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[GVI Forex 2]

US yields higher

10 year 4.434%

[Mtl JP]

Friday attempt at infecting peasants
–
Bowman says inflation still too high to justify Fed rate cuts
“we are still not yet at the point”

Barkin said Fed would be ‘smart’ to take its time to cut rates due to persistent inflation
“No one wants inflation to reemerge,” and something about FEDs having “time for the clouds to clear before beginning the process of toggling rates down,” (the clouds barkin refers to is “the strong labor market”

—
In my op in a relevant commentary to the two headlines above and jerome’s early Friday chitchat,
Tyler has posted an interesting piece and a reminder on his website on Sunday: “People Are Not Inflation Idiots” by Jeffrey A. Tucker

People Are Not Inflation Idiots

“There’s something about employed intellectuals. When they are trashing popular wisdom and perceptions of regular people …

[Belgrade Bobby]

Looking again EURUSD – Daily so so…can be both ways..but Weekly…ffs…Up

[Belgrade Bobby]

Mtl – I am not biased – just saying what I see.

It is not out of mind to have rate drop like a rock tomorrow, but so far it calls for more Up

[Mtl JP]

11:36 pm Belgrade Bobby / in bottom line are you biased uP euro – conditional of 50 breakout N ?

Looking at the weekly euro chart suggests april is – historically – biased down of DLR
(and DLRx too)

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

With inflation cooling and economic activity no worse than steady, wait and see is the coming week’s policy directive. Forecasters expect no change at a run of central bank meetings: Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Bank of Canada both on Wednesday, the European Central Bank on Thursday, and the Bank of Korea on Friday. Federal Reserve minutes on Wednesday will detail conditions from three weeks ago when policymakers were cautious in their policy outlook. Data since have not changed the overall picture.

The week’s biggest data release will be US consumer prices on Wednesday which are not expected to show much cooling. If upward price pressure on food prices has abated, energy prices – particularly for gasoline – continued to rise in March. And more important than ever will be service prices that, despite past rate hikes, have continued to be a steady source of upward pressure.

Industrial production from Germany on Monday is not expected to improve, while monthly GDP data from the UK on Friday is expected to be mixed. Chinese inflation pressures in data for Thursday are expected to remain dormant, while Indian inflation data on Friday are expected to remain well above target… Econoday

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Week Ahead – 07/04/24
Supports at:

1.08250  1.08000  1.07750  1.07350

Resistances at:

1.08500  1.08750 1.08900

Daily chart – Continue reading …

Weekly

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS IS AN ARTICLE POSTED IN OUR BLOG AND A MUST READ, ESPECIALLY FOR LESS EXPERIENCED TRADES BUT ALL TRADERS SHOULD TAKE A LOOK.

\Why have I lost my entire margin yesterday, and how to avoid it next time?

[Mtl JP]

according to New YorK Times drivel
by Alan Rappeport
–
U.S. Warns China About Its Exports and Support for Russia
Beijing’s economic policies threaten American workers, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen told Vice Premier He Lifeng in the southern city of Guangzhou.

“U.S. Warns” would be “janet yellen says”

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX (US DOLLAR INDEX) WEEKLY CHART – 105 IS THE PIVOTAL LEVEL

Sometimes it pays to step back and take a deep breath to look at the market with a clear eye. This follows Friday’s head fake after the initial reaction up in the USD ON A STRONG us JOBS REPORT DID not follow through.

With the EURO representing 57.6$ of the USDX, its chart can be used as either a lead indicator or to confirm what you are seeing in the EURUSD.

Looking at the weekly chart, the 105 level is pivotal with a marginal new high just above it not holding.

So if you are looking for confirmation that EURUSD has legs to the downside, USDX probably needs to establish firmly above 105.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – ANOTHER RECORD HIGH

This was a bleak day for anyone trying to pick a top in XAUUSD on Friday. The reason I say this is because you rarely see such a move in the absence of news unless the market is caught the wrong way and in this case, standing in front of a runaway train..

As I have said many times, there is no reason to try and pick a top (or bottom) before there is a reason to do so.

This is why I rely on my Amazing Trader charts to tell me when there is potential for a low or high.

Looking at this chart, expect a strong bid if it stays above 2305. The key support level is 2265, only below it would suggest a short-term high would be in. Not seen on this chart, there is support as well at 2280.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Brent Crude Oil – Weekly chart

[Mtl JP]

wsj:
–
Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: Focus on U.S. Inflation Data, ECB Decision
Brisk Hiring Bolsters Fed’s Cautious Stance on Rate Cuts
Eurozone Inflation Cools, Setting Stage for June Rate Cut

also and apparently
You’ll Look Better Naked—and Other Ways to Convince a Skeptical Spouse to Paint the Bedroom Pink

[Mtl JP]

Degenerate Traders and Animal Spirits
–
BoC to start cutting rates in June, but greater risk is delay – Reuters poll
BENGALURU (Reuters) – The Bank of Canada will cut its key interest rate in June, a strong majority of economists in a Reuters poll said, although they also said the risk was the first cut would be later than that, rather than a surprise earlier move.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead 8-12th April:

MON: Bank of Israel Announcement, Japanese Earnings (Feb), Swiss Unemployment Rate (Mar), German Trade Balance (Feb)/Industrial Output (Feb), EZ Sentix Index (Apr)

TUE: EIA STEO

WED: FOMC Minutes (Mar), BoC Announcement, RBNZ Announcement, US CPI (Mar)

THU: ECB Announcement, OPEC MOMR, Eurogroup Meeting, Chinese Inflation (Mar), US PPI (Mar)

FRI: IEA OMR, Chinese Trade Balance (Mar), German Final CPI (Mar), Swedish CPIF (Mar), UK GDP (Feb), University of Michigan Prelim. (Apr)

Click to see detail previews and analysis

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC 4 HOUR CHART – Taking a Back Seat to Surge in Gold

BTC continues to consolidate with levels seen just outside 65000-70000.

Weekly chart shows key level at 60750 and 73747 (record high)

[Mtl JP]

“… what the world and our citizens expect of us,”
yellen via cnbc

[Mtl JP]

wsj – Janet Yellen Has a Warning for China
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in China with a tough economic message as the Biden administration moves toward raising tariffs

[SF Monedge]

JP – re Bowman…classic coach who can’t recognize talent if its 10 feet away from him/her/pick a pronoun.

[Mtl JP]

and altho barkin is voter , NFP apparently left him with his mandible a-gog: that is “quite strong jobs report.”

duh. like a wooden scewer through Count Dracula’s heart causing torpor as their sacrifice ratio quest (despite contary yak from jerome) is not working.

maaami .. maahmi .. help help with sacrifice ratiooooo – aahhh…

[Author]

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