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[GVI Forex 2]

A MIXED POWER OF 50 BAG

GBPUSD 1.2663
EURUSD 1.0844
AUDUSD .6663

EURUSD seems ti be the outlier, HELD DOWN BY eurgbp

[SF Monedge]

JP – 10:34 am … I am viewing that as well with Chf and the Loonie in particular.  I find it difficult to miss a significant shift in the Loonie in motion.

[SF Monedge]

Gold will need some help from the current level to continue and so will Aussie.

[GVI Forex 2]

US yields higher… 10 year tests 4.40%… but don’t chase unless yields climb above this level and stay there

[GVI Forex 2]

This is one of our most popular articles and on a day like this it is worth showing again, for those who have not read it and as a reminder for those who have read it as well.

Here is a test: Check your emotions and see how a currency feels like it is trdoing when it is above/below the “50” level

eurusd 1,0850 (currently below)

gbpusd 1.2650 (currently above)

audusd .6650 (flirting with it)

My Favorite Trading Secret: The Power of the “50” Level

My Favorite Trading Secret: The Power of the “50” Level

[Mtl JP]

THEME
SumTotal:
Dollar down-trend at least stopped if not reversed

[GVI Forex 2]

For Canadian dollar traders — Monday is a bank holiday in Canada,

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

After a week of worldwide stock market records, Friday seems set for a breather – with attention switching to the deepening Chinese housing bust and sweeping government plans to stop the rot there.

Morning Bid: Dow flirts with 40k, China fights homes bust

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Consolidation

XAUUSD trading in the upper half of 2350-2400 with the risk on the upside while above 2351 but with little incentive unless the top end is taken out.

I guess you call this consolidation currently trading above the mid-point around 2375.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – LOWER BUT LAGGING

GBPUSD is lower but lagging EURUSD as EURGBP slips.

You can see the importance of 1.2643 as there is a void of supports until 1.2575-85 on this chart. This also means there are no obvious stops to go after until that level.

This suggests using shorter time frame charts to trade this currency.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 30 MINUTE CHART – REALITY CHECK

It appears markets are getting a reality check that the Fed is likely to stay tight for longer vs. the euphoria of rate cut expectations after the latest CPI report. That’s what news reports are saying anyhow. Equities though are so far little changed on the day.

This chart shows 1.0831 and 1.0819 as supports (also 1.0813 not seen on this chart)

On the upside, 1.0854 is a key level, as it has to stay below it to keep the retracement risk on the downside and a double top at 1.0869 above it.

[michael Calif]

the next rally will reverse Option Profile to SHORT futures (from current Long)

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Watch the FIBOS JUST IN CASE

50% of 1.0813-95 = 1.0854 (61.8% = 1/9844)

The retracement low on Thursday was 1.0854

 

[Mtl JP]

Seeking Alpha curtesy
–
Vladimir Putin has landed in Beijing for a two-day state visit, where he was greeted by Chinese leader Xi Jinping with a red-carpet welcome and a full military band. The trip will build on their commitment to the “no limits” relationship they signed at the Winter Olympics in 2022, just before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As Russia becomes isolated from the West on the world stage, it has sought to boost trade in the East and elsewhere, helping prop up its economy in the face of sanctions.

Quote: “Relations between Russia and China are not opportunistic and not directed against anyone,” Putin declared. “Our cooperation in international matters is one of the stabilizing factors in the international arena.” Xi echoed the sentiment, adding that China will “work together to achieve the development and rejuvenation of our respective countries” and “to uphold equity and justice in the world.”

Trade between the two nations has soared to record levels, rising 26% last year to $240B and hitting targets ahead of schedule. Russia has even overtaken Saudi Arabia as China’s main oil supplier, while the latter sends back key commodities, vehicles and other consumer goods. Trade has also seen Russia’s economy top expectations to expand by 3.6% in 2023, according to the IMF, despite Western efforts aimed at draining the Kremlin’s war coffers.

Reaction? Wall Street Breakfast ran a survey last November, and again this week, on how the U.S. should manage its economic relationship with China. The biggest changes over the past six months showed that more subscribers have less faith in rapprochement and trade deals (24% to 15%), while a greater number believe decoupling and sanctions are the way to go (11% to 19%). It’s noteworthy as Washington has recently threatened additional sanctions on Chinese banks and entities that handle Russian trade involving dual-use goods that can be used for both civilian and military purposes. How does all of this factor into your investing decisions?

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Consolidating?

AUDUSD will likely follow the general USD lead on Friday

Key levels are highlighted on this chart, anything within them would just be a consolidation

Judging by the pause above .6650, this level will be pivotal in keeping a bid focused on .67+

Below .6650-55 would put .6628 in play.

Given the way risk on has helped drive the USD lower, keep an eye on US stocks as they could influence the fx market.

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART – READY FOR A BREATHER?

Those trying to pick a top in US stock indices have found it a painful experience and I am not going to do so now.

With that said, perhaps the DJIA’s failure to hold its long-awaited test of 40000 is saying it is time to take a breather.

What I have done on this chart is highlight the key levels.

On the upside, the only level that matters on top is the new record-high

On the downside, line up the highlighted red support line. on your vhartt

[SF Monedge]

Pooped indeed Jay. Aussie is exactly back at the equilibrium point of some parameters from the start of Asia last night.  The bid is suspect.

[GVI Forex 2]

Monedge, pooped but not popped.

Same with most currencies although CHF and JPY are weakest today.

USDJPY is back abovr 155

USDCHF is holding above .90

Kight data day tomorrow.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Taking a breather

I must be doing something right as there is no change to what I posted earlier

XAUUSD CAME CLOSE TO 2400 BUT HAS BACKED AWAT. MAJOR LEVEL REMAINS ABOVE 2400.

RISk IS STILL POINTED UP AS LONG AS IT STAYS ABOVE 2351 (DOES THIS LEVEL, I.E. 2350, SOUND FAMILIAR> BUT ANYTHING XAUUSD CAME CLOSE TO 2400 BUT HAS BACKED AWAT. MAJOR LEVEL REMAINS ABOVE 2400.

RISk IS STILL POINTED UP AS LONG AS IT STAYS ABOVE 2351 (DOES THIS LEVEL, I.E. 2350, SOUND FAMILIAR> BUT ANYTHING OTHER THAN A BREAK OF 2430 KEEPS THE CURRENT RANGE OTHER THAN A BREAK OF 2430 KEEPS THE CURRENT RANGE

[SF Monedge]

Gold popped a bit earlier and is holding some componenets, could continue to benefit Aussie if it holds.

[Author]

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