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[GVI Forex 2]

Japanese and Chinese markets are closed for a holiday today

[SF Monedge]

Like the short as well around here 9105 JP, UsdChf…regarding Summers, he is both highly intelligent but also quite tethered to his opinions even when others disagree.  I think the sudden employ shock is a bad recipe though, surely there can be other ways to tame inflation, taming debt might be one little idea.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART… IF I WAS THE BoJ…

Break of 152.99 has not gone far and this suggests the 153 level will be pivotal.

Now I have been writing about the BoJ looking at the same technicals as we do. In this regard, it would ideally like to see USDJPY get to 150,24, (I am using a daily chart to show what supports lie below)…but

I am not in the BoJ’s shoes but I would be wary of going to the well too often and leave the threat of another surprise attack to keep USDJPY below 155.

With all that said, this is a Friday and this often sees one-way markets as the week draws to a close. Much depends on US data but that is for a discussion later on.

[Mtl JP]

Cemedy Hour with pundits
at WSJ:
–
GREG IP
Stalled Inflation Vexes the Fed. Is It Noise or a New Trend?
The fundamentals suggest inflation should still be headed down, but the Fed isn’t betting on that.

Fed Chair Projects Optimism, But Inflation Data Are in the Driver’s Seat
– By Nick Timiraos

[Mtl JP]

I do agree that the FED is watching job , I do not agree that “it” (the FED or Job Market ?) is difficult to read.

The Fed Is Eyeing the Job Market, but It’s Difficult to Read
Fed officials are watching labor trends as they contemplate when to cut rates. But different measures are telling different stories – By Jeanna Smialek in NYT

The different this and different that is they are only tryinng to confuse and beduffle the trading peasant and to keep the FED obscure.

refer to earlier Larry Summers reference to Sacrifice Ratio

[Mtl JP]

Trade Call
DLRCHF 09100
–
take short on dreak down of .9100 price line
target .90 / .8990
Stop Loss: according to own risk tolerence paras; one could concider N of 9120 depending on “energy” of the pop

the additional potential negative is that this trade would be a negative carry.

[Mtl JP]

likely be a short active trading day tomorrow friday 3rd
–
12:30GMT – NFP experts coalesce around 243K new jobs added vs last 303K reading

[SF Monedge]

AudUsd – Believe bid bias is intact unless 6555 trades.

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTC Daily

Oh my, oh my….do we have some natural channels on BTC – I wasn’t expecting this.

55.700 – if it proves a real support, I will start believing that BTC might become a real currency after all…

Even if it breaks….as long as it stays within the parameters.

This is the reason for me to place it on my Daily watch list.

[SF Monedge]

I’m out flat now with the Gbp purchase at 2525.  May reverse, looking for long positions that stick going forward a week or so (cycle)

[michael Calif]

Option Profile remains short USD futures sunce Apr 22  …

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX 4 hour chart – turning bearish

US Dollar Index (USDX) turning bearish after failing at the top of the range.

Key support is at 105.10.

Reminder, EURUSD is 57.6% of the index which can act as a proxy for the EURUSD

USDJPY is 13.6% of the index.

[Belgrade Bobby]

Economic Data Calendar – Friday

[Belgrade Bobby]

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 105.22
–
with reference to my earlier post about H&S shoulder:
good start

[michael Calif]

For us, the daily big picture is what moves markets .. Option Profile is firmly long Euro futures; prices should move higher until that dynamic changes

[SF Monedge]

Looks like Gbp stalls here around 2525 and head back toward 2500 for now.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4 H – Update

This is the third week that we are starting the day with one outlook, just to close it with an opposite one.

Seems as the Bulls and the Bears are just waiting for some data to try to use it to prove their point.

Personally, I couldn’t care less about data and/or interest rates, news and rumours .

It is enough to determine what might happen next few hours , based on 4h chart, and then switch to 30 min and wait for appropriate signal.

Right now, I have to  tell you that the picture is changing – once again – The pattern calls for a push Up.

Bare in mind that unless 1.07350 and subsequently 1.07550 are taken out, we can have any pattern we like, but we ain’t gonna go higher.

This is not rectangle ( yet ), this is not the range trading ( waves are too short ) – this is some kind of Sideways to Up …a bit….so take it as it comes and do not try to predict bigger picture.

 

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Mucgarl

Thanks for the options profile alert on EURUSd but

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC 4 HOUR CJART – WHAT IS THE NEW RANGE?

I asked this question the other day whether the new range for BTC would be 50-60K or 55-65K?

So, far it has paused above 55K so let’s see if it can print 60K.

This is more of a macro than a technical view but in this crypto, it is a way to make some sense out of the way it trades.

For the bull side, it first needs to re-establish above 59075.

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