Margin impact on the EurChf shorts is minimal so almost surely the right side. Israel could wait for the weekend in a behind the scenes handshake deal with UK, France, US, Canada to not disturb markets and allow time for assessment before Monday but they will strike when the tactical advantage is determined. Not today likely.
GV – was watching exactly what you point out. I’m looking to sell Sterling if it gets close to 125 but so far yes you could see the yield holding and the reaction. I’m mainly active in AudCad and EurJpy and with the right areas seen UsdJpy. I know you really don’t like UsdChf but I like the thought of trailing it waiting for a middle east shock, I don’t believe they strike until tomorrow NY time.
Monege, not unless EURUSD can get back above 1.0650. Just made a tepid attempt that did not follow through. As soon as bond yields started to rise the dollar came off its lows. 10-year last 4.542% vs. a low at around 4.612%
Bottom line is Usd is on its back foot although it could hold 106. Preference is short with a trailing sell entry in UsdChf in case of sudden shock from middle east.