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[GVI Forex 2]

US CPI (and weekly jobless claims)

Let’s keep it simple

Watch the core y/y rate

Watch 10 year 4.30% as sort of a yield pivot

Watch EURUSD 1.0850 as it will ulimately set the tone

It would take a lot to change expectations of 2 rate cuts this year, first on in Sept

[Mtl JP]

Dolan : ” futures stay wedded to two quarter-point Fed rate cuts this year, while 10-year Treasuries easily absorbed the latest sale of new paper”

i.e dlr on backfoot.

for now

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD WEEKLY – AMENDED

1.2860 is a breakout level on a daily chart but on a weekly chart the level is 1.2893. This is the level that blocks a run at 1.30 and above.

Needs to hold 1.2860 to keep a strong bid.

Supports: 1.2835-45-50, 1.2827 ahead of 1.28

Roll the dice next on US CPI.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

If Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell had any inkling of the June U.S. inflation readout when speaking to Congress this week, then today’s critical report doesn’t look like it will prove a game changer.

But given the buoyancy of U.S. (.SPX), opens new tab and world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS), opens new tab at record highs and pretty serene Treasury and interest rate markets, that doesn’t seem much of a bother for global markets right now.

Morning Bid: CPI caution seems no barrier, sterling surges

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD WEEKLY – Breakout?

Clear weekly trend

GBPUSD retracement proved to be a one day wonder.

1.2860 broken – breakout if it holds

Little on charts above 1.2860 until 1.3141 with 1.30 the key psychological target.

Supports: 1.2835-45-50, 1.2827 ahead of 1.28

 

Roll the dice next on US CPI.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Update :

Support at 1.08200 held overnight and we saw a new daily high.

If it would close this bar just right now as it is , It would be a perfect Pattern for another Leg Up.

Now we have to wait and see…

Be aware of sudden pull backs – Big Data today Economic Data Calendar

But this is very bullish now….

[GVI Forex 2]

USDX 4 HOUR CHART – KEY SUPPORT

1.0080 is key support – below it would imply EURUSD )57.6% of the index) establishes above 1.0850 and opens a void in USDX to the lower 104s and 103.93

Back above 104.95-00 would ease the risk

[michael Calif]

revision  –  no decline in Euro futures, EURUSD remains Long    :gtwo3

[Robinson Izuchukwu]

Hello Bobby, I want to appreciate you for your kind teach and mostly on FB page, it’s topnotch, I’ve learnt a lot from here and your FB page so far, I want to encourage you to keep up the good job, thank you

[GVI Forex 2]

Those signed up for the Trading Club. There is a follow up in the Trading Academy that takes using Bobby’s unique approach to trendlines to the next level with more to come.

[GVI Forex 2]

Global-View Trading Club

 

Global-View Trading Club

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Supports at : 1.08200 & 1.08000

Resistances at : 1.08450/500 , 1.08700 & 1.08900

The angle is right, Pattern very Bullish – two options :

It hits straight to Resistance at 1.08900 –  in that case probability is it will Fail to break

It takes a breather and few days of consolidation – in that case we go through the resistance and about another 200 pips up from these levels, just to meet the Major Resistance line at 1.11

[michael Calif]

decline of unknown magnitutde due any time in Euro futures    :gtwo3

[Mtl JP]

twistididee twistididaah
–
in WSJ:
What’s Behind Powell’s Latest Shift on Rates
Achieving lower inflation without a significant slowdown is ‘the No. 1 thing’ keeping the Fed chair up at night. – By Nick Timiraos, July 10, 2024 3:10

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPJPY DAILY CHART – ALL GREEN CANDLES

Look at this Chart as it speaks for itself.

As I have noted, when two currencies move in oppoitte directions like today (GBP up, JPY down), there is real money driving the moves.

Closest support is just below 205.

This also makes it difficult for the BoJ to intervene as it is more than just a USDJPY move.

[SF Monedge]

Correction, 2yr note just went bid overall.  Something to pay attention to.  102’08 futures should hold looking outward.

[SF Monedge]

Reaction to 10yr auction did not change the downward trajectory of notes/bond.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 WEEKLY CHART – ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER RECORD HIGH

OnLy one 3 week retracement all year

Only resistance is the new record high

Daily chart shows closest support at 5444

[SF Monedge]

Had a brief call with someone I respect tremendously yesterday (Jay) regarding EurGbp.  My metrics show the pair remaining offered on buy cycles toward 8450/60 area for now.

On Crypto and the FED and Stablecoin – It is difficult to substantiate the thought that all crypto vehicles will be buried once the use of Stablecoin is established, but the ones that survive will be Bitcoin and a few that help the poor in poor countries, or offer something solidly unique and useful within realistic value of use.

A lot of talk from politicians regarding bank stability should a shock arise during the Powell testimony.  As I noted yesterday, major US banks recently roundingly passed stress tests and technology is improving.  The one issue concerning me is the effect of a major cyber attack should it occur and/or flat out war with the US and another major power(s), which one would think is unlikely unless some insane person gains access to terrible weaponry.  Otherwise the banking industry looks strong.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD DAILY CHART – EMBRACE THE RETRACE

The reality of trading is that trends often need a retracement, even a minot one before it can make a run at a new high (or low).

This seems to have been the case with GBPUSD, which still needs to Get through 1.2846 to challenege the key target at 1.2860.

Note EURUSD lag as EURGBP retreats further from .8460 tested yesterday (last .8428).

[Author]

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