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[GVI Forex 2]

In a year supposedly filled with central bank interest rate cuts around the world, the prospect of another G10 policy tightening amid fresh strains of stubborn inflation is just a bit jarring.

With U.S. markets anxiously awaiting Friday’s update on the Federal Reserve’s favored PCE inflation gauge, Australia’s dollar jumped 0.5% overnight after inflation there unexpectedly accelerated to a six-month high of 4% in May with core price up for a fourth month.

Morning Bid: Rate angst creeps back; yuan, yen weaken anew

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX DAILY CHART – USD PROXY

Normally I loon at the USDX as a EURUSD proxy (57.6% of the index) but this time it is moving up because of USD strength with the currency up vs. all majors except the AUD (which is off its post-CPI high).

Looking at the chart, major resistane is 106.60 and for it to be seriously challengerd, EURUSD would probably need to at least take out 1.0667 and 1.0650.

 

 

[GVI Forex 2]

When in dount use the “50” level as a focal pointanbd potential resistance.

In USDJPY it is at 160.t0

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD

Right now:

28% of clients accounts -opened positions – Short

72% of clients accounts -opened positions -Long

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART – LAST LINE OF DEFENSE

 

What can I say?

Will the MoF/NoJ defend 160.16 or not?

As I have noted, if I was in the BoJ’s shoes, I would let stops get run above 160.16 and then come I hard with intervention but my feet are too small to fit into its shoes.

AboVe 160.16 there is a black hole that goes back over 34 years.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY ABOVE 160… ONLY ONE LEVEL LEFT, 160.16 (I HAVE SEEN OTHERS SAY IT IS 160.25)

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – WINNING STREAK BROKEN

 

With the GBPUSD 9 candle winning streak broken after a failure to regain 1.27+, attention shifts to the 1.2621 low, but only if it can establish below 1.2669.

With that said, GBPUSD is a laggard as it gets support from various crosses, (EURGBP lower, GBPJPY higher).

This comes in the year of elections where the UK vote is so far not having much impact. Here is an article in this regard

How the UK election could make or break the pound’s run

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDNZD DAILY CHART – ANTHERTWINNER IS…

 

How do we know when a cross flow is driving the spot market?

One clue is when two related currencies move in opposite direction.

This is the case with the AUDUSD (higher) and NZDUSD (lower)

Key resistance next at 1.0944, blocks a move to the maor 1.0997-1.1030.

Expect support on dips while above 1.0840-90, stronger if above the top of this band.

 

 

 

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDJPY DAILY CHART – A WINNER IS…

 

AUD up after hotter CPI (scroll down to see an AUDUSD chart posted pre-CPI).

AUDJPY has been a winner, extending its winnig streak to 9 days and trading in unchartered waters with no clear resistance other than the new high.

Cross offsets are one reason USDJPY is pressing towards 160.

Expect a  buy the dip on any decent retracement unless 103.58 is broken..

[GVI Forex 2]

Summary

France has run high deficits for much of past 25 years

EU seen taking tougher stance with far-right government

France seen moderating spending plans in EU talk

France may be next test of the euro’s foundations

[Belgrade Bobby]

Nvidia NVDA

Not my style to go with stocks early Europe, but Pre market price and current situation called for it..

Monday Nvidia hit low at 118.00 , support held and now it is Up at 128.75

Look at previous pattern on Feb. 21st-22nd – is this the same ? Might be , taking into account huge jump in volume and volatility.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Supports at 1.0675 & 1.06550

Resistances at 1.07000 , 1.07150 & 1.07250

Moving lower right now, but I don’t like the pattern – these two supports can underpin the pair to 1.08500 area.

So if selling it, take your profits just above the first support.

If buying it, wait for approach to the first support, and place stop bellow the second ( lower) one.

As I said previously, if they break below 1.06500 , road is open….but now timing comes into play….wasting time is going to help EUR.

[Swiss Frank]

Parial exit of partial long aud chf allocation here from last week…. See how on  the rest

[GVI Forex 2]

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[Mtl JP]

EYE ON YELLEN
–
Yellen telling Yahoo finance Jennifer Schonberger Senior Reporter on Jun 24 that

“They (The FED) certainly do not want to cause a recession when it is unnecessary.”

But janet does not explain the circumstances that would make the FED want to cause a recession, sly as she may be

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – WAITING FOR CPI

 

Chart shows key levels on both sides in a market that remains hyper sensitive to inflation data.

See a detail preview in Newsquawk’s Week Ahead

[michael Calif]

bigger picture, Euro futures are Long through August, likely reversing to Short around Sept 1   :Option Profile

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1.0717

Timely even though I am posting this later.

I wrote this to Bobby earlier

Easy buy at 92 stop below 85

Amazing Trader logic

[Mtl JP]

Earlier today
–
“Should the incoming data indicate that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2 percent goal, it will eventually become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming overly restrictive,” Bowman said in prepared remarks for a speech in London. “However, we are still not yet at the point where it is appropriate to lower the policy rate.” – jeff cox, cnbc

[SF Monedge]

At some point EurJpy is going to see 170.  It is getting bids right now but it is only a matter of time.  I will be a buyer on dips in Euro coming up but short side today.

[Author]

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