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[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART

THE FOCUS TO START THE WEEK WILL BE ON USDJPY AND JJPYCROSSES AHEAD OF THE BOJ MARCH 19 DECISION.

The only levels that really matter are 148 and 150 as key levels lie outside of it although 148.03 (and the trendline) are key supports on this chart (suggests 149 as the midpoint)

There are several articles on the BoJ and JPT in our new and outstanding blog

[wfakhoury Amman]

GBPUSD signal for the coming week:
price will consolidate between 12810 and 12690. Any rise or decline in the consolidation area will return to it.
Mostly into the sell mood until it reaches 12690.

[Frano Grgic]

EURUSD Analysis Today 16.3.2024 – EURUSD Price Prediction | EURUSD Week Ahead Forecast #eurusd

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead March 18-22nd

MON: Chinese Retail Sales (Feb), EZ Final CPI (Feb)

TUE: BoJ Announcement, RBA Announcement; German ZEW Survey (Mar), Canadian CPI (Feb)

WED: FOMC Announcement, PBoC LPR, BCB Announcement, CNB Announcement, BoI Announcement, Japan Market Holiday (Vernal Equinox Day); UK CPI (Feb), New Zealand GDP (Q4)

THU: BoE Announcement, SNB Announcement, Norges Announcement, CBRT Announcement, European Council Meeting; EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Mar), US Philly Fed (Mar), New Zealand Trade Balance (Feb), Japanese CPI (Feb).

FRI: Japan’s Rengo (labour union) 2nd Pay Tally, CBR Announcement, European Council Meeting; Australian Jobs Report (Feb), UK Retail Sales (Feb), German Ifo Survey (Mar)

Click below for an in-depth analysis by Newsquawk

Newsquawk Week Ahead March 18-22nd – Highlights include: FOMC, BoJ, RBA, BoE, SNB, China activity data, PBoC LPR & Nvidia GTC

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR

XAUUSD closing down on the week as/…

Range narrowing with blue AT lines building to the downside but so far holding off retracement.

For a retracement to build momentum, 2147 would need to be firmly taken out.

[Mtl JP]

next week
–
BoJ on Tuesday. Gaming BoJ is filled with risk to one’s posi-pips
FOMC on Wednesday. Current player speculation is about re-guiding from 3 cuts to 2 cutsBoE on Thursday. No presser. Odds of lowering hawk-talk yikyak.
SnB unlikely to front-run ECB.
RBA – wiggle this way wiggle that way

[Mtl JP]

source says
–
Reuters Mar 15, 2024
IMF probing cyber security incident, source says no top managers affected

[SF Monedge]

I hope it is ok, I have a bit of inspiration.  I live on top of a hill next to a church and convent, the head nun is praying under the 30 foot cross this morning.  She does that in the rain also.  Changes your attitude.  Currencies challenge you soul.  Something like that is valuable.

[Mtl JP]

which, translated into degenerat-ese, would mean

EURO to 1.0810/00 AND – failing there – clopiddy clopp to low 1.07ish and 00

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0887
–
parked just abouve earlier 1.0875

the risk to the puppy going higher is jerome
IF he somehow thins out the smoke of recent likely rate cuts later in 2024 smoke signalings

CME Fed Watch Tool: 55%

[SF Monedge]

JP -EU needs s safe haven kitty.  Next week UsdChf should target 8800 and 8860 to open Monday.  Just my parameters.  Usually does not miss.  Ordinarilly currencies reverse the flow of Monday and Tuesday on Wednesday and continue Thursday only to make everyone nuts on Friday when portfolio managers are seeking balance.  A bad word lol.  This week it stuck, hence why we are all shaking our heads.

[Swiss Frank]

Frank what is your take on SNB (in)action next 03/21 ?
tia

A 0.1 or whatever move in interest rates from the SNB is immaterial in my opinion. Miniscule move don’t matter. SNB has other tools that are more effective for a small export driven economy ie the FX rate.

[Swiss Frank]

Hah…. Thanks, I think. Funny day. Just when I thought ok we’re set for some across the board directional follow thru -> Nothing.

Lets review
– Quad witching today.
– US yields higher.
– BoJ guy hints at policy rate change (higher) at next weeks meeting.
– Dovish comments on economy and rates (lower) from ECB guys.

Yet-> JPY weaker, EUR stronger against some flat against others, Copper Silver higher. Not a whole lot of logic found here.

FX market (read EUR) remains as non-comital as it’s been over the last year. I think it’ll stay that way with a bias against the weak links (chf) over the next few weeks.

Stocks I think are running on air which could see a downdraft the next six weeks or so. That said is it really worth trying to time the stock market as in the long run it only goes up.

Bonds not going up any time in the forseeable future. There’s A LOT of people that enjoy earning an effortless 5%……

[Mtl JP]

My current view is that the picture should be sufficiently clearer when the Governing Council meets in June (as we will have a lot more information – particularly on wage dynamics – available in our deliberations) to give us sufficient confidence to make monetary less restrictive. – Makhlouf

[SF Monedge]

Bobby – I let the chicken go lol

[Mtl JP]

scardycrow crows:
should be . then again may not be
–
March 15 (Reuters) -The European Central Bank should be able to cut interest rates in June, policymaker Gabriel Makhlouf said on Friday.

[Mtl JP]

fwiw probability of SNB cutting in march is less than 30%

[Mtl JP]

CBs, rates and make or lose trading opps 3rd week of March
–
Frank what is your take on SNB (in)action next 03/21 ?
tia

For a few reasons I do not think SNB will cut despite – relatively to other jurisdictions – nice inflation/ary numbers.
As I am biased (i.e. opinionated) I am expecting to continue to be swissy negative in my trading it.

[SF Monedge]

Frank I believe that is what it is.  Btw, my fathers name was Frank and my favorite is UsdChf lol.  I get lonely without you posting..

[SF Monedge]

Jp I noticed that yesterday, clear as a bell, but a bit unusual.

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