Yen futures are near the absolute lows tested several times this week. It would be a stretch in my opinion to justify the concept of the price to go lower under current conditions (Asian central banks verbally drawing boundary lines in the strength of their currencies-widespread volatility-geopolitical) so the futures sustaining a bid (sell side of Usd/Jpy) is clearly dominant. So we have highly likely seen the highs of the day in Usd/Jpy and Usd/Chf over the prior 6 hours (4am PST right now). Buy side of oil and gold obviously. Usd/Chf sell side. Usd buy side elsewhere. I’ve been on the sell side since Asia in both pairs as I mentioned for two weeks. See zero reason to change that right now.
1:45 Monedge // The belligerents appear to be tactically playing to their internal political ego – “Iranian air base reportedly attacked in ‘limited’ Israeli reprisal strike and a look at me how meek and ginger I am “Iran downplays apparent retaliation and Israel keeps mum in sign both sides are looking to climb back from brink of war following international pressure for restraint” (timesofisreal) for international propaganda posturing purposes while the leader of the indisdensible nation and most powerful military pipsqueeks that “The US was given advance notification Thursday of an intended Israeli strike in the coming days, but did not endorse the response, a second senior US official said.” (cnn) trying to plead innocence.
In the meantime MY price of a liter of gasoline went up from $1.65 to 1.9x overnite. I have not yet looked at some of my energy digging and distribution stocks.
Odds of escalation appear – to me – low atm, as even published records out of Iran seem to highlight its heroic and defense and that the attacker did not go after cenrifuges at nuclear installation (al j)
Not a good one if you got stopped (with slippage) only to see a moves back the other way.
In any case enough event risk over the weekend to make this a defensive Friday with the deck cleared of risk off stops until the overnight news driven spike lows.
Tonights military stikes against Iran and other countries is causing a high degree of volatility across the Usd, Gold, Oil, Treasuries, Stocks et al. This could strongly affect the macro picture across the board over time. It could even cause alternate items such as bitcoin. Commodities as well. Depending on severity.
April 19 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.
Asian markets will hope to end a bruising week on a positive note on Friday, but fraying global sentiment and a reluctance to take on much risk ahead of the weekend amid persistent Middle East tensions could limit any upside.
US500 4 HOUR CHART -Make or break time for the S&P
Falling blue AT lines indicate momentum continues to build to the downside as equities in general remain under pressure as the reality of a Fed on hold sinks in.
The key focus for all equities is on the S&P 5000 level… it is probably more important than any technical level at this stage.
Have been short GbpJpy and GbpChf from this mornings highs but have closed them here GbpChf 1337 and GbpJpy 192.30 although they may well drop further.