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[Mtl JP]

funny that lagarde felt compelled to pipe in about inflation and – attention – needing more evidence and in so doing sharing nothing new beyond aping yakkings from her minions.

EURO 1.0849
If this puppy s going to move I d be expecting it to be down
below its 200day is 1.08 and 1.0775

R 1.0875

[SF Monedge]

Viewing a 10 year monthly time frame in UsdJpy the pair went parabolic April of 2022 from 112.  One might think BoJ is hoping the Fed/market will cause a pause entering these levels, or they have a quiet agreement with the Fed.  Or if they don’t get what they want they will be in the market.

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.287
FOMC and jerome’s yak
–
Unlikely that we will see anything different than 5.5% and anything different than 75bps from their famous dot plot.

the FOMC-ers will goad jerome to whine about some stickiness in inflation and potential for a bit of a rise BUT – on the other hand – offset that with optimism about lower growth and ouch ouch out shed a tear lower jobs.

Are players positioned for a hawkish jerome ? There-in lies the bet, especially if jerome comes out and be perceived by players even minutely leaning towards easing, even if just not yet.

Lets see IF I can make some moolah off a communication breakdown (cue Led Zeppelin)

[SF Monedge]

I’m trailing UsdJpy with sell stops entry a bit further out than market and adjust as it keeps going.  No way I am long this pair from here out with BoJ lurking.

[SF Monedge]

Our colleagues are confident June 10yr futures have set a low at 110 , so buy dips would be the tone; lower rates coming with the futures price rally from 110 .

[wfakhoury Amman]

USDJPY
In a buy mood.
151.95 confirmed will be reached.
15240 confirmed, too, will be reached.
Any decline below 150.50 will return to it.

[Swiss Frank]

clearly…. options are really the only way to express the short jpy view…

And even with that the preference seems to have been to go the other way and play for the reversal…..

[Belgrade Bobby]

Very difficult to sit in JPY for weeks/months , with it’s ups and downs….

[Swiss Frank]

What there seems to be especially in eur/usd and to some degree gbp/usd is a lack of desire to commit. The weaker links (jpy and chf) are easier to punch down on so there in lies the path of least resistance. That said I don’t get the feeling there are that many people that have been short jpy for months or even weeks…..

[Swiss Frank]

I think Fed stays data dependent and not influenced by elections either way. History since 1980 supports this.

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/what-has-the-fed-done-in-election-years/#:~:text=Since%201980%2C%20the%20Fed%20has,hiked%20in%20five%20election%20years.

Since data has tended to come stronger than not, there shouldn’t be any urgency from the Fed to start the cutting cycle.

I would however expect a high degree of coordination between the Fed and the Treasury on managing federal cash flow….

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY WEEKLY CHART – Major RResistance In Sight

There is only one level worth noting in USDJPY, the major resistance at 151.92

A break above this level would leave a blank on charts so use magic levels (152, 155, etc) as potential targets.

So it is a case of boom or bust at 151.92. If I were in the BoJ’s shoes, I would have 2 choices: defend 151.92 or let it run through 152 and then come in covertly to smack it back down but its shoes are too big for me to fill.

Whatever the case, watch 152 as this will dictate whether there is a run at 153.50 and 155.00 or form a range to 150.00.

[GVI Forex 2]

Bobby

Zero chance that rates will change.

No chance Fed will turn dovish.

Surorise would be if the Dot plot shows 2 cuts (see JP’s post on this)

The other surprise would be if the first-rate cut is pushed out past June although as I posted the other say, I heard that the odds had shrunk to 50/50 for the first-rate cut in June.

FX will probably take its cue from how bond yields move but this should be a non-event meeting unless Dot plot turns more hawkish.

More comments welcomed

[Bobby Belgrade]

Would anyone care to explain here how the FOMC decision and any speculation further on will reflect on USD…

What is going to happen with EURUSD if rates are cut ?

What if not ?

What if rates are raised ??

And why…what is behind the strength/weakness of USD i cases above ?

What is the logic of all of it ?

[Belgrade Knez]

Bobby 11:37 am

Like! 🙂

 

[Mtl JP]

from my earlier post link to jeff cox’s piece
fwiw
–
…”investors will look at how the 19 FOMC members, both voters and nonvoters, will indicate their expectations for rates through the end of the year and out to 2026 and beyond … it would only take two FOMC members to get more hawkish to reduce the rate cuts this year to two. That, however, is not the general expectation.” …

[Mtl JP]

fortunately or not
–
the FED yik-yaking about its policy still trumps any other CBs’ yakings about their policy.

Key is not to have an opinion but voratiousness for posi-pips off the prevailing relative policies dynamic

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Resistances : 1.08850 1.09450

Supports : 1.07950 1.07550

Aside of these obvious levels, and the fact that we are in Sell mode right now, there are few facts that has to be taken into account…

That downtrend line up there – it is more of a correction angle , then anything else…

So they still might try for the 1.10+ area

I would like to see it bellow 1.06 , before we declare the doom for EUR…and some real sharp angles as well.

Intraday – watch for 1.08350 support zone , and go with your Sell signals accordingly .

Tonight FOMC – Economic Calendar – stay clear of it !

[Mtl JP]

USDJPY 151.72
making 2x top here

it would appear that yen carry trade , with BoJ out of the way and the FED unlikely to be cutting anytime soon, is an attractive play for some players

[Mtl JP]

market holding its breath for
–
Reuters:
March 19-20 FOMC second day: statement released 1400 EDT/1800 GMT; news conference expected 1430 EDT/1830 GMT

[GVI Forex 2]

Here is our blog article describing “trading bid in an offered market.”

What Does it Mean When a Currency Feels “Bid in an Offered Market?”

[Author]

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