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XAUUSD DAILY CHARTT – WHEN WILL IT PAUISE?
XAUUSD is on a tear and surging again into fresh new record highs.
Trying to predict a top in gold is pure guesswork as it is in unchartered waters.
With that said, one potential level is 2450, the “50” level. If it fails to cause a pause then 2500 will be on the radar.
On the downside, former highs at 2417-30 need to hold to keep the strong bid.
EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Watch the “50” level
The way I look at it, there are only 2 key levels on this chart that would trigger key stops, 1.0813 and 1.0895.
This leaves it consolidating within a break 1.08-1.09 range where 1.0850 will likely set its bias and what side is at risk.
Market down today’s range, especially the high for EURUSD and other currencies, and see if it produces a Monday Effect week (I will post a link to an article on this)..
According to IGA majority of IG traders are long US dollar against key currencies like EUR and GBP after soft CPI inflation data led to substantial dollar weakness on Wednesday of last week. In USD/JPY, however, 70% of IG traders with open positions are short as the pair continues to trade above 150.00—not far from historic highs.
NAS 100 (NASDAQ) DAILY CHART – WHEN IN UNCHARTERED TERRITORY
When trading in record high territory, the only resistance that matters is at the most recent record high. Trying to forecast where the ultimate peak may be is pure guesswork so keep an eye on the record high since it is the only level that matters
Expect support as long as it trades above 18000.
EURUSD 4h Prior to Opening  tonight
Support at : 1.08400, 1.08250 & 1.08100
Resistance at : 1.08850 , 1.09000 & 1.09200
Friday’s close indicates continuation of Up move .
I expect Supports to be visited prior to another leg up.
In the case it fails to reach new high , deeper correction will be on it’s way.
In the week ahead there is a light US economic calendar but as we have seen lately even 2nd or 3rd tier data can have an exaggerated impact in these hyper-sensitive markets, This should keep the focus on non-US data in what is generally a light data week ahead of the long US Memorial Day holiday weekend.
There are many reasons why online traders struggle to succeed but the one I am focusing on today is the Psychology of Trading. It is hard enough to make money that you don’t need psychological factors to work against you but that is the reality. As with all my discussions, everything I say comes from experience and not from anything I have read in a textbook.
Psychology of Trading. This article may change the way you look at trading
Psychology of Trading. This article may change the way you look at trading
USDX DAILY CHART – WHERE ARE THE FLOWS GOING?
While the US Dollar Index (USDX) closed about unchanged, the currency market traded mixed with EURUSD closing about unchanged, GBPUSD higher, and the CHF and JpY weaker. The star of the day was gold.
CLOSE VS PRIORÂ Â % CHANGE
EURUSDÂ Â 1..0869 VS 1.0865Â Â Â Â +.03
USDJPYÂ Â Â 155.65 VS 155.414Â Â Â Â Â +.15
GBPUSDÂ Â 1.2701 VS 1.2672Â Â Â Â Â +.22
USDCADÂ Â 1.3615 VS 1.3612Â Â Â Â Â -.02
AUDUSDÂ Â Â 6692 VS .6682Â Â Â Â Â Â +.16
USDCHFÂ Â .9092 VS .9061Â Â Â Â Â Â +.34
XAUUSDÂ Â Â 2515 VS 2377Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.55Do the math.
GBPJPY was the outperformer with GBPJPY coming in second.
XAUUSD outperformed all currencies with a wide margin and weakness in JpY and CHF suggests there might have been XAUJPY and XAUCHF carry trades involved.
US 30 4 HOUR CHART – DJIA CLOSE ABOVE 40000
While US30 closed just above 40000, it stayed below the 40053 high
Looking ahead, there is only one level to watch and that is 40000. If it becomes support and 40053 is taken out next target would be a guess.
Of course, a failure to break the high and hold above 40000 would suggest a faikure but there is noi percentage to stand in from of a fast-moving train.
Of interest is all markets ignored a rise in US bond yields today
Next week sees a very light US economic calendar.
BTC DAILY CHART – LAGGING BUT…
Since BTC trades over the weekend let’s see where the risk lies.
As I have noted many times, I look at round number levels like 60k, 65k, 70k
In this regard, if BTC can hold above 65K then the focus will turn to 70K
If not, then the choppy trade will continue.
So far, BTC has been lagging the move up in gold so see now if it tries to play catch-up.
US 10-YEAR TREASURY – NON-CORRELATION DAY
Note the price of bonds is inverse to the yield. 10-year is currently at 4.418%, the high of the day (low for the bond price)
If the forex market was correlating with the yield in bonds it would be a different story today but such is not the case.
Yields up, USD down gold up. stocks mixed.
Note USD was up earlier with firmer yields but has since decoupled.
This chart is using The Amazing Trader and what amazes me, and I created the charting algo, is how it performs with any instrument your broker offers and in any time frame.
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