

[Author]

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