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[SF Monedge]

I’m just taking the overshoot as JP mentioned earlier.   I’m buying Sterling to go with the flow and pick away at it while entering a sell Euro to sit on headed into Powell, who will just verify AGAIN that it is higher for longer with the rates.  Think that might affect Dxy after they run out of gas reacting to the data earlier?  Inevitably one might think.

[SF Monedge]

Short EurUsd light on the 104.40 Dxy bounce, a bit on the risky side, no problem bailing if necessary.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.079i8 (after slight 1.0810 R overshoot)

Is it euro enthusiasts quelling their enthusiasm OR dlr enthusiasts gaming powell fear of sticki inflation ?

I submit it is not time for filosophicala analysis, rather reactionary sharp shooting trading

[GVI Forex 2]

ISM services miss on the downside… see our Economic Calendar

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0788
–
puppy is negating earlier dump
Res 1.08 / 1.0810-ish

ECB suits continue making june cut noises

12:10 – powell = today’s anxiety / trade opp source . Free choice which.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY last 164386

See my April 3, 2024 at 1:28 pm path of least resistance post.(EURUSD and USDJPY are both up).

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR Chart

Backing away from a new 2288 high. Supports at 2250 and 2228 .

NoA reiterated its 2024 price target at 2400 (I am only the messenger)

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 YEAR AT 4.409&

[SF Monedge]

Still on the buy side of AudCad from low 8810-20 area, see Aud having legs overall for now unless something dramatic develops.  Perhaps a sudden drop but not enough to change the equation.

[SF Monedge]

Correction – 112.325

[SF Monedge]

As a proxy, entering the sell side of Singapore Dollar vs Yen (Sgd/Jpy) here 132.50 due to nominal margin/differential exposure vs other pairs .  Can afford to sit on it due to the nominal exposure.

[GVI Forex 2]

US yields up after string ADP report – 10 year at 4.40% again

[GVI Forex 2]

EURHPY 4 HOUR CHART

The market is so far choosing the path of least resistance by selling JPY on its crosses.

This is seeing both EURUSD and USDKPY both bid, the latter sees the 151.97 (and BoJ threat) looking while the latter is staying below 1.08 (upside limited while below it)

See the chart for EURJPY levels

Nice call by MOInedge on short JPY vs all

[GVI Forex 2]

This is what is looked at for Fed rate cut expectations

CME Fed Watch Tool

[Mtl JP]

Not of any s/t market playability, too bad:
–
wsj – Janet Yellen Missed the First ‘China Shock.’ Can She Stop the Second?
The Treasury secretary heads to China this week with a tough economic message as the Biden administration moves toward raising tariffs.

[Mtl JP]

There is probably (65% odds) still a load of june rate cut enthusiasts.

Players are pricing higher odds of July cut, although not a 100% certainty.

Earlier 4 cuts player enthusiasm appears to be gaining traction for 3 cuts by end of 2024.

Three 2024 cuts mantra has yet to be confirmed by jerome – wanna-be master of ambivalence – himself

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC 4 HOUR CHART — 65000-70000?

 

While I don’t trade BTC, I get requests to post a chart.

In this 4 hour chart I have bracketed 65000 — 70000 with moves outside it so far not following through after holding a dip below the bottom end..

Expect choppy trading (an understatement for BTC0 while within this range, next risk )retracement or run at the high) will be dictated by a solid move outside it.

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, they seem, to be voicing the same theme — rate cuts are still on the table but there is no rush to start cutting.

Powell will likely repeat what he said last Friday and it is how the market spins his comments will dictate the reaction.

ADP and ISM Services PMI are the focus beforehand.

[Mtl JP]

play on OR of nerves ?
–
US 10-YR 4.365% UNCH LAST | 6:18:11 AM EDT

[Mtl JP]

divergence ? convergence ? ambivalence ?
it is a gum-flapping fed yakker rain wednesday
–
no less than FIVE of them, starting with bowman but players likely shaking the dice for
12:10 – jerome’s yak

[Author]

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