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[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY  30 MINUTE CHART – AN ALERT OR WARNNG?

USDJPY came within a couple of pips of 151.97 yesterday and has backed off a touch but remains bid despite the BoJ intervention threat (note weak JPY crosses.

AN ALERT OR A WARNING

I RECEIVED AN EMAIL ABOUT USDJPY THAT I WOULD NORMALLY IGNORE EXCEPT IT CAME FROM SOMEONE WHO IS A WELL-CONNECTED SOURCE.

THE XXX (NAME OMITTED BUT IT WASN’T THE BOJ) MAY DROP THE BALL ON USDJPY ONE FINE MORNING.

I am only the messenger but would be remiss if I did not pass this on given the source.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – THE OUTPERFORMER

Note, my posts yesterday about following the oath of least resistance.

AUDUSD has so far been the outperformer today as flows from the JPY continue to keep USDJPY in sight of 152 but reluctant to challenge the BoJ while the USD trades soft elsewhere, helped by offsets from JOPY crosses.

I had to go to a 4-hour chart to find the key resistance, which is not until .6635 so damage so far has not been fatal.

In the absence of nearby support, look at former resistance for the first levels. of support or revert to shorter time frames.

[GVI Forex 2]

LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) – Traders and investors are looking to global interest rate cuts and a closely-fought U.S. election to drag the world’s currency markets from their deepest lull in almost four years.
Measures of historical and expected volatility – how much prices move over a set time period – have sunk in recent months with the world’s biggest central banks stuck in a holding pattern, depriving FX traders of the divergent moves between regional bond yields on which they thrive.

Currency markets are in a deep freeze. Rate cuts and Trump could thaw them

[SF Monedge]

AB – love your comments.  On that note of BoJ, I’m in sell side again here EurJpy on a wait and see position I can sit on with no regard for buyers

[Ab hk]

I think BOJ is using the same strategy here, but to protect a depreciation level is much harder than an appreciating level. Will make all positions tired, and then a snapback fiercely.

[SF Monedge]

In about out all day in AudUsd on 8-10 pip dips, gold correlation is fair today. Same with Sterling long side.  Euro will dip eventually as will non Yen pairs, even if not tonight in Asia.  UsdJpy does not like 152 at all.  If it is compromised it won’t last long.

[GVI Forex 2]

A global economic recovery is fueling a blistering commodities rally in 2024 — threatening to derail the Federal Reserve’s efforts to curb inflation and potentially clouding its path to cutting interest rates by mid-year, according to market strategists.

Oil, gold and the dollar are surging. Here’s why that could derail the Fed’s rate-cut outlook.

[Ab hk]

Can I claim “2300 reached”? LOL

thinnest hour, concerted positions , easy iob

[GVI Forex 2]

STANFORD, California, April 3 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve officials including U.S. central bank chief Jerome Powell on Wednesday continued focusing on the need for more debate and data before interest rates are cut, a move financial markets expect to occur in June.

Powell sticks with Fed’s cautious rate-cut strategym

[GVI Forex 2]

STANFORD, California, April 3 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve officials including U.S. central bank chief Jerome Powell on Wednesday continued focusing on the need for more debate and data before interest rates are cut, a move financial markets expect to occur in June.Powell sticks with Fed’s cautious rate-cut strategym

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD – Fight of System Titans 😀

Bears wouldn’t like to see it above 1.08450 , and prefer a sharp drop from there Bellow 1.08000, straight for the 1.07100

Bulls would love to pick it up in 1.08000 area, or slightly below and go for 1.08800 in first attempt.

Pay attention to the red channel – you can be both – a bear and a bull , as long as you pick up the right time and the right place 😀

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4-HOUR CHART – Typical Start to the Quarter

Those who follow me should know how I feel about the start of a new year and new quarter, this one had liquidity dry up even more due to the 4-day Easter break.

This makes it hard to absorb flows and often sees false starts and whipsaws, as has been seen so far this week.

With that said the dollar is on its back fOOt and the level EURISD bears do not want to see trade is above 1.0868.

Whatever the case, EURUSD 1.08 will set the near-term bias.

[Ab hk]

Gold is waiting for the close to do the easy job, 2300+  by AI driven buy…..,

[SF Monedge]

Euro futures have been at a dead stop at 1.0865 for an hour.

[Ab hk]

We have several things can get a sudden plunge. Let’s see which starts first for the mother retracement. things like 1980s closer and closer.

[Ab hk]

The gold bounced right on hourly support, relentless buy…
Dlr/jpy has a ceiling but gold is still luring fishes in. Net not full yet.

[Mtl JP]

jerome claims he n the committee are dealing with two-sided risk

discussing the topic makes his stutter

[Mtl JP]

jerome states on one hand, that job salaries are coming into alignment (i.e. not going thru the roof),
on the other hand states that employers are still having hard time finding / hiring labor

with that kind of confusion …

[Mtl JP]

players’ job is not to agree or dis-agree with the “correctness” or “expertise” but to game the player collective’s reaction to the yakkitty-yak

[GVI Forex 2]

I posted this yesterday and it was like deja vu today.

Lesson: Looking for divergence

US bond yields rose sharply earlier to 4.40% (1o year) but the USD did not come close to retesting intra-day highs.

When yields backed off the highs, usd backed off as well.

[Author]

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