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It is easy to get lulled into complacency when volatility is low and ranges are narrow. However, this is the time to raise your alert as markets can move when you least expect it as I explain in the following:
Why Complacency Can Be a Trader’s Worst Enemy
BTC 1 HOUR CHART – TAKES CENTER STAGE
While XAUUSD takes a pause, attention has shifted to BTC which has moved back above 70000.
As I have said many times, I prefer to look at what I call pivotal; levels rather than fine-tune technical chart points.
In this regard, 70000 now sets the bias with the major record high (not seen on this chart) looming at 73389.
Using chart levels, BTC maintains a bid as long as it trades above 68887 but 70000 is clearly the level that will dictate whether it makes a run at the record high.
GBPUSD 1 HOUR CHART – bID DESPITE LOOMING CPI
Logic would normally say GBP should be trading on the soft side ahead of what is forecast to be a sharp drop in CPI to be reported on Wednesday.
So far, this has not been the case but keep this in mind as the day winds on.
Meanwhile, GBPUSD is maintaining its bid while above 1.2696 with 1.2720 guarding key resistance at 1.2726. Above this level, there is a void until 1.28+
AUDUSD 30 MINUTE CHART – AMAZING TRADER (AT) TRADE ALERT
AT Alerts are built into The Amazing Trader charting algo. This is an alert playing out in real-time. (buy .66547/take profit .66711)
In this alert, with a 0.25% risK and a 1.25x reward, the target was just hit as I am typing.
THIS IS ONE OF MY MUST READ ARTICLES. WHY? BECAUSE I HAVE EXPERIENCED IT AND SWORE NEVER TO LET IT HAPPEN AGAIN.
It is often said that 95% of those trading lose money. While the actual percentage is not that high, it is a fact that the majority of forex traders lose. There may be many reasons for it but the one I see as a major one is what I call the Death Spiral.
How to Avoid the Forex Trading Death Spiral
BTC DAILY CHART – Trying to play catch-up
BTC playing some catch u.p.. as I have said many times, I look at pivotal levels, such as 60k, 65k and 70k as well as the patterns on a BTC chart more thn specific technical levels in something that can move 5-10$ in a day or even over a weekend.
So, to keep it simple, if it can stay above 65k, then 70k becomes the focus with major/record levels looming above it.
Big Day fo USDCAD on Tuesday with the release of CPI See the detailed preview: *(scroll below as USDCAD bounced off support)
US 10 Year Treasury Bond – Some downward momentum
This chart shows the price of a 10-year bond and is the inverse of what it yields so when bond prices go down yields go up.
With China’s economy struggling and the government looking to provide a lifeline to the ailing property market, the conspiracy theorist would say watch out to see if it uses some of its 3 trillion in fx reserves for this purpose (implies selling US treasuries..
Another conspiracy theorist would say given the economic tensions with the US China might also be looking to further diversify some USD holdings into other currencies or assets.
Whatever the case US bond yields are creeping higher but as per this chart, prices would need to break the support line to suggest a more pronounced backup in yields.
XAUUSD 1 HOUR CHART – PAUSED ABOIVE 2400
While the breakout levels at 2417-30 did not provide support, chart support at 2403-05 did hold (low 2407).
This suggests 2400 will hold the key to what comes next with support on deep dips as long as it holds.
On the upside, the Powwer of 50 level at 2450 cited earlier (timely post, scroll below) now makes this a key technical level as well.
US500 1 HOUR CHART -Damon Speaks
Equities continue to trade in unchartere waters and in US500, seems dependent on 2300 holding to keep the risk pointed up.
There was a small hiccup today when JP Morgand CEO Jamie Dimon said they are not going to buy back a lot of stock at current prices. Just something to keep an eye on if this spreads elsewhere.
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