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[GVI Forex 2]

Mixed bag on a NFP Friday.. head spinner

USDCAD higher after a CDA jobs miss… AUD and NZD weaker… EURUSD tests 1.0850, still pivotal… USDJPY EXTENDING ITS LOW AS US STOCKS SLIDE

[GVI Forex 2]

Mixed bag on a NFP Friday.. head spinner

UCAD higher after a CDA jobs miss… AUD and NZD weaker… EURUSD TEsts 1.0850, strill pivotal… USDjpy EXTENDING ITS LOW

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 5 MINUTE CHART – WHAT A CANDLE!

i COULDN’T RESIST POSTING THIS CHART.

Look at the 5 minute candle following the jobs report… shows how skittish marKetS are in an uncertain outlook… only back above 5800 neutralizes the downside risk,

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0867

–

I am biased

Res 1.0950/00

Supp 1.0800/10 , 1.0765

and some other price line points in between

 

[GVI Forex 2]

No big surprises in the jobs data… EURUSD extending high after a brief hesitation,, post data range 1.0843-88… 1.0850 will set the trading bias

 

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[GVI Forex 2]

US AND CDA jobs repoRTA… see our Economic Calendar

Pre-data, market is pricing in 3 Fed rate cuts vs 2 priced in last week.

US 10-year yield 4.25%

[GVI Forex 2]

ALERT

Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, will be the center of attention today as he speaks at the 18th annual U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York City on Friday.

The lunch keynote will be presented by Jerome Powell, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve at 12:30 p.m. ET on March 7, 2025.

[GVI Forex 2]

Treasury Secy Bessent reiterates support for a strong dollar policy… YAWN

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

US equity futures trade modestly higher whilst the Dollar slips ahead of US NFP
 
Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start!

 

Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European indices lower whilst US futures are modestly higher ahead of US NFP.

USD misery continues as DXY dips to 103.60 as EUR’s rally extends into Friday’s trade.

Bunds bounce off worst but remain over 300 ticks lower WTD, USTs await Payrolls & Powell.

Crude firmer with gas inflating on damaged Ukrainian infrastructure.
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[GVI Forex 2]

Re the US jobs report, some way it doesn’t matter much this time around but those who trade know it always matters in terms of a reaction.

This time,, a miss on the downsaide would seem to generate the strongest reaction given concerns over the economy.although it could be explained away by distortions from severe winter storms.

If what I heard is accurate, a stronger report would not necesssarily spell relief with the impact of DOGE job cuts yet to be reflected in the data and tarrifs hanging over the economy as a cloud.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Still in a range

Remains in a tight 2890-2930 range.

Abobe 2930 exposes 2945 and the 2956 record high.

Below 2789 and 2859 expose the 2832 low again

.
Using the 2832-2930 range, midpoint is 2881 but 2900 seems to be setting the tone

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

The dollar trading weaker (except vs commodity currencies),

There was no apparent catalyst as markets await the  US February jobs report (see detailed preview).

Regarding the jobs data, I heard yesterday that the DOGE cuts will not be reflected in this month’s report.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 1h

1.08550 taken out – if it closes this week above it, road is open for test of long time resistance trendline at 1.11800

That much on the big picture, so let’s now concentrate on trading possibilities intraday.

In a bit over 2.5h data are coming, and in mean time this is what we have:

Resistances: 1.08750, 1.09000 & 1.09500

Supports: 1.08450, 1.08200 & 1.07750

I expect pull backs from here, and waiting for a chance to get Long – either on approach to 1.08200 or Pattern creation after some consolidation ( in case it goes sideways and never reach it)

[GVI Forex 2]

Keep an eye on German bond yields, popped higher overnight

2.8845 +0.1015

[GVI Forex 2]

BOJ: Rate hike in May

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[GVI Forex 2]

In our bloig

From the Savvy Trader: Are the FX dynamics changing

The huge increase in EU defense spending coupled with The US tariffs  may be changing the dynamics of the FX market from a responsive sell high buy low market to a trending market within a bigger neutral range.

If this is so then the extent of trend may surprise the complacent.

From the Savvy Trader: Are the FX dynamics changing

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 WEEKLY CHART – WATCH 20000

You can see by this chart why 20000 is significant as below it lies 19600-19882 and then a void.

So keep an eye on 20000 as that will dictate what comes next. .

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 DAILY CHART – New low

US500 setup for a low was never confirmed… This is why it is called a setup

Now it is dependent on 5670-95 holding or see a void on the downside. New low set today is at 5710.

Back above the prior low at 5732 and then 5800 would be needed to ease the risk.

[Belgrade Bobby]

XRPUSD

Another day, another move up – beware of 2.85 and of course 3.00.

If XRP wants to move seriously higher , it should not go below 2.25-2.35

[GVI Forex 2]

Trump again flooding the hedlines. On tariffs, actions will s[peak louder than threats and words but in the meantime will remain a cloud over an uncertain outlook.

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