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[SF Monedge]

I may write a book named How To Not Trade Like an Egomaniac.

[GVI Forex 2]

Seeing some correlation with FX as US yields tick higher, 10-year at 4.49% ahead of today’s auction.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4H

Yesterday , as expected support at 1.07500 held it’s grounds and we hit 1.07900 (almost –yeah well , can’t predict it in a pip J .

Overnight the support at 1.07500 was penetrated and now the pressure is on the downside .

Resistance at 1.07550, and Support at 1.07350 .

Next Support comes at 1.07150 – break of would open a space for a larger down wave to 1.06750 at least.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Wall Street looks to have brushed off the latest hawkish Federal Reserve noises and Disney’s outsize swoon, with European bourses stalking new records as Sweden becomes the latest G10 central bank to cut interest rates and oil prices plunged.

Morning bid: Stocks buoyant as Sweden cuts, oil skids

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX 4 HOUR CHART – RETRACING BUT BELOW RESISTANCE

USDX has retraced from its post-jobs report low set last Friday as the USD recovers. However, if EURUSD were leading rather than lagging the USDX would be higher (EURUSD IS 57.6% OF THE INDEX).

The key level is 106.00, with support at 105.09, suggesting the current range is 105-106 for now but only a break of 106.00 would negate the technical risk on the downside.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Make or break level

AUDUSD performing technically, with the 2 blue AT LINES POINTING TO A CHANGE IN DIRECTIONAL RISK THAT HAS SEEN A TEST OF THE KEY .6565 LEVEL (CITED HERE YESTERDAY).

This puts AUDUSD at a crossroads as .6565 is a make or break level. If it holds, then expect a bounce. If it is broken, then look for a test of the trendline or lower.

So far, it has held the first test of this level.

[Mtl JP]

who-whoo, ho-hoow …
reading Buckland’s piece
…”Inflation is close to target, the economy has slowed sharply, and a weak currency has become a headache, leading analysts to pencil in a full percentage point of reductions to put the key rate at 3% by year-end.”…

yellen prattled that economy is firing on all cylinders (I wonder what she would use for euphemism when there will be only lectric motors) just couple of weeks ago

yeah … analysts … pencil … full 1% … how gameable is that eh ?
not by the 5-min retail “trader”

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART – TRADES SOFT AHEAD OF THE BOE

As noted in the Morning Bid report, The Bank of England announces policy on Thursday, and while no change is predicted this week, dovish bets have risen recently. 

This has seen EURGBP firm this week, putting the key .8644 level on the radar as long as it trades above .8581.

Note the EURUSD lag on the USD upside, helped by demand out of its crosses, not only EURGBP but other EUR crosses as well.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0743
d-line

ref my 5:43 pm

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland

The Federal Reserve and the enigmatic path of U.S. interest rates continue to dominate the market’s attention. And with no top tier economic data for a week – when CPI drops – the opinions of policymakers take added importance.

Morning Bid: Pondering the path of Fed policy

[Belgrade Knez]

after Orthodox Easter past weekend, and two days of St. George family celebration (Monday and Tuesday), time to get back and make some $ to cover expenses spent 🙂 ………… looking for EU to fall further more ….. it didn’t retrace to 1.0840 as per the textbook but close enough…..

[GVI Forex 2]

EVEN IF YOU DON’T TRADE THE USDX, IT CAN BE USED AS A CLUE TO TRADE ONE SPECIFIC CURRENCY

What is the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) and How You Can Use it to Trade

What is the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) and How You Can Use it to Trade

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – If I Was the BoJ

While USDJPY 155 is the key psychological level, If I were the BoJ I would want to keep technicals pointed to the downside.

In this regard, the key level is 156.28 as it needs to hold to keep technicals pointed down (i.e. just a retracement). .

[Mtl JP]

Market Intelligence for Peasants
–
Tue May 7 2024
(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said it’s likely the central bank will keep interest rates where they are “for an extended period of time” until officials are certain inflation is on track to their target.

“If inflation starts to tick back down or we saw some marked weakening in the labor market then that might cause us to cut back on interest rates.”

“Or if we get convinced eventually that inflation is embedded or entrenched now at 3% and that we need to go higher, we would do that if we needed to,”

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD was an outlier until it finally paid notice to a stronger USD. Stocks finally paying notice as well.

This is why I made the non-correlation day post as 1 + 1 didn’t equal 2.

[SF Monedge]

So if you want to buy EurUsd again purely intra-day, which I don’t think is prudent right now, right now in the 0750’s (currently 0755) is the place to consider.  Bear in mind the market is selling albeit against the overall grain.  You better like risk.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 107.60
–
my primitive tech studies and signals sugget that since dip from 1.08ish is rather shallow, and seeing as puppy is currently kindof wallowing (or consolidating) odds are puppy will climb again unless it slipps and breaks down 1.074-ish Supp.

[SF Monedge]

If trading Intra-day I would not buy EurUsd again until the 10yr gets to 109’02 or so.  Right now it is still in sell bias against the larger bid.

[SF Monedge]

Tick ratios in S/P 500 stocks have lost 1/3 of their 20 day range indicating consolidation and an upcoming strong move either up or down from current/recent levels.

Looking further out and with a macro perspective, considering that there is a tremendous gap between US stocks and Fed Fund futures, which has to converge at some point, this begs the question – what will happen to EurUsd as that transpires?  The answer would be a selloff in stocks and in bonds and the yields rise over time, especially looking out toward the 4th quarter of the year.

I like Bobby’s notation of Nvidia looking like a sell and I am on board with that.  That could very well impact EurUsd longs if it does transpire.

[michael Calif]

if it helps, Option Profile remains SELLER controlled from the 18709 TOP in NQ futures  …

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