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[michael Calif]

….   Option Profile continues to flash short Gold futures, long Yen futures

[Ab hk]

Yen will bring gold to hell

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD DAILY CHART – 1.25 PATTERN

Similar to the EURUSD 1.07 pattern cited earlier GBPUSD has extended its pattern trading on either side of 1.25 to 6 days in a row today.

Over this period there have been”

3 closes above 1.25

2 closes below 1.25

As I noted in EURUSD, the longer this pattern goes on the greater the chance of a directional move once it is broken.

Note today GBPUSD traded lower, helped by GBPJPY selling but the GBPUSD sell part was more easily absorbed than the USDJPY selling out of the cross (same for EURUSD selling more easily absorbed).

[GVI Forex 2]

Using crosses to trade spot 101

In today’s case, the market is having more difficulty absorbing the selling of USD vs JPY than buying USD as offsets elsewhere.

Feel free to contact me if you want a further explanation.

[michael Calif]

Jay – Option Profile is our proprietary instrument at gtwo3.com.  It tracks “house” money versus player money in thr futures casino … (“house” money almost always wins it’s bets)

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WAS OUT EARLIER. HOPE OR A VIEW?

“The new emerging consensus from Wwll Street c-suite is that Powell wants to cut rates by September” according to Fox’s Gasparino.

Source: Newsquawk.com

[SF Monedge]

My note on worker productivity is for the overall, not this report which moderated.  Gbp should inevitably begin pricing in Fed rate cut in the near future and target 2800 in my view.  Price activity is the sell side this morning but the complementing issues are bid, which is why I am selling euro but trying to position long in Gbp.

[GVI Forex 2]

WHEN YOU SEE TWO CURRENCIES TRADE IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS VS. THE USD YOIU CAN ASSUME THERE ARE CROSS FLOWS DRIVING THE MARKET.

NOTE TODAY USDJPY IS DOWN, AND EURUSD AND GBPUSD ARE BOTH LOWER.

As explained in the following…

How You Can Use Currency Crosses to Trade Spot Forex

How You Can Use Currency Crosses to Trade Spot Forex

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 30 MIN CHART

It has been one way (all blue AT lines) since the bounce from yesterday’s intervention low (152.99)

It has not just been USDJPY trading down but JPY is firmer on its crosses, which has seen the uSD firm vs. the EUR and GBP.

.
‘

[SF Monedge]

I’m long Gbp 2480 which is very aggressive, likely moves further toward 2440 but locked so lets see.  If not, small tiny gain and reload deeper, or hold if it sticks.

[GVI Forex 2]

Michael, can you explain Option Control. TIA

[michael Calif]

…  Option Profile continues to to reveal buyer control of Euro futures; buy all dips (like today’s)

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – 5000 oe bust?

You can look at any stock indices but the one level that will grab headlines is S&P 5000

On the US500 the key area is 4987 with 5007 and 5000 standing ahead of it.

So far this area is being protected.

Note different brokers may have different CFD price feeds, even for the same symbol.

[GVI Forex 2]

I pay attention to what Bobby says on the EURUSD. As he posted earlier, so far a good guide

Technically speaking, this does not look good for the EUR , and as we can see lower and lower Daily Highs in previous days, picture is slowly starting to get some sense…

BUT focus is mainly on the (firmer) JPY

[Mtl JP]

fwiw observation
–
DLRx on the hourly is painting a H&S formation
potential break down of the R-shoulder should be good odds play

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 105.70

I think dlr pops uP merit examination and assesment for a short stab.

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 105.63
–
After jerome’s yak players are left with the suggestion that rates have likely peaked and that FEDs next rates move is likely down although not soon fault of “no conviction” level data.

Bottom line
– Dlr is now vulnerable. Move sub 105.4 would see me jump in join the slide for potential 104.50/40

imo patience , usually, brings rewards

[SF Monedge]

Labor productivity saw a slight increase which counters the slight increase in wages paid so it is creating a bit of a stalemate on the data.  Hence an initial lack of conviction in markets.  That may change as the day transpires.  I like the bid in Gbp on dips at least for now.  See dow futures trying for 38500+ inevitably.  Yields and such favor Usd overall in the bigger picture in my view so selling it is a bit of a contra-position.

[SF Monedge]

Stocks should try to hold the bid today, so far the participation is muted pre-market.  If the bid holds that helps Euro / Gbp vs Usd.

[GVI Forex 2]

US Yields ticking higher (delayed reaction to earlier data?)

[Author]

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