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[GVI Forex 2]

US yields still ticking up

4.316% +0.048

USD catching a bid

GBPUSD below 1.28, see if EURUSD can follow below 1,08 (still above it and Monday’s gap low)

USDJPY above 161.40

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR – LAST LINE OF DEFENSE

USDJPY 161.40 IS THE LAST LINE OF DEFENSE AHEAD OF THE 161.94 HIGH, SO FAR HOLDING.

USE 161.50 AS WELL AS 161.50-162.00 IS THE NERVOUS ZONE.

[Mtl JP]

Yo! jerome …
some good news:
–
“John Deere to lay off roughly 600 employees from three US factories” – cnn

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – POWER OF 50

LEVELS ARE CLEAR AT 2348-51 and 2393-00

Break of 2348 and trendline would be needed to end the current uptrend.

Break of 2379 would be needed to end the current retracement

Make the market.

 

 

 

[Mtl JP]

(AP) – “Powell’s prepared testimony Tuesday did not provide what Wall Street investors are watching for most closely: Any clear indication of the timing for when the Fed might make its first rate cut. But the testimony will likely harden investors’ and economists’ expectations that the first reduction will come at the central bank’s September meeting.” – fwiw

I am on record that a sept cut would be , imo, a political cut.
so naturally I am sceptical of sept cut even though players may be gaming it

[SF Monedge]

Some internal metrics getting bid Euro here 0815, question is will it stick, a trade for the bold.

[GVI Forex 2]

Q&A just started but it doesn’t look like any surprises will come from Powell.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 15 MINUTE CHART – Look at this candle

Look at this chart and the 15 minute candle. It will take awhile to settle into tradable patterns.

The double top is at 1.08285

[Mtl JP]

in other words … a long time
for him to … “unduly weaken economic activity and employment,”

[GVI Forex 2]

Powell’s term ends April 2026.

[GVI Forex 2]

Powell basically sticking to his status quo message.

10-year 4.302%

Watch the Q&A

[Mtl JP]

YES YES YES !!!
to new trading opportunities :
–
Jeff Cox:
Trump’s increasing election odds after debate already affecting financial markets
JUL 8 20241:32 PM EDTUPDATED 2 HOURS AGO – Jeff Cox on cnbc

[SF Monedge]

Canadian Dollar looks like it is gaining interest in futures/options/forwards/open interest/some TSX stocks so it looks like UsdCad (3638) is more tilted to the offer for the moment.  Everything hinges on Powell.

[SF Monedge]

Prior post is regarding Australian Dollar

[GVI Forex 2]

Markets moive when there is a surprise —

If I was Powell I would do nothing to change market expectations but would avoid fueling them further.

So surprise would be anything that veers from status quo.

[SF Monedge]

Some metrics including options, forwards, open interest etc are showing a solid bid at current levels.  That matches the larger bid cycle but it is against the grain of the recent closer in selling.  Market is looking bid further out, so the pair either likely fails and dumps today post-Powell or goes on another run up the hill.

[GVI Forex 2]

It looks like 10 year 4.30% is sort of a pivoit

Last 4.291% +0.023

[GVI Forex 2]

One school of thought is that Powell will try to walk a tightrope and maintain the status quo in his testimony.
‘
If so, then how markets spin his testimony will dictate the reaction. Typically it would try to spin it dovish.

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 Year (CFD) – Price is inverted with yield

US yields ticking higher prices lower (4.301% +0.033) ahead of Powell when logic says they should be ticking lower on expectations of a dovish tilt

USD following but still a wait-and-see lull ahead of Powell.

[JMM USA]

Suggest watching the bond market ahead of and as/after Powell testifies

Currently yields ticking higher 4.295% up 0.027

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