EURJPY is currently an outperformer, following the “path of least resistance:, trading above its major resistance at 164.29. This leaves the next target as guesswork (165 is one of those magic levels). Back below 164.29, at a minimum, would be needed to slow the move up.
Much might depend on whether USDJPY can trade similarly by taking out its major resistance at 151.92.
So far, offsets out of this cross are helping to keep EURUSD above its supports (see prior posts).
It took 17 1-hour candles to go from 1.0853 to 1.0873 and just 2 to break back below it. This tells you the current risk in a market that has had bouts of what we like to say “trading bid in an offered market” with buying driven more by its crosses (e.g. eurjpy) than outright vs the USD.
I don’t like to draw conclusions from a pair trading in a 43 pip range (1.0834-77) other than to say 1.0887 and 1.0906 would need to be broken to change the picture.
EU daily on the down move on my chart…….weekly closing below 1.0800 will signal down move too…..then we have monthly to close below 1.0600 to confirm it…..this could be bridge too far for this month, but……let see what FOMC have for us today
Gold is in a buy mood to reach 2161.70, as confirmed.
2154.80 is the consolidation level; buy below it, sell above it, and tp at it.
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2154.80 Reached from 2160.30
from two market nurses:
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The Fed Is Playing a Waiting Game on Rate Cuts. The Rules Are Starting to Change. – By Nick Timiraos in WSJ
While investors focus on whether officials project fewer rate cuts, the Fed looks ahead to recession risks
Jeff Cox
* The Fed has a lot to do at its meeting this week, but ultimately may not end up doing a whole lot in terms of changing the outlook for monetary policy.
* This meeting likely will be all about the Federal Open Market Committee’s “dot plot” of individual member’s interest rate expectations.
* Officials also will release their quarterly update on the economy, specifically for gross domestic product, inflation and the unemployment rate.
THE qtn now is …
– is jerome a presidential lackie and will he do things to juice the economy (and therefore help revive price-inflation)
— can he even provide hints of whether the FED is edging close to rate cuts
all is in diplomacy, tackt and jerome communication skill determining player perception of what he ll be saying.
Jerome’s own legacy as inflation fighter is on the line, the qtn is does he care.
I think he does. BUt … I may be wrong: I do suffer from imperfect judge of character.
USDJPY Analysis: Breakout and Potential for Further Upside Movement
USDJPY has successfully surpassed the 150.88 resistance level, with the upward movement from 146.47 extending to a peak of 151.33.
As long as the price remains above the ascending trend line on the 4-hour chart, there is still potential for additional upward movement in the upcoming days, with the next target estimated around 160.00.
The initial support level to monitor is at 150.35. If the price breaks below this level, it could suggest a period of consolidation for the uptrend starting from 146.47, with the pair likely finding support at the rising trend line.
A decisive break below the support provided by the trend line could indicate the potential completion of the current uptrend.
Currently in our view June USDollar and June Yen futures remain Buyer controlled; any price dips can be confidently bought. Conversely June Euro and June British Pound futures remain Seller controlled; any price rallies can be confidently sold