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[GVI Forex 2]

From the Morning Bid

Whether it’s fatigue (gold), short-covering (bonds), worries about the impact of higher borrowing costs on growth and demand (stocks and oil), or just seeking refuge from the barrage of headlines from Washington, investors are trimming back risk.

[GVI Forex 2]

April 18 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Amid a flurry of commentary from global financial leaders at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring meetings in Washington, and with many markets having undergone huge moves in recent weeks, investors are taking a bit of a time out.

Morning Bid: Investors take breather, FX plots thicken

[michael Calif]

thanks Jay, watching it closely though; USD down-Euro up may not last more than a couple weeks, per Option Profile

[GVI Forex 2]

Michael, good call on EURUSD

[GVI Forex 2]

I POSTED THIS IN OUR BLOG YESTERDAY AND IT TURNED OUT TO BE A TIMELY ARTICLE.

LOOKING ACROSS CURRENCIES AND OTHER MARKETS TODAY SOME WILL CALL IT A CORRECTION DAY.

i CALL IT A LIQUIDATING MARKET DAY, ONE THAT NEEDS TO BE TRADED DIFFERENTLY AS YOU WILL SEE IN THE ARTICLE.

What is a Liquidating Market and How to Trade It?

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC 4 HOUR CHART – HAS THE AIR COME OUT OF THE BALLO0N?

As I pointed out previously, BTC was not seeing safe-haven flows despite the current geopolitical situation.

This may have been a clue that the air was coming out but looking at this chart the blue AT lines dominating showed a risk on the downside.

What amazes me about BTC is that is when a technical level or pattern holds in something that can move 7% on a Saturday.

With that said, the move below 60000 came close to a key level (see chart) which if broken would leave a void until around 50000.

This shows the importance of 60000 as a pivotal level and the key support line below it.

[SF Monedge]

Balance for EurChf has adjusted to flat now so sell waves should be expected to be under normal until Israel hits.  UsdChf could hold here temporarily at 9100 which could give EurChf enough to hold.  Risk aversion is growing and so Chf itself is only a matter of time for hard downside moves once Israel hits in my view.  This includes options.

[Mtl JP]

judging from say 15 min chart of dlrchf priceaction the only type cashing in is that mossad type

[michael Calif]

June Jap Yen futures have finally reached a buy point under .6550, per Option Profile, rally forthcoming

[SF Monedge]

That and risk aversion finally kicking in Jay I believe.  I’m short everything vs yen again and UsdChf and EurChf and long AudCad, barely missed fill on EurCad below.  Market is speaking.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBP dips after BOE Gov Bailey says he expects a sharp drop in next months inflation report.

Offsets from GBP crosses giving EURUSD a lift and seeing USDJPY dip while GBPUSD dips
_____________________

Bitcoin drops to test 60k – chart to follow later
—————————————————————

US stocks down

[michael Calif]

GVI, the Option Profile is a proprietary instrument owned by our small startup company.  If you go to gtwo3.com, there is some explanation  …

[Mtl JP]

IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
STEADY BUT SLOW: RESILIENCE AMID DIVERGENCE
APRIL 2024

… “the global view can mask stark divergence across countries. The exceptional recent performance of the United States is certainly impressive and a major driver of global growth, but it reflects strong demand factors as well, including a fiscal stance that is out of line with long-term fiscal sustainability (see April 2024 Fiscal Monitor). This raises short-term risks to the disinflation process, as well as longer-term fiscal and financial stability risks for the global economy since it risks pushing up global funding costs. Something will have to give.” …

what and when could that be ?

[SF Monedge]

In long side AudCad low 8850’s, overall trend trade on pull back

[GVI Forex 2]

Michael, when you have time perhaps you can explain the option profile.

[michael Calif]

thanks GVI, we like long-side only in June Euro futures starting Friday Apr 19, per current Option Profile setup  …

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – TRYING TO CORRECT BUT…

Looking at this chart the key level on the upside is clear at 1.0665.

Often, when in a sharp trend, there needs to be a squeeze on weak positions to run some stops )e.g. above 1.0665) before setting a fresh run at a new low or high.

This is the setup after an invisible hand held its finger in the dyke at 1.06.

Whether it materializes or not is still up in the air so just pointing out a risk.

Otherwise, the trend is still your friend.

[michael Calif]

June Gold futures remain a sell above 2400 (starting @2421) from the Feb 14 lows, per Option Profile

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – NO CHANGE

SAME LEVELS AS POSTED EARLIER A CONSOLIDATION CONTINUES BETWEEN 2362-98

[GVI Forex 2]

Heads up — US yields dipping again – could be risk off but no news, just one of those days

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