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[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY last 156.02 => High so far 156.30 => Scroll down to see my post

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Hourly

Supports at : 1.08650 & 1.08250

Resistances at : 1.08750/800 & 1.08900

Bullish channel within the channel –on the bigger time frames doesn’t look so good, but ADP Employment change can put things in order in a second….

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – WAITING FOR THE ECB

EURUSD seems to be in a holding pattern waiting for Thursday’s ECB decision.

Chart show momentum to the upside but consolidating. A breal of 1.0858 would suggest some risk on the downside BUT only a break of 1.0827 would suggest the high is in for now.  Otherwise, trend stays intact.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC DAILY CHART – 70000

BTC has been flying under the radar lately but as this Amazing Trader chart shows it has been in a consolidation but also slowly building momentum to the upside.

Key chart levels are clear:
‘
If 70K can hold as support there is only one obstacle to the record high.

If 70K fails to hold, it is back to flying under the radar.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – JPY GOES FROM OVERPERFORMER TO UNDERPERFORMER

The failure to sustain a move below 155 has seen a pop in USDJPY and JPY weaken on crosses

Looking at this chart, the risk is still on the downside as long as it stays below 156.49

Using FIBOS:

156.35 = 61.8% of 157.47-154.53

156.50 = 61.8 pf 157.71-154.53

So if I had to choose two levels to watch it would be

156.50 (above would break current momentum)

155.00 (no change to my view as the bias setter)

[GVI Forex 2]

I got this off the web

As of June 3, 2024, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) for the United States was -8.90. The CESI is the difference between official economic results and forecasts, and a sum above zero indicates that economic performance is generally better than expected. The CESI increases as the economy recovers, but decreases quickly as the economy declines

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0876
Here is one good example why one should be selective and discerning of the news source

E.C.B. Is Likely to Leapfrog the Fed on Interest Rate Cuts – New York Times
With eurozone inflation falling, the European Central Bank has signaled it is ready to lower rates this week, diverging from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

By Eshe Nelson
Jun 05, 2024 04:00 AM

European Central Bank officials are expected to cut interest rates this week for the first time in more than five years, drawing a line under the worst of the eurozone’s inflation crisis and easing the pressure on the region’s weak economy.

… blablabla

[michael Calif]

…  exited long Yen futures from May 25 today   :Option Profile

[Mtl JP]

in case someone wanted to know :

Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee Members

[Mtl JP]

EYE on yellen
–

StreetInsider
Yellen says bill issuance not aimed at ‘sugar high’
By David Lawder. WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday rejected suggestions by Republican senators that the Treasury is deliberately increasing issuance of short-term Treasury bills at higher interest rates to try to stimulate the economy ahead of the November presidential election.

Yellen told a U.S. Senate subcommittee hearing that Treasury’s mix of debt issuance, despite a higher share of short-term bills since the COVID-19 pandemic, is in line with historical norms and with the advice of market participants in the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee.

“First of all, let me say that we never time the market. A tenet of Treasury debt management is that issuance should be regular and predictable, and that’s appropriate over time,” Yellen

Forexlive
Treasury Secretary Yellen:Treasury never tries to time market in debt management

[GVI Forex 2]

June 5 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Investor sentiment is fragile as Asian markets reach the mid-point of the week, with bubbling angst and political volatility across the emerging world compounding deepening concern over U.S. and global economic growth.

Morning Bid: Political, market volatility spice markets up

[GVI Forex 2]

stocks now correlating with lower yields.

[Belgrade Bobby]

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[SF Monedge]

There was a mix in forward rates for Euro early on which is now somewhat more decidedly offered.

[SF Monedge]

Knez – 3:03 pm — I look in advance

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0877ish
–
puppy’s energy seems “on simmer”

ecb cut is supposed to be “in the bag” players likely bidding time before taking off in this or that direction pending lagarde’s yak about sticki inflation , increasing wages and alleged recovering growrh

[GVI Forex 2]

It feels more like a new quarter than a new month.

XAUUSD held above 2303

XAGUSD is still sub-30

BTC is above 70k

USDJPY is below 155

USD is otherwise (except vs CHF) up on the day but off earlier highs

Stocks down

Bond yields down

[Belgrade Knez]

June 4, 2024 at 2:48 pm
SF Monedge

Isn’t the new quarter starting 1st of July?

[SF Monedge]

UsdMexicanPeso is a screaming buy due to uncertainty with Mexico’s 1st female President voted in the other day.  Not to mention an historic 37 candidates have been assassinated.  Perhaps we can factor in, as one official pointed out, “she is also a mother and used to dealing with tantrums and meltdowns.”  Nice outlook.

[SF Monedge]

It is a new quarter.  There has been a bit of disconnect between yields and Dxy of late in some sessions, and quite a bit of adjusting convictions in everything including commodities.  Some pivotal areas at question.  My stake is back to the dollar overall until proven otherwise albeit facing rate cut expectations.

[Author]

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