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[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – 1.09-1.10?

Chart is clear. If 1.0852 is firmly broken and sustained, risk is for a run at targets in the 1.09-10 area.

On the downside, expect support on dips as long as it trades above 1.08.

Note French 2nd round vote is on Sunday and price action suggests a view (and relief) that the far right will not win an outright majority.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX WEEKLY CHART – ON THE DEFENIVE

You don’t need a USDX chart to tell you the dollar has turned defensive vs, currencies such as the EURUSD (57.6% of the index) and GBPUSD.

So, it pays to take a look at a USDX weekly chart and what are the targets on the downside. In this regard, the one that stands out is 103.93 (and 103.35 below it), exposed as long as the index trades below 106, greater risk if it stays below 105..

Note USDX is often seen as a proxy for the EURUSD, which makes up 57.6% of the index.

 

[Mtl JP]

my guess is FED rate cut , regardless of july, sept or … is a non-story. it is priced in

as DLR keeps going down … vs eur, vs chf …

[SF Monedge]

There is absolutely zero interest in Dow 4100 and 4200 puts.

[SF Monedge]

Dow futures point of control is 39655.  Edging up to it again.  Lets see what they do.  Calls have a little strength, puts no dice overall.

[michael Calif]

revision:   any USD futures low is temporary; not selling today’s EURUSD rally    :gtwo3

[SF Monedge]

I bought Bitcoin at 25k a while back.  Really would love to see 35k again, which if I recall accurately Bobby also pointed out as a good area.  The range of value I estimated a long time ago is 35k low end and 150k high end with a fair value of 65k.  Seems to be going that way.  All we need is a few more major blockchain frauds to get us to 35k.

[SF Monedge]

Sterling covered a 50 point spread (25 each direction) the instant the job numbers came out and was done in less than 2 seconds.  Major market entities really only care about longer term positioning.  That activity was pre-established with zero regard for the data itself, purely to run stops and collect on the other side of the jolt.

[SF Monedge]

Apparently the market was listening to me and Dow stopped dead at 393.50 one minute after I said that lol.

[SF Monedge]

Dow  might peak around 393.70 if it gets there today.  Transferable to Euro.

[GVI Forex 2]

US bond yields at the lows, stocks up, fx paying attentuion, GBP still the outperformer (above 1.28)

[michael Calif]

USD futures will confirm a Low today    :gtwo3

[SF Monedge]

Point of control in Vix futures 13.25, and are trading above that so there is some apprehension in risk on views.  Vix futures have been very low and so this little pop is one of many indications of changing sentiment.

[GVI Forex 2]

Thanks Michael for your post…

Note most US traders will be looking for an early exit after the jobs data

CAD is the loser today after downside miss in its jobs data, GBP is the winner but so far unable to hold above 1.28

[michael Calif]

now selling today’s EURUSD rally    :gtwo3

[SF Monedge]

Most metrics including forwards, options, volume, open interest and the like are holding bid Sterling post data.

[GVI Forex 2]

Only NFP suprised on upside but last month downward revision.

Typical whipsaw… let the dust settle but report is being taken as dovish

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – POLITICAL STABILY VS POLITICAL INSTABILITY

One can make the argument that political stability in the UK after Labour;s landslide win contrasted with tht of Europe depending on the outcome of  Sunday’s French vote argues in favor of the GBP.

With that said EURGBP has been recovering ahead of these key events but is losing steam after .8500 held.

If looking at levels, they are at .8452-78, suggesting .8450-80 is a range with a break the trendline and .8450 more at risk as long as it stays below .8480.

[GVI Forex 2]

So the surprise in US data would be no surprise.

[GVI Forex 2]

U.S. economic surprises are at their most negative in two years.

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