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[Mtl JP]

oh boy … looks like market has decided on FED yakker’s credibility pecking order
–
cnbc
“Fed Governor Bowman says additional rate hike could be needed if inflation stays high
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Friday that it’s possible interest rates may have to move higher to control inflation,… ”

and bowman is not – NOT – near much less at top – of pecking order

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0842-ish
–
NFP nega-reaction now fully POOF!’ed.

As mentioned earlier, if puppy closes N of 1.08 …
1.0866 and + come on radar.

[SF Monedge]

Expecting Dxy 104.25 to hold and catch a bid heading into next week barring something dramatic.  So sell Eur and Gbp on bid waves is what I expect.  Fundamentals could change that equation of course.

[SF Monedge]

Bobby from here out I shall refer to you as “my heavenly father.”  Side note, have sell side orders Gbp/Usd 2620/30 area.

[Belgrade Bobby]

April 5, 2024 at 1:56 pm

Gold Intraday

If it closes 4h bar ( in 7 minutes } above 2290.00 , new High is in the cards.

Who’s your Daddy 😀

[SF Monedge]

See Usd/Cad being a bit under pressure remainder of month and Gbp/Usd likely trying to hold a bid remainder of month.  Aud/Usd is dropping but Aud/Cad is not, will be testing the buy side at or just under 8900 Aud/Cad if it catches the offer and gets there (likely will not occur until next week).  Fundamentals reasonably support.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 30 MINUTE CHART – ANOTHER NEW HIGH

IT IS EASY TO SAY IN HINDSIGHT BUT OFTEN A CORRECTION IS NEEDED BEFORE SETTING UP A RUN TO A NEW HIGH (OR LOW).

IN THIS CASE, IT IS ANOTHER RECORD HIGH, NEEDING TO HOLD ABOVE THE FORMER 2305 HIGH TO KEEP THE VERY STRONG BID.

AS I HAVE BEEN SAYING WHEN IN UNCHARTED WATERS THE MOST RECENT HIGH (OR LOW) BECOMES THE KEY LEVEL IN THE ABSENCE OF ANYTHING ELSE ON A CHART.

[SF Monedge]

Will try the sell side of Usd/Cad 3639 if seen, had an order up there but no fill.  See 3580 being tested possibly early next week of sooner (not likely).

[SF Monedge]

Barring something flagrant I am expecting 10yr yield to close the week near 43.60.

[SF Monedge]

Pips locked in, looking for .30 or lower on UsdJpy and at least 0850/60 EurUsd

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks bounced, US bond yields couldn’t get through 4.40% (last 4.353)

[SF Monedge]

Lightly entertaining the bid in EurUsd just under the figure, zero apprehension to cut close or reverse.  Probabilities favor it holding albeit even if temporarily in my view.

[SF Monedge]

Of note, EurJpy still holds an overall bid even though we have seen solid sell waves this week so it could stabilize around current levels.  Regardless, my preference is the sell side on buy waves.

[Mtl JP]

SPY vs SPY
–
watson wants to know which is stronger
DLRs uP side OR DLRs down side
TIA

[SF Monedge]

Short UsdJpy again here @70 and purely week ending/intraday.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.08
–
Beyond 5-min or 5-pip frames I am euro-bullish (as I think bigger fish are also positioned thusly atm)

Price-action around 1.08 should see good support.
IF puppy closes above 1.08 the reaction from 1.084x will be erased

yakkers
– barkin (yakking already) on econ outlook
– 11:00 – logan
– 12:16 – bowman – risks in monetary policy (personally I like to think OF rather than IN)

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR chart – 1.08 sets the bias

News reaction merry-go-round WEEK

Does anyone remember the Chucky movies where his head would spin around 360 degrees?

Monday: Strong US PMI (USD up)

Wednesday: Sloghtly (softer USD)

Thursday: Uptick in weekly jobless claims (USD dips but did not last)

Friday: StrOnger US jobs (USD up)

Next week is US CPI and the ECB. Logic says this should put a floor under the USD ahead of it.

1.08 WILL SET THE TONE WITH A KEY SUPPORT AT 1.0764=3 BELOW IT.

COI and

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Close tonight bellow 1.26100 would set up a very Bearish tone for the next week.

However, close above 1.26250 would call for a run over 1.27000

[Belgrade Bobby]

Gold Intraday

If it closes 4h bar ( in 7 minutes } bellow 2285.00 , 2255.00 will be in sight.

If above 2290.00 , new High is in the cards.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Resistance at  1.08250 1.08500 & 1.08900

Support at  1.08000 1.07650 & 1.07250

Next 4h are crucial – if 1.08000 taken out, pattern would suggest that doors are open for attack at 1.07000.

However, if the price returns sharply above 1.08450, target in sight will be 1.08900, and it won’t hold this time.

Currently Bears are in the driving seat.

[Author]

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