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[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY busts throiugh 148.56… now needs to see 148.50-60 tpobecome resistance to put the risk on 148 and below

[GVI Forex 2]

Already-nervy markets were greeted on Tuesday with a full-blown trade war and major diplomatic row, as fears of a first-quarter economic downturn erased hopes that the U.S. economy will sail through the disruption unscathed.

U.S. tariff hikes against Canada, Mexico and China are set to go ahead and have already been met with retaliatory measures from Beijing.

Morning Bid: US policy fog spells trouble

[Mtl JP]

USDCAD 1.4432
–
players are now pricing a 1/4 pt cut march 12th , total of 3 1/4 pt cuts 2025

[Mtl JP]

QUI BONO
–
How brilliant is this:

Europe looks to mobilize $840 billion in defense spending boost, EU Commission head says

New plans from the European Union to increase defense spending could potentially mobilize as much as 800 billion euros ($841 billion), European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Tuesday.

“Europe is ready to massively boost its defense spending,” she said in a statement.

The plan will include 150 billion euros of new joint EU borrowing for member states to invest in defense.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Reversal of fortune

At this time yesterday USDJPY was bid out of weaker JPY crosses, a sharp contrast to where it ia currently trading.

You can see by this chart why the recent 148.56 low is a key level (low so far today 148.60).

Looking ahead, unless 150+, is regained, risk will be pointed down

As JP pointed out, keep an eye on US bond yields.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – KEY RESISTANCE

You can see by this chart why 1.0528-34 is key resistance (today’s high 1.0527)

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART –Rebound faces obstacles

As noted, the move back above 2888 breaks momentum for a retracement… but faces layers of resistance at 2920 (tested), 2930 and 2945 ahead of the record 2956 high.

Look for support as long as it trades above 2888-93. Only back below 2859 would put the low at risk again.

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shoes

The dollar trading generally softer but off its lows in what I call T-Day (aka Tariff Day)

EURUSD above 1.05 but upside paused below a key 1.0528-34 zone/

USDJPY is weaker but so far paused just above its recent 148.56 low,

USDCAD  is lower despite Trudeau retaliating with a 25% tariff on U.S. imports

USDMXN is firmer

XAUUSD is firmer

BTCUSD lower as Trump strategic reserve pop continues to fizzled  out

Key highlight: President Trump’s’ address to a joint session of Congress at 9PM EST

Expect Ukraine, DOGE and tariffs to be discussed,.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0518
–
repeat my March 3, 2025 1:59pm post:
some pricepoints on my concideration radar: 100-dma, 1.0530-ish
here we are.

going forward I am letting bond types set the sentiment’s tone:
US 10-YR 4.172

[GVI Forex 2]

In our blog

Trader Alert: Watch Out For T-Day (aka Tariff Day)

[GVI Forex 2]

Lower USDJPY could be a reaction to Trump’s warning about weakening a currency (scroll below).

Recent@ low is around 148.55

[GVI Forex 2]

Wesley USDJPY could be a reaction to Trump’s warning weakening a currency to offset tariffs (scroll below).

[GVI Forex 2]

In our blog (After today it is 0/4 for the Trump Trade)

What Does the Trump Effect Trade Scorecard Show?

 

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 DAILY – 3+ month low

Watch 20307 and the pivotal 20000 as they stand in the way of the 4 month low at 19887.

Downside contained while above 20000 but rallies will lack follow through unless 21066 is regained.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR – UGLY START TO THE WEEK

Why? Take your pick…

Tariffs…Slowing economy…Geopolitics… failure to regain 6000+

Next at risk … Pivotal 5800 and 5756 if 5832 becomes resistance

Downside contained while above 5800 but allies will lack follow through unless 5986-is regained

[Belgrade Bobby]

XAUUSD – Gold

As I said this morning, Gold tried for 2915.00, but fell short of it already at 2885/2905 zone

Close tonight below 2875.00 would be calling for another leg down tomorrow.

However if 2875.00 gives a support, we should see a bit more Up – apx till 2915.00 – before down again.

[Belgrade Bobby]

BTCUSD – Bitcoin – Update

Resistance at 95K nicely held all attempts, and Bitcoin has returned where it started yesterday.

This is a Bearish pattern , but do not rush before you see it below 84K – that is just in case…better late than sorry.

Targets 77.800 & 65.000

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Keep watching 2888

Move back above 2888 (high 2893) breaks momentum for a retracement… but 2888 needs to become aupport to to

confirm and make a run at 292-.

Otherwise, range is 2832/48-93

[Belgrade Bobby]

Opendoors Technologies Inc. – OPEN

Without surprises Open coming close to Support at 1.10

If it holds for couple of days we might have a turnaround.

However, loss of it would open a road for 0.90

[GVI Forex 2]

Trump tanks CAD, MXN, stocks,… bomd yields fall… JPY the MAIN beneficiary of risk off

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

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